Contributions of different time scales to extreme Paraná floods

Autores
Antico, Andres; Torres, Maria Eugenia; Diaz, Henry F.
Año de publicación
2015
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The present study provides the first complete examination of how different time scales contributed to generate the four largest observed floods of the Paraná River (1905, 1983, 1992 and 1998). This inspection is based on the results from a previous study where an empirical method was used to decompose a 1904-2010 Paraná flow record (monthly means) into several physically meaningful oscillations with distinctive time scales or periods (few months to decades), and a secular increasing trend. We show that all the oscillations largely contributed to the four extreme floods, except an 18-year cycle that did not contribute to the 1992 flood. Sporadic intense constructive interferences between interannual-to-interdecadal (3-85 years) cycles determined (i) the favorable conditions for extreme-flood occurrence, and (ii) notable differences among floods. Indeed, in 1983, the largest flood ever recorded resulted mainly from an exceptionally strong constructive interference between cycles of 3-5, 9, 18 and 31-85 years, which are related to El Niño events, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, and the Pacific Ocean, respectively. Contributions of the 31-85-year cycle to the two biggest floods (1983 and 1992) are larger than the contributions of the secular upward trend, suggesting the importance of this slow oscillation in flood formation processes. The implications of our results for understanding and predicting Paraná floods are discussed.
Fil: Antico, Andres. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Torres, Maria Eugenia. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ingeniería; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Diaz, Henry F.. State University of Colorado Boulder; Estados Unidos
Materia
Parana River
Extreme Floods
Empirical Time-Scale Decomposition
Climate Oscillations
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/45961
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/45961
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Contributions of different time scales to extreme Paraná floodsAntico, AndresTorres, Maria EugeniaDiaz, Henry F.Parana RiverExtreme FloodsEmpirical Time-Scale DecompositionClimate Oscillationshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The present study provides the first complete examination of how different time scales contributed to generate the four largest observed floods of the Paraná River (1905, 1983, 1992 and 1998). This inspection is based on the results from a previous study where an empirical method was used to decompose a 1904-2010 Paraná flow record (monthly means) into several physically meaningful oscillations with distinctive time scales or periods (few months to decades), and a secular increasing trend. We show that all the oscillations largely contributed to the four extreme floods, except an 18-year cycle that did not contribute to the 1992 flood. Sporadic intense constructive interferences between interannual-to-interdecadal (3-85 years) cycles determined (i) the favorable conditions for extreme-flood occurrence, and (ii) notable differences among floods. Indeed, in 1983, the largest flood ever recorded resulted mainly from an exceptionally strong constructive interference between cycles of 3-5, 9, 18 and 31-85 years, which are related to El Niño events, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, and the Pacific Ocean, respectively. Contributions of the 31-85-year cycle to the two biggest floods (1983 and 1992) are larger than the contributions of the secular upward trend, suggesting the importance of this slow oscillation in flood formation processes. The implications of our results for understanding and predicting Paraná floods are discussed.Fil: Antico, Andres. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; ArgentinaFil: Torres, Maria Eugenia. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ingeniería; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; ArgentinaFil: Diaz, Henry F.. State University of Colorado Boulder; Estados UnidosSpringer2015-06info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/45961Antico, Andres; Torres, Maria Eugenia; Diaz, Henry F.; Contributions of different time scales to extreme Paraná floods; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 46; 11-12; 6-2015; 3785-37920930-7575CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-015-2804-xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-015-2804-xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:34:02Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/45961instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:34:02.397CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Contributions of different time scales to extreme Paraná floods
title Contributions of different time scales to extreme Paraná floods
spellingShingle Contributions of different time scales to extreme Paraná floods
Antico, Andres
Parana River
Extreme Floods
Empirical Time-Scale Decomposition
Climate Oscillations
title_short Contributions of different time scales to extreme Paraná floods
title_full Contributions of different time scales to extreme Paraná floods
title_fullStr Contributions of different time scales to extreme Paraná floods
title_full_unstemmed Contributions of different time scales to extreme Paraná floods
title_sort Contributions of different time scales to extreme Paraná floods
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Antico, Andres
Torres, Maria Eugenia
Diaz, Henry F.
author Antico, Andres
author_facet Antico, Andres
Torres, Maria Eugenia
Diaz, Henry F.
author_role author
author2 Torres, Maria Eugenia
Diaz, Henry F.
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Parana River
Extreme Floods
Empirical Time-Scale Decomposition
Climate Oscillations
topic Parana River
Extreme Floods
Empirical Time-Scale Decomposition
Climate Oscillations
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The present study provides the first complete examination of how different time scales contributed to generate the four largest observed floods of the Paraná River (1905, 1983, 1992 and 1998). This inspection is based on the results from a previous study where an empirical method was used to decompose a 1904-2010 Paraná flow record (monthly means) into several physically meaningful oscillations with distinctive time scales or periods (few months to decades), and a secular increasing trend. We show that all the oscillations largely contributed to the four extreme floods, except an 18-year cycle that did not contribute to the 1992 flood. Sporadic intense constructive interferences between interannual-to-interdecadal (3-85 years) cycles determined (i) the favorable conditions for extreme-flood occurrence, and (ii) notable differences among floods. Indeed, in 1983, the largest flood ever recorded resulted mainly from an exceptionally strong constructive interference between cycles of 3-5, 9, 18 and 31-85 years, which are related to El Niño events, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, and the Pacific Ocean, respectively. Contributions of the 31-85-year cycle to the two biggest floods (1983 and 1992) are larger than the contributions of the secular upward trend, suggesting the importance of this slow oscillation in flood formation processes. The implications of our results for understanding and predicting Paraná floods are discussed.
Fil: Antico, Andres. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Torres, Maria Eugenia. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ingeniería; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Diaz, Henry F.. State University of Colorado Boulder; Estados Unidos
description The present study provides the first complete examination of how different time scales contributed to generate the four largest observed floods of the Paraná River (1905, 1983, 1992 and 1998). This inspection is based on the results from a previous study where an empirical method was used to decompose a 1904-2010 Paraná flow record (monthly means) into several physically meaningful oscillations with distinctive time scales or periods (few months to decades), and a secular increasing trend. We show that all the oscillations largely contributed to the four extreme floods, except an 18-year cycle that did not contribute to the 1992 flood. Sporadic intense constructive interferences between interannual-to-interdecadal (3-85 years) cycles determined (i) the favorable conditions for extreme-flood occurrence, and (ii) notable differences among floods. Indeed, in 1983, the largest flood ever recorded resulted mainly from an exceptionally strong constructive interference between cycles of 3-5, 9, 18 and 31-85 years, which are related to El Niño events, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, and the Pacific Ocean, respectively. Contributions of the 31-85-year cycle to the two biggest floods (1983 and 1992) are larger than the contributions of the secular upward trend, suggesting the importance of this slow oscillation in flood formation processes. The implications of our results for understanding and predicting Paraná floods are discussed.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-06
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/45961
Antico, Andres; Torres, Maria Eugenia; Diaz, Henry F.; Contributions of different time scales to extreme Paraná floods; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 46; 11-12; 6-2015; 3785-3792
0930-7575
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/45961
identifier_str_mv Antico, Andres; Torres, Maria Eugenia; Diaz, Henry F.; Contributions of different time scales to extreme Paraná floods; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 46; 11-12; 6-2015; 3785-3792
0930-7575
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-015-2804-x
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-015-2804-x
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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