Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia

Autores
Rashid, Irfan Ur; Abid, Muhammad Adnan; Osman, Marisol; Kucharski, Fred; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Weisheimer, Antje; Almazroui, Mansour; Torres Alavez, José Abraham; Afzaal, Muhammad
Año de publicación
2024
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region.
Fil: Rashid, Irfan Ur. Pakistan Meteorological Departmen; Pakistán
Fil: Abid, Muhammad Adnan. University of Oxford. Department of Physics; Reino Unido. The Abdus Salam; Italia
Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Karlsruher Institut für Technologie; Alemania
Fil: Kucharski, Fred. The Abdus Salam; Italia
Fil: Ashfaq, Moetasim. Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Estados Unidos
Fil: Weisheimer, Antje. University of Oxford. Department of Physics; Reino Unido. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Reino Unido
Fil: Almazroui, Mansour. King Abdulaziz University; Arabia Saudita. University of East Anglia; Reino Unido
Fil: Torres Alavez, José Abraham. Danish Meteorological Institute; Dinamarca
Fil: Afzaal, Muhammad. Pakistan Meteorological Department; Pakistán
Materia
PREDICTABILITY
ECMWF-SEAS5
ENSO
TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY
WSA
LA NIÑA
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/261013
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/261013
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South AsiaRashid, Irfan UrAbid, Muhammad AdnanOsman, MarisolKucharski, FredAshfaq, MoetasimWeisheimer, AntjeAlmazroui, MansourTorres Alavez, José AbrahamAfzaal, MuhammadPREDICTABILITYECMWF-SEAS5ENSOTEMPERATURE VARIABILITYWSALA NIÑAhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region.Fil: Rashid, Irfan Ur. Pakistan Meteorological Departmen; PakistánFil: Abid, Muhammad Adnan. University of Oxford. Department of Physics; Reino Unido. The Abdus Salam; ItaliaFil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Karlsruher Institut für Technologie; AlemaniaFil: Kucharski, Fred. The Abdus Salam; ItaliaFil: Ashfaq, Moetasim. Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Weisheimer, Antje. University of Oxford. Department of Physics; Reino Unido. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Reino UnidoFil: Almazroui, Mansour. King Abdulaziz University; Arabia Saudita. University of East Anglia; Reino UnidoFil: Torres Alavez, José Abraham. Danish Meteorological Institute; DinamarcaFil: Afzaal, Muhammad. Pakistan Meteorological Department; PakistánSpringer2024-08info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/261013Rashid, Irfan Ur; Abid, Muhammad Adnan; Osman, Marisol; Kucharski, Fred; Ashfaq, Moetasim; et al.; Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 62; 9; 8-2024; 9361-93750930-7575CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-024-07399-5info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-024-07399-5info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T11:37:27Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/261013instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 11:37:27.747CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia
title Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia
spellingShingle Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia
Rashid, Irfan Ur
PREDICTABILITY
ECMWF-SEAS5
ENSO
TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY
WSA
LA NIÑA
title_short Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia
title_full Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia
title_fullStr Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia
title_full_unstemmed Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia
title_sort Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Rashid, Irfan Ur
Abid, Muhammad Adnan
Osman, Marisol
Kucharski, Fred
Ashfaq, Moetasim
Weisheimer, Antje
Almazroui, Mansour
Torres Alavez, José Abraham
Afzaal, Muhammad
author Rashid, Irfan Ur
author_facet Rashid, Irfan Ur
Abid, Muhammad Adnan
Osman, Marisol
Kucharski, Fred
Ashfaq, Moetasim
Weisheimer, Antje
Almazroui, Mansour
Torres Alavez, José Abraham
Afzaal, Muhammad
author_role author
author2 Abid, Muhammad Adnan
Osman, Marisol
Kucharski, Fred
Ashfaq, Moetasim
Weisheimer, Antje
Almazroui, Mansour
Torres Alavez, José Abraham
Afzaal, Muhammad
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv PREDICTABILITY
ECMWF-SEAS5
ENSO
TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY
WSA
LA NIÑA
topic PREDICTABILITY
ECMWF-SEAS5
ENSO
TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY
WSA
LA NIÑA
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region.
Fil: Rashid, Irfan Ur. Pakistan Meteorological Departmen; Pakistán
Fil: Abid, Muhammad Adnan. University of Oxford. Department of Physics; Reino Unido. The Abdus Salam; Italia
Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Karlsruher Institut für Technologie; Alemania
Fil: Kucharski, Fred. The Abdus Salam; Italia
Fil: Ashfaq, Moetasim. Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Estados Unidos
Fil: Weisheimer, Antje. University of Oxford. Department of Physics; Reino Unido. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Reino Unido
Fil: Almazroui, Mansour. King Abdulaziz University; Arabia Saudita. University of East Anglia; Reino Unido
Fil: Torres Alavez, José Abraham. Danish Meteorological Institute; Dinamarca
Fil: Afzaal, Muhammad. Pakistan Meteorological Department; Pakistán
description Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024-08
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/261013
Rashid, Irfan Ur; Abid, Muhammad Adnan; Osman, Marisol; Kucharski, Fred; Ashfaq, Moetasim; et al.; Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 62; 9; 8-2024; 9361-9375
0930-7575
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/261013
identifier_str_mv Rashid, Irfan Ur; Abid, Muhammad Adnan; Osman, Marisol; Kucharski, Fred; Ashfaq, Moetasim; et al.; Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 62; 9; 8-2024; 9361-9375
0930-7575
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-024-07399-5
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-024-07399-5
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 12.982451

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