Effect of Production Costs on the Price per Ton of Sugarcane: The Case of Brazil

Autores
Oliveira, Sandra Cristina de; Rodrigues de Amorim, Fernando; Ceron Barbosa, Cássio; Galvez de Andrade, Alequexandre; Del Giorgio Solfa, Federico
Año de publicación
2022
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The costs of agricultural inputs added to those of labor represent almost a third of the total cost of Brazilian sugarcane production. This study analyzes the behavior of the price per ton of sugarcane in Brazil, relating it to the main production costs of this cultivation. Twelve price indicators from January 2015 to December 2020 were evaluated. First, the data were adjusted to a multiple linear regression model to identify the significant variables on variation in the price per ton of sugarcane. Then, the Monte Carlo simulation was used to measure the level of certainty of occurrence of these variables, and forecasts were obtained from the adjustment of ARIMA models. The results showed the influence of the costs of diesel oil, two agricultural pesticides, and daily laborers on the price of sugarcane, besides an increasing trend of its, providing relevant short-term projections for decision-making about investments in the agribusiness sector.
Universidad Nacional de La Plata
Materia
Ciencias Económicas
Ciencias Sociales
Brazilian agribusiness
sugarcane production
linear regression
Monte Carlo simulation
ARIMA models
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Repositorio
SEDICI (UNLP)
Institución
Universidad Nacional de La Plata
OAI Identificador
oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/142724
Acceder
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network_name_str SEDICI (UNLP)
spelling Effect of Production Costs on the Price per Ton of Sugarcane: The Case of BrazilOliveira, Sandra Cristina deRodrigues de Amorim, FernandoCeron Barbosa, CássioGalvez de Andrade, AlequexandreDel Giorgio Solfa, FedericoCiencias EconómicasCiencias SocialesBrazilian agribusinesssugarcane productionlinear regressionMonte Carlo simulationARIMA modelsThe costs of agricultural inputs added to those of labor represent almost a third of the total cost of Brazilian sugarcane production. This study analyzes the behavior of the price per ton of sugarcane in Brazil, relating it to the main production costs of this cultivation. Twelve price indicators from January 2015 to December 2020 were evaluated. First, the data were adjusted to a multiple linear regression model to identify the significant variables on variation in the price per ton of sugarcane. Then, the Monte Carlo simulation was used to measure the level of certainty of occurrence of these variables, and forecasts were obtained from the adjustment of ARIMA models. The results showed the influence of the costs of diesel oil, two agricultural pesticides, and daily laborers on the price of sugarcane, besides an increasing trend of its, providing relevant short-term projections for decision-making about investments in the agribusiness sector.Universidad Nacional de La Plata2022-09-23info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArticulohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdf15-27http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/142724enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/2324-8033info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.11114/ijsss.v10i6.5688info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)instname:Universidad Nacional de La Platainstacron:UNLP2025-10-15T11:28:20Zoai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/142724Institucionalhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/oai/snrdalira@sedici.unlp.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:13292025-10-15 11:28:20.35SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Platafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Effect of Production Costs on the Price per Ton of Sugarcane: The Case of Brazil
title Effect of Production Costs on the Price per Ton of Sugarcane: The Case of Brazil
spellingShingle Effect of Production Costs on the Price per Ton of Sugarcane: The Case of Brazil
Oliveira, Sandra Cristina de
Ciencias Económicas
Ciencias Sociales
Brazilian agribusiness
sugarcane production
linear regression
Monte Carlo simulation
ARIMA models
title_short Effect of Production Costs on the Price per Ton of Sugarcane: The Case of Brazil
title_full Effect of Production Costs on the Price per Ton of Sugarcane: The Case of Brazil
title_fullStr Effect of Production Costs on the Price per Ton of Sugarcane: The Case of Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Effect of Production Costs on the Price per Ton of Sugarcane: The Case of Brazil
title_sort Effect of Production Costs on the Price per Ton of Sugarcane: The Case of Brazil
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Oliveira, Sandra Cristina de
Rodrigues de Amorim, Fernando
Ceron Barbosa, Cássio
Galvez de Andrade, Alequexandre
Del Giorgio Solfa, Federico
author Oliveira, Sandra Cristina de
author_facet Oliveira, Sandra Cristina de
Rodrigues de Amorim, Fernando
Ceron Barbosa, Cássio
Galvez de Andrade, Alequexandre
Del Giorgio Solfa, Federico
author_role author
author2 Rodrigues de Amorim, Fernando
Ceron Barbosa, Cássio
Galvez de Andrade, Alequexandre
Del Giorgio Solfa, Federico
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Ciencias Económicas
Ciencias Sociales
Brazilian agribusiness
sugarcane production
linear regression
Monte Carlo simulation
ARIMA models
topic Ciencias Económicas
Ciencias Sociales
Brazilian agribusiness
sugarcane production
linear regression
Monte Carlo simulation
ARIMA models
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The costs of agricultural inputs added to those of labor represent almost a third of the total cost of Brazilian sugarcane production. This study analyzes the behavior of the price per ton of sugarcane in Brazil, relating it to the main production costs of this cultivation. Twelve price indicators from January 2015 to December 2020 were evaluated. First, the data were adjusted to a multiple linear regression model to identify the significant variables on variation in the price per ton of sugarcane. Then, the Monte Carlo simulation was used to measure the level of certainty of occurrence of these variables, and forecasts were obtained from the adjustment of ARIMA models. The results showed the influence of the costs of diesel oil, two agricultural pesticides, and daily laborers on the price of sugarcane, besides an increasing trend of its, providing relevant short-term projections for decision-making about investments in the agribusiness sector.
Universidad Nacional de La Plata
description The costs of agricultural inputs added to those of labor represent almost a third of the total cost of Brazilian sugarcane production. This study analyzes the behavior of the price per ton of sugarcane in Brazil, relating it to the main production costs of this cultivation. Twelve price indicators from January 2015 to December 2020 were evaluated. First, the data were adjusted to a multiple linear regression model to identify the significant variables on variation in the price per ton of sugarcane. Then, the Monte Carlo simulation was used to measure the level of certainty of occurrence of these variables, and forecasts were obtained from the adjustment of ARIMA models. The results showed the influence of the costs of diesel oil, two agricultural pesticides, and daily laborers on the price of sugarcane, besides an increasing trend of its, providing relevant short-term projections for decision-making about investments in the agribusiness sector.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-09-23
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Articulo
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/142724
url http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/142724
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/2324-8033
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.11114/ijsss.v10i6.5688
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
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dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)
instname:Universidad Nacional de La Plata
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reponame_str SEDICI (UNLP)
collection SEDICI (UNLP)
instname_str Universidad Nacional de La Plata
instacron_str UNLP
institution UNLP
repository.name.fl_str_mv SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Plata
repository.mail.fl_str_mv alira@sedici.unlp.edu.ar
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