Impact of climate change on the distribution of a giant land snail from South America: predicting future trends for setting conservation priorities on native malacofauna

Autores
Beltramino, Ariel Aníbal; Vogler, Roberto Eugenio; Gutiérrez Gregoric, Diego Eduardo; Rumi Macchi Zubiaurre, Alejandra
Año de publicación
2015
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Many land snails are vulnerable to climate change as a consequence of small distribution ranges and poor dispersal. South America is a diverse region in terms of land snail fauna, but studies about the impacts of climate change on molluscan biodiversity are virtually nonexistent. Bioclimatic models provide an important tool to assess how habitat suitability may change in a warming planet. In this study, we examine potential impacts of climate change on a giant land snail (Megalobulimus sanctipauli) from the Atlantic Forest to predict future shifts in its potential distribution, and to identify protected areas that may contain suitable habitat for setting conservation priorities. Using a maximum entropy algorithm, we modeled the species' potential distribution across South America under current climatic conditions and projected the results onto two climate change scenarios for two time frames. A 2.17 % of South America on the Atlantic Forest was predicted to be currently suitable for the species, comprising the border area among Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. Prognosis of future distribution showed a trend to a northern retraction, but a southern expansion of current potential range. More than 150 protected areas were identified to contain climatically suitable habitat for the species, but on the less optimistic outlook only ~1545 km 2 of protected areas (0.009 % of South America) would remain suitable for the species by the end of the century. Our findings are expected to improve understanding of climate change impacts on native giant land snails and to contribute in conservation efforts on this malacofauna.
Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo
Materia
Zoología
Protected area
Potential distribution
Suitable area
Land snail
Future distribution
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Repositorio
SEDICI (UNLP)
Institución
Universidad Nacional de La Plata
OAI Identificador
oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/123429

id SEDICI_8115d5f21f5514d0ab3941b0620736f3
oai_identifier_str oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/123429
network_acronym_str SEDICI
repository_id_str 1329
network_name_str SEDICI (UNLP)
spelling Impact of climate change on the distribution of a giant land snail from South America: predicting future trends for setting conservation priorities on native malacofaunaBeltramino, Ariel AníbalVogler, Roberto EugenioGutiérrez Gregoric, Diego EduardoRumi Macchi Zubiaurre, AlejandraZoologíaProtected areaPotential distributionSuitable areaLand snailFuture distributionMany land snails are vulnerable to climate change as a consequence of small distribution ranges and poor dispersal. South America is a diverse region in terms of land snail fauna, but studies about the impacts of climate change on molluscan biodiversity are virtually nonexistent. Bioclimatic models provide an important tool to assess how habitat suitability may change in a warming planet. In this study, we examine potential impacts of climate change on a giant land snail (Megalobulimus sanctipauli) from the Atlantic Forest to predict future shifts in its potential distribution, and to identify protected areas that may contain suitable habitat for setting conservation priorities. Using a maximum entropy algorithm, we modeled the species' potential distribution across South America under current climatic conditions and projected the results onto two climate change scenarios for two time frames. A 2.17 % of South America on the Atlantic Forest was predicted to be currently suitable for the species, comprising the border area among Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. Prognosis of future distribution showed a trend to a northern retraction, but a southern expansion of current potential range. More than 150 protected areas were identified to contain climatically suitable habitat for the species, but on the less optimistic outlook only ~1545 km 2 of protected areas (0.009 % of South America) would remain suitable for the species by the end of the century. Our findings are expected to improve understanding of climate change impacts on native giant land snails and to contribute in conservation efforts on this malacofauna.Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo2015info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArticulohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdf621-633http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/123429enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/0165-0009info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1573-1480info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10584-015-1405-3info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)instname:Universidad Nacional de La Platainstacron:UNLP2025-09-29T11:29:28Zoai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/123429Institucionalhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/oai/snrdalira@sedici.unlp.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:13292025-09-29 11:29:28.794SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Platafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Impact of climate change on the distribution of a giant land snail from South America: predicting future trends for setting conservation priorities on native malacofauna
title Impact of climate change on the distribution of a giant land snail from South America: predicting future trends for setting conservation priorities on native malacofauna
spellingShingle Impact of climate change on the distribution of a giant land snail from South America: predicting future trends for setting conservation priorities on native malacofauna
Beltramino, Ariel Aníbal
Zoología
Protected area
Potential distribution
Suitable area
Land snail
Future distribution
title_short Impact of climate change on the distribution of a giant land snail from South America: predicting future trends for setting conservation priorities on native malacofauna
title_full Impact of climate change on the distribution of a giant land snail from South America: predicting future trends for setting conservation priorities on native malacofauna
title_fullStr Impact of climate change on the distribution of a giant land snail from South America: predicting future trends for setting conservation priorities on native malacofauna
title_full_unstemmed Impact of climate change on the distribution of a giant land snail from South America: predicting future trends for setting conservation priorities on native malacofauna
title_sort Impact of climate change on the distribution of a giant land snail from South America: predicting future trends for setting conservation priorities on native malacofauna
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Beltramino, Ariel Aníbal
Vogler, Roberto Eugenio
Gutiérrez Gregoric, Diego Eduardo
Rumi Macchi Zubiaurre, Alejandra
author Beltramino, Ariel Aníbal
author_facet Beltramino, Ariel Aníbal
Vogler, Roberto Eugenio
Gutiérrez Gregoric, Diego Eduardo
Rumi Macchi Zubiaurre, Alejandra
author_role author
author2 Vogler, Roberto Eugenio
Gutiérrez Gregoric, Diego Eduardo
Rumi Macchi Zubiaurre, Alejandra
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Zoología
Protected area
Potential distribution
Suitable area
Land snail
Future distribution
topic Zoología
Protected area
Potential distribution
Suitable area
Land snail
Future distribution
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Many land snails are vulnerable to climate change as a consequence of small distribution ranges and poor dispersal. South America is a diverse region in terms of land snail fauna, but studies about the impacts of climate change on molluscan biodiversity are virtually nonexistent. Bioclimatic models provide an important tool to assess how habitat suitability may change in a warming planet. In this study, we examine potential impacts of climate change on a giant land snail (Megalobulimus sanctipauli) from the Atlantic Forest to predict future shifts in its potential distribution, and to identify protected areas that may contain suitable habitat for setting conservation priorities. Using a maximum entropy algorithm, we modeled the species' potential distribution across South America under current climatic conditions and projected the results onto two climate change scenarios for two time frames. A 2.17 % of South America on the Atlantic Forest was predicted to be currently suitable for the species, comprising the border area among Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. Prognosis of future distribution showed a trend to a northern retraction, but a southern expansion of current potential range. More than 150 protected areas were identified to contain climatically suitable habitat for the species, but on the less optimistic outlook only ~1545 km 2 of protected areas (0.009 % of South America) would remain suitable for the species by the end of the century. Our findings are expected to improve understanding of climate change impacts on native giant land snails and to contribute in conservation efforts on this malacofauna.
Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo
description Many land snails are vulnerable to climate change as a consequence of small distribution ranges and poor dispersal. South America is a diverse region in terms of land snail fauna, but studies about the impacts of climate change on molluscan biodiversity are virtually nonexistent. Bioclimatic models provide an important tool to assess how habitat suitability may change in a warming planet. In this study, we examine potential impacts of climate change on a giant land snail (Megalobulimus sanctipauli) from the Atlantic Forest to predict future shifts in its potential distribution, and to identify protected areas that may contain suitable habitat for setting conservation priorities. Using a maximum entropy algorithm, we modeled the species' potential distribution across South America under current climatic conditions and projected the results onto two climate change scenarios for two time frames. A 2.17 % of South America on the Atlantic Forest was predicted to be currently suitable for the species, comprising the border area among Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. Prognosis of future distribution showed a trend to a northern retraction, but a southern expansion of current potential range. More than 150 protected areas were identified to contain climatically suitable habitat for the species, but on the less optimistic outlook only ~1545 km 2 of protected areas (0.009 % of South America) would remain suitable for the species by the end of the century. Our findings are expected to improve understanding of climate change impacts on native giant land snails and to contribute in conservation efforts on this malacofauna.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Articulo
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/123429
url http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/123429
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/0165-0009
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1573-1480
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10584-015-1405-3
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
621-633
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)
instname:Universidad Nacional de La Plata
instacron:UNLP
reponame_str SEDICI (UNLP)
collection SEDICI (UNLP)
instname_str Universidad Nacional de La Plata
instacron_str UNLP
institution UNLP
repository.name.fl_str_mv SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Plata
repository.mail.fl_str_mv alira@sedici.unlp.edu.ar
_version_ 1844616173698678784
score 13.070432