A comparison of statistical downscaling techniques for daily precipitation: results from the CORDEX flagship pilot study in South America

Autores
Bettolli, Maria Laura; Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel; Iturbide, Maialen; Baño Medina, Jorge; Huth, Radan; Solman, Silvina Alicia; Fernández, Jesús; da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio; Llopart, Marta; Lavín Gullón, Álvaro; Coppola, Erika; Chou, Sin Chan; Doyle, Moira Evelina; Olmo, Matías Ezequiel; Feijoó, Martín
Año de publicación
2019
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
documento de conferencia
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Southeast South America (SESA) is one of the regions of the planet where extreme precipitation events occur and have high impact on human activities. These extreme events result from the complex interactions of a broad range of scales, therefore their study, modelling and projections in a changing climate continue to be a challenging task. The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in South America (FPSSESA) addresses this topic in order to advance in the understanding and modelling of extreme precipitation events based on coordinated experiments using different downscaling approaches. In this work we present the results from the collaborative action to intercompare different statistical downscaling techniques in simulating daily precipitation in SESA with special focus on extremes. To this end, seven statistical downscaling models based on the regression and analog families were evaluated over SESA. The sensitivity to the different predictor and predictand datasets were tested using two reanalyses (ECMWF ERA-Interim and Japanese 55-year Reanalysis JRA-55) and two daily precipitation (station data and MSWEP) datasets. The models were calibrated and cross-validated during the 1979-2009 period and also evaluated in the independent warm season of 2009-2010. This season, with record of extreme precipitation events, is the target season chosen in the FPS-SESA to perform the dynamical downscaling simulations as well, and therefore it allows for comparisons between both approaches. The results show that the methods are more skillful when combined predictors including circulation variables at middle levels and local humidity at low levels of the atmosphere are considered. The performance of the models is also sensitive to reanalysis choice. The methods show overall good performance in simulating daily precipitation characteristics over the region, but no single model performs best over all validation metrics and aspects evaluated.
Fil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel. Universidad de Cantabria; España
Fil: Iturbide, Maialen. Universidad de Cantabria; España
Fil: Baño Medina, Jorge. Universidad de Cantabria; España
Fil: Huth, Radan. Karlova Univerzita (cuni); República Checa
Fil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Fernández, Jesús. Universidad de Cantabria; España
Fil: da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio. Universidade de Sao Paulo; Brasil
Fil: Llopart, Marta. Universidad Estadual de Sao Paulo; Brasil
Fil: Lavín Gullón, Álvaro. Universidad de Cantabria; España
Fil: Coppola, Erika. The Abdus Salam; Italia
Fil: Chou, Sin Chan. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos; Brasil
Fil: Doyle, Moira Evelina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Olmo, Matías Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Feijoó, Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
International Conference on Regional Climate
Beijing
China
World Climate Research Programme
Instituto Sueco de Meteorología e Hidrología
Materia
FLAGSHIP PILOT STUDY
PRECIPITATION EXTREMES
STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING
CORDEX
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/163712
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/163712
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repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling A comparison of statistical downscaling techniques for daily precipitation: results from the CORDEX flagship pilot study in South AmericaBettolli, Maria LauraGutiérrez Llorente, José ManuelIturbide, MaialenBaño Medina, JorgeHuth, RadanSolman, Silvina AliciaFernández, Jesúsda Rocha, Rosmeri PorfirioLlopart, MartaLavín Gullón, ÁlvaroCoppola, ErikaChou, Sin ChanDoyle, Moira EvelinaOlmo, Matías EzequielFeijoó, MartínFLAGSHIP PILOT STUDYPRECIPITATION EXTREMESSTATISTICAL DOWNSCALINGCORDEXhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Southeast South America (SESA) is one of the regions of the planet where extreme precipitation events occur and have high impact on human activities. These extreme events result from the complex interactions of a broad range of scales, therefore their study, modelling and projections in a changing climate continue to be a challenging task. The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in South America (FPSSESA) addresses this topic in order to advance in the understanding and modelling of extreme precipitation events based on coordinated experiments using different downscaling approaches. In this work we present the results from the collaborative action to intercompare different statistical downscaling techniques in simulating daily precipitation in SESA with special focus on extremes. To this end, seven statistical downscaling models based on the regression and analog families were evaluated over SESA. The sensitivity to the different predictor and predictand datasets were tested using two reanalyses (ECMWF ERA-Interim and Japanese 55-year Reanalysis JRA-55) and two daily precipitation (station data and MSWEP) datasets. The models were calibrated and cross-validated during the 1979-2009 period and also evaluated in the independent warm season of 2009-2010. This season, with record of extreme precipitation events, is the target season chosen in the FPS-SESA to perform the dynamical downscaling simulations as well, and therefore it allows for comparisons between both approaches. The results show that the methods are more skillful when combined predictors including circulation variables at middle levels and local humidity at low levels of the atmosphere are considered. The performance of the models is also sensitive to reanalysis choice. The methods show overall good performance in simulating daily precipitation characteristics over the region, but no single model performs best over all validation metrics and aspects evaluated.Fil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Iturbide, Maialen. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Baño Medina, Jorge. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Huth, Radan. Karlova Univerzita (cuni); República ChecaFil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Fernández, Jesús. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Llopart, Marta. Universidad Estadual de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Lavín Gullón, Álvaro. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Coppola, Erika. The Abdus Salam; ItaliaFil: Chou, Sin Chan. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos; BrasilFil: Doyle, Moira Evelina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Olmo, Matías Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Feijoó, Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaInternational Conference on Regional ClimateBeijingChinaWorld Climate Research ProgrammeInstituto Sueco de Meteorología e HidrologíaWorld Climate Research Programme2019info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObjectConferenciaBookhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_5794info:ar-repo/semantics/documentoDeConferenciaapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/163712A comparison of statistical downscaling techniques for daily precipitation: results from the CORDEX flagship pilot study in South America; International Conference on Regional Climate; Beijing; China; 2019; 88-88CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://icrc-cordex2019.cordex.org/Internacionalinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T09:49:29Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/163712instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 09:49:29.945CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv A comparison of statistical downscaling techniques for daily precipitation: results from the CORDEX flagship pilot study in South America
title A comparison of statistical downscaling techniques for daily precipitation: results from the CORDEX flagship pilot study in South America
spellingShingle A comparison of statistical downscaling techniques for daily precipitation: results from the CORDEX flagship pilot study in South America
Bettolli, Maria Laura
FLAGSHIP PILOT STUDY
PRECIPITATION EXTREMES
STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING
CORDEX
title_short A comparison of statistical downscaling techniques for daily precipitation: results from the CORDEX flagship pilot study in South America
title_full A comparison of statistical downscaling techniques for daily precipitation: results from the CORDEX flagship pilot study in South America
title_fullStr A comparison of statistical downscaling techniques for daily precipitation: results from the CORDEX flagship pilot study in South America
title_full_unstemmed A comparison of statistical downscaling techniques for daily precipitation: results from the CORDEX flagship pilot study in South America
title_sort A comparison of statistical downscaling techniques for daily precipitation: results from the CORDEX flagship pilot study in South America
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Bettolli, Maria Laura
Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel
Iturbide, Maialen
Baño Medina, Jorge
Huth, Radan
Solman, Silvina Alicia
Fernández, Jesús
da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio
Llopart, Marta
Lavín Gullón, Álvaro
Coppola, Erika
Chou, Sin Chan
Doyle, Moira Evelina
Olmo, Matías Ezequiel
Feijoó, Martín
author Bettolli, Maria Laura
author_facet Bettolli, Maria Laura
Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel
Iturbide, Maialen
Baño Medina, Jorge
Huth, Radan
Solman, Silvina Alicia
Fernández, Jesús
da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio
Llopart, Marta
Lavín Gullón, Álvaro
Coppola, Erika
Chou, Sin Chan
Doyle, Moira Evelina
Olmo, Matías Ezequiel
Feijoó, Martín
author_role author
author2 Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel
Iturbide, Maialen
Baño Medina, Jorge
Huth, Radan
Solman, Silvina Alicia
Fernández, Jesús
da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio
Llopart, Marta
Lavín Gullón, Álvaro
Coppola, Erika
Chou, Sin Chan
Doyle, Moira Evelina
Olmo, Matías Ezequiel
Feijoó, Martín
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv FLAGSHIP PILOT STUDY
PRECIPITATION EXTREMES
STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING
CORDEX
topic FLAGSHIP PILOT STUDY
PRECIPITATION EXTREMES
STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING
CORDEX
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Southeast South America (SESA) is one of the regions of the planet where extreme precipitation events occur and have high impact on human activities. These extreme events result from the complex interactions of a broad range of scales, therefore their study, modelling and projections in a changing climate continue to be a challenging task. The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in South America (FPSSESA) addresses this topic in order to advance in the understanding and modelling of extreme precipitation events based on coordinated experiments using different downscaling approaches. In this work we present the results from the collaborative action to intercompare different statistical downscaling techniques in simulating daily precipitation in SESA with special focus on extremes. To this end, seven statistical downscaling models based on the regression and analog families were evaluated over SESA. The sensitivity to the different predictor and predictand datasets were tested using two reanalyses (ECMWF ERA-Interim and Japanese 55-year Reanalysis JRA-55) and two daily precipitation (station data and MSWEP) datasets. The models were calibrated and cross-validated during the 1979-2009 period and also evaluated in the independent warm season of 2009-2010. This season, with record of extreme precipitation events, is the target season chosen in the FPS-SESA to perform the dynamical downscaling simulations as well, and therefore it allows for comparisons between both approaches. The results show that the methods are more skillful when combined predictors including circulation variables at middle levels and local humidity at low levels of the atmosphere are considered. The performance of the models is also sensitive to reanalysis choice. The methods show overall good performance in simulating daily precipitation characteristics over the region, but no single model performs best over all validation metrics and aspects evaluated.
Fil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel. Universidad de Cantabria; España
Fil: Iturbide, Maialen. Universidad de Cantabria; España
Fil: Baño Medina, Jorge. Universidad de Cantabria; España
Fil: Huth, Radan. Karlova Univerzita (cuni); República Checa
Fil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Fernández, Jesús. Universidad de Cantabria; España
Fil: da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio. Universidade de Sao Paulo; Brasil
Fil: Llopart, Marta. Universidad Estadual de Sao Paulo; Brasil
Fil: Lavín Gullón, Álvaro. Universidad de Cantabria; España
Fil: Coppola, Erika. The Abdus Salam; Italia
Fil: Chou, Sin Chan. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos; Brasil
Fil: Doyle, Moira Evelina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Olmo, Matías Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Feijoó, Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
International Conference on Regional Climate
Beijing
China
World Climate Research Programme
Instituto Sueco de Meteorología e Hidrología
description Southeast South America (SESA) is one of the regions of the planet where extreme precipitation events occur and have high impact on human activities. These extreme events result from the complex interactions of a broad range of scales, therefore their study, modelling and projections in a changing climate continue to be a challenging task. The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in South America (FPSSESA) addresses this topic in order to advance in the understanding and modelling of extreme precipitation events based on coordinated experiments using different downscaling approaches. In this work we present the results from the collaborative action to intercompare different statistical downscaling techniques in simulating daily precipitation in SESA with special focus on extremes. To this end, seven statistical downscaling models based on the regression and analog families were evaluated over SESA. The sensitivity to the different predictor and predictand datasets were tested using two reanalyses (ECMWF ERA-Interim and Japanese 55-year Reanalysis JRA-55) and two daily precipitation (station data and MSWEP) datasets. The models were calibrated and cross-validated during the 1979-2009 period and also evaluated in the independent warm season of 2009-2010. This season, with record of extreme precipitation events, is the target season chosen in the FPS-SESA to perform the dynamical downscaling simulations as well, and therefore it allows for comparisons between both approaches. The results show that the methods are more skillful when combined predictors including circulation variables at middle levels and local humidity at low levels of the atmosphere are considered. The performance of the models is also sensitive to reanalysis choice. The methods show overall good performance in simulating daily precipitation characteristics over the region, but no single model performs best over all validation metrics and aspects evaluated.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
Conferencia
Book
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_5794
info:ar-repo/semantics/documentoDeConferencia
status_str publishedVersion
format conferenceObject
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/163712
A comparison of statistical downscaling techniques for daily precipitation: results from the CORDEX flagship pilot study in South America; International Conference on Regional Climate; Beijing; China; 2019; 88-88
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/163712
identifier_str_mv A comparison of statistical downscaling techniques for daily precipitation: results from the CORDEX flagship pilot study in South America; International Conference on Regional Climate; Beijing; China; 2019; 88-88
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://icrc-cordex2019.cordex.org/
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eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
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application/pdf
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dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv Internacional
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv World Climate Research Programme
publisher.none.fl_str_mv World Climate Research Programme
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reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
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repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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