Extended SEIR Model for Health Policies Assessment Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Case of Argentina

Autores
Inthamoussou, Fernando Ariel; Valenciaga, Fernando; Nuñez, Sebastián; Garelli, Fabricio
Año de publicación
2021
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
This work presents an extended and age-band compartmentalised SEIR model that allows describing the spread evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and evaluating the effect of different detection rates, vaccination strategies or immunity periods. The model splits up the population into fifteen age groups of 5 years each, linked through a statistical interaction matrix that includes seventeen health states within each age group. An age-dependent transmission rate takes into account infectious between the groups as well the effect of interventions such as quarantines and mobility restrictions. Further, the proposal includes a nonlinear switched controller for model tuning purposes guarantying a simple and fast adjusting process. To illustrate the model potentials, the particular case of COVID-19 evolution in Argentina is analysed by simulation of three scenarios: (i) different detection levels combined with mobility restrictions, (ii) vaccination campaigns with re-opening of activities and (iii) vaccination campaigns with possible reinfections. The results exhibit how the model can aid the authorities in the decision making process.
Fil: Inthamoussou, Fernando Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales; Argentina
Fil: Valenciaga, Fernando. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales; Argentina
Fil: Nuñez, Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales; Argentina
Fil: Garelli, Fabricio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales; Argentina
Materia
COVID-19
EXTENDED SEIR MODEL
IMMUNITY LOSS
SARS-COV-2
VACCINATION
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/149298
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/149298
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Extended SEIR Model for Health Policies Assessment Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Case of ArgentinaInthamoussou, Fernando ArielValenciaga, FernandoNuñez, SebastiánGarelli, FabricioCOVID-19EXTENDED SEIR MODELIMMUNITY LOSSSARS-COV-2VACCINATIONhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/2.2https://purl.org/becyt/ford/2This work presents an extended and age-band compartmentalised SEIR model that allows describing the spread evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and evaluating the effect of different detection rates, vaccination strategies or immunity periods. The model splits up the population into fifteen age groups of 5 years each, linked through a statistical interaction matrix that includes seventeen health states within each age group. An age-dependent transmission rate takes into account infectious between the groups as well the effect of interventions such as quarantines and mobility restrictions. Further, the proposal includes a nonlinear switched controller for model tuning purposes guarantying a simple and fast adjusting process. To illustrate the model potentials, the particular case of COVID-19 evolution in Argentina is analysed by simulation of three scenarios: (i) different detection levels combined with mobility restrictions, (ii) vaccination campaigns with re-opening of activities and (iii) vaccination campaigns with possible reinfections. The results exhibit how the model can aid the authorities in the decision making process.Fil: Inthamoussou, Fernando Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales; ArgentinaFil: Valenciaga, Fernando. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales; ArgentinaFil: Nuñez, Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales; ArgentinaFil: Garelli, Fabricio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales; ArgentinaSpringer2021-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/149298Inthamoussou, Fernando Ariel; Valenciaga, Fernando; Nuñez, Sebastián; Garelli, Fabricio; Extended SEIR Model for Health Policies Assessment Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Case of Argentina; Springer; Journal of Healthcare Informatics Research; 12-2021; 1-212509-49712509-498XCONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://doi.org/10.1007/s41666-021-00110-xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s41666-021-00110-xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T15:15:23Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/149298instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 15:15:23.471CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Extended SEIR Model for Health Policies Assessment Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Case of Argentina
title Extended SEIR Model for Health Policies Assessment Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Case of Argentina
spellingShingle Extended SEIR Model for Health Policies Assessment Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Case of Argentina
Inthamoussou, Fernando Ariel
COVID-19
EXTENDED SEIR MODEL
IMMUNITY LOSS
SARS-COV-2
VACCINATION
title_short Extended SEIR Model for Health Policies Assessment Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Case of Argentina
title_full Extended SEIR Model for Health Policies Assessment Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Case of Argentina
title_fullStr Extended SEIR Model for Health Policies Assessment Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Case of Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Extended SEIR Model for Health Policies Assessment Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Case of Argentina
title_sort Extended SEIR Model for Health Policies Assessment Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Case of Argentina
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Inthamoussou, Fernando Ariel
Valenciaga, Fernando
Nuñez, Sebastián
Garelli, Fabricio
author Inthamoussou, Fernando Ariel
author_facet Inthamoussou, Fernando Ariel
Valenciaga, Fernando
Nuñez, Sebastián
Garelli, Fabricio
author_role author
author2 Valenciaga, Fernando
Nuñez, Sebastián
Garelli, Fabricio
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv COVID-19
EXTENDED SEIR MODEL
IMMUNITY LOSS
SARS-COV-2
VACCINATION
topic COVID-19
EXTENDED SEIR MODEL
IMMUNITY LOSS
SARS-COV-2
VACCINATION
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/2.2
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/2
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv This work presents an extended and age-band compartmentalised SEIR model that allows describing the spread evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and evaluating the effect of different detection rates, vaccination strategies or immunity periods. The model splits up the population into fifteen age groups of 5 years each, linked through a statistical interaction matrix that includes seventeen health states within each age group. An age-dependent transmission rate takes into account infectious between the groups as well the effect of interventions such as quarantines and mobility restrictions. Further, the proposal includes a nonlinear switched controller for model tuning purposes guarantying a simple and fast adjusting process. To illustrate the model potentials, the particular case of COVID-19 evolution in Argentina is analysed by simulation of three scenarios: (i) different detection levels combined with mobility restrictions, (ii) vaccination campaigns with re-opening of activities and (iii) vaccination campaigns with possible reinfections. The results exhibit how the model can aid the authorities in the decision making process.
Fil: Inthamoussou, Fernando Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales; Argentina
Fil: Valenciaga, Fernando. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales; Argentina
Fil: Nuñez, Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales; Argentina
Fil: Garelli, Fabricio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señales; Argentina
description This work presents an extended and age-band compartmentalised SEIR model that allows describing the spread evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and evaluating the effect of different detection rates, vaccination strategies or immunity periods. The model splits up the population into fifteen age groups of 5 years each, linked through a statistical interaction matrix that includes seventeen health states within each age group. An age-dependent transmission rate takes into account infectious between the groups as well the effect of interventions such as quarantines and mobility restrictions. Further, the proposal includes a nonlinear switched controller for model tuning purposes guarantying a simple and fast adjusting process. To illustrate the model potentials, the particular case of COVID-19 evolution in Argentina is analysed by simulation of three scenarios: (i) different detection levels combined with mobility restrictions, (ii) vaccination campaigns with re-opening of activities and (iii) vaccination campaigns with possible reinfections. The results exhibit how the model can aid the authorities in the decision making process.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-12
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/149298
Inthamoussou, Fernando Ariel; Valenciaga, Fernando; Nuñez, Sebastián; Garelli, Fabricio; Extended SEIR Model for Health Policies Assessment Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Case of Argentina; Springer; Journal of Healthcare Informatics Research; 12-2021; 1-21
2509-4971
2509-498X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/149298
identifier_str_mv Inthamoussou, Fernando Ariel; Valenciaga, Fernando; Nuñez, Sebastián; Garelli, Fabricio; Extended SEIR Model for Health Policies Assessment Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Case of Argentina; Springer; Journal of Healthcare Informatics Research; 12-2021; 1-21
2509-4971
2509-498X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://doi.org/10.1007/s41666-021-00110-x
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s41666-021-00110-x
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.22299

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