Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities

Autores
Aromí, José Daniel
Año de publicación
2021
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión aceptada
Descripción
Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina. Facultad de Cienicas Económicas. Departamento de Investigación Francisco Valsecchi; Argentina
Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires; Argentina
Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Abstract: Using a sample covering 50 advanced and emerging economies over 1990–2017, it is found that large current account deficits are followed by systematic negative surprises in economic growth. This regularity is verified both in the case of advanced economies and emerging economies. In addition, large current account deficits are reversed significantly faster than what forecasters anticipate and are followed by low asset returns and drops in sentiment. The findings are robust to changes in the specification and do not seem to be explained by efficient learning dynamics. This evidence indicates that analysts are unable to incorporate the negative information transmitted by large current account deficits and has implications for the understanding of past economic events and for the design of macro-prudential policies.
Fuente
IMF Economic Review. 2021
Materia
CICLOS ECONOMICOS
MACROECONOMIA
FINAZAS INTERNACIONALES
COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL
CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Repositorio
Repositorio Institucional (UCA)
Institución
Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina
OAI Identificador
oai:ucacris:123456789/12516
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ucacris:123456789/12516
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network_name_str Repositorio Institucional (UCA)
spelling Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilitiesAromí, José DanielCICLOS ECONOMICOSMACROECONOMIAFINAZAS INTERNACIONALESCOMERCIO INTERNACIONALCRECIMIENTO ECONOMICOFil: Aromí, José Daniel. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina. Facultad de Cienicas Económicas. Departamento de Investigación Francisco Valsecchi; ArgentinaFil: Aromí, José Daniel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Aromí, José Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaAbstract: Using a sample covering 50 advanced and emerging economies over 1990–2017, it is found that large current account deficits are followed by systematic negative surprises in economic growth. This regularity is verified both in the case of advanced economies and emerging economies. In addition, large current account deficits are reversed significantly faster than what forecasters anticipate and are followed by low asset returns and drops in sentiment. The findings are robust to changes in the specification and do not seem to be explained by efficient learning dynamics. This evidence indicates that analysts are unable to incorporate the negative information transmitted by large current account deficits and has implications for the understanding of past economic events and for the design of macro-prudential policies.Palgrave MacmillanInternational Monetary Fund2021info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfhttps://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/125162041-41612041-417X (online)10.1057/s41308-021-00137-5Aromí, D. Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities [en línea]. IMF Economic Review. 2021 doi:10.1057/s41308-021-00137-5 Disponible en: https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/12516IMF Economic Review. 2021reponame:Repositorio Institucional (UCA)instname:Pontificia Universidad Católica ArgentinaengEstudios de estados subjetivos en contextos microeconómicosinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/2025-07-03T10:58:06Zoai:ucacris:123456789/12516instacron:UCAInstitucionalhttps://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/Universidad privadaNo correspondehttps://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/oaiclaudia_fernandez@uca.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:25852025-07-03 10:58:06.571Repositorio Institucional (UCA) - Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentinafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities
title Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities
spellingShingle Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities
Aromí, José Daniel
CICLOS ECONOMICOS
MACROECONOMIA
FINAZAS INTERNACIONALES
COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL
CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO
title_short Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities
title_full Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities
title_fullStr Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities
title_full_unstemmed Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities
title_sort Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Aromí, José Daniel
author Aromí, José Daniel
author_facet Aromí, José Daniel
author_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CICLOS ECONOMICOS
MACROECONOMIA
FINAZAS INTERNACIONALES
COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL
CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO
topic CICLOS ECONOMICOS
MACROECONOMIA
FINAZAS INTERNACIONALES
COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL
CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina. Facultad de Cienicas Económicas. Departamento de Investigación Francisco Valsecchi; Argentina
Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires; Argentina
Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Abstract: Using a sample covering 50 advanced and emerging economies over 1990–2017, it is found that large current account deficits are followed by systematic negative surprises in economic growth. This regularity is verified both in the case of advanced economies and emerging economies. In addition, large current account deficits are reversed significantly faster than what forecasters anticipate and are followed by low asset returns and drops in sentiment. The findings are robust to changes in the specification and do not seem to be explained by efficient learning dynamics. This evidence indicates that analysts are unable to incorporate the negative information transmitted by large current account deficits and has implications for the understanding of past economic events and for the design of macro-prudential policies.
description Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina. Facultad de Cienicas Económicas. Departamento de Investigación Francisco Valsecchi; Argentina
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/12516
2041-4161
2041-417X (online)
10.1057/s41308-021-00137-5
Aromí, D. Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities [en línea]. IMF Economic Review. 2021 doi:10.1057/s41308-021-00137-5 Disponible en: https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/12516
url https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/12516
identifier_str_mv 2041-4161
2041-417X (online)
10.1057/s41308-021-00137-5
Aromí, D. Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities [en línea]. IMF Economic Review. 2021 doi:10.1057/s41308-021-00137-5 Disponible en: https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/12516
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Estudios de estados subjetivos en contextos microeconómicos
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Palgrave Macmillan
International Monetary Fund
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Palgrave Macmillan
International Monetary Fund
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv IMF Economic Review. 2021
reponame:Repositorio Institucional (UCA)
instname:Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina
reponame_str Repositorio Institucional (UCA)
collection Repositorio Institucional (UCA)
instname_str Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositorio Institucional (UCA) - Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina
repository.mail.fl_str_mv claudia_fernandez@uca.edu.ar
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score 13.070432

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