Forecast system implementation in the Paraná Delta

Autores
Guizzardi, Santiago.; Bianchi, Juan.; Cortese, Julián.; Uriburu Quirno, Marcelo.; Sabarots Gerbec, Martín.
Año de publicación
2022
Idioma
español castellano
Tipo de recurso
documento de conferencia
Estado
versión aceptada
Descripción
Fil: Guizzardi, Santiago. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua. Subgerencia Laboratorio de Hidráulica; Argentina.
Fil: Bianchi, Juan. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua. Subgerencia Laboratorio de Hidrología; Argentina.
Fil: Cortese, Julián. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua; Argentina.
Fil: Uriburu Quirno, Marcelo. Jefatura de Gabinete de Ministros. Subgerencia Innovación, Ciencia y Tecnología. Ciencia y Tecnología. Comisión Nacional de Actividades Espaciales; Argentina.
Fil: Sabarots Gerbec, Martín. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua. Subgerencia Laboratorio de Hidráulica; Argentina.
The hydrodynamics of the Paraná Delta is highly conditioned by the interaction of the Paraná River discharge and the tidal regime of the Río de la Plata estuary. In 2020 and 2021, the Paraná River observed one of its most significant low-flow periods in its historical record. The observed low-flows are having a significant impact on water intakes and the navigability of the waterway. A forecasting system has been implemented to predict water levels in different cross sections at two different lead times, i.e., 4 and 15 days, corresponding to different meteorological tide inputs. The 4-day forecast model performance was assessed between 12/08/2021 and 25/1/2022 by means of the following metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), standard error (SE), and Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), computed on modeled and observed series. The evaluation of these forecasts during 5 months show that its performance is satisfactory. The comparison between the time series of observed and simulated water levels shows that there is a good representation of the main trends, not only in time of happening but also in the magnitude of the events. This tool has had a significant impact among users in the region in terms of its outreach, as shown by the large number of website visits to the published forecasts.
Materia
Pronóstico hidrológico
Hidrodinámica
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Repositorio
Repositorio Digital del Instituto Nacional del Agua
Institución
Instituto Nacional del Agua
OAI Identificador
oai:repositorio.ina.gob.ar:123456789/638

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spelling Forecast system implementation in the Paraná DeltaGuizzardi, Santiago.Bianchi, Juan.Cortese, Julián.Uriburu Quirno, Marcelo.Sabarots Gerbec, Martín.Pronóstico hidrológicoHidrodinámicaFil: Guizzardi, Santiago. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua. Subgerencia Laboratorio de Hidráulica; Argentina.Fil: Bianchi, Juan. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua. Subgerencia Laboratorio de Hidrología; Argentina.Fil: Cortese, Julián. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua; Argentina.Fil: Uriburu Quirno, Marcelo. Jefatura de Gabinete de Ministros. Subgerencia Innovación, Ciencia y Tecnología. Ciencia y Tecnología. Comisión Nacional de Actividades Espaciales; Argentina.Fil: Sabarots Gerbec, Martín. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua. Subgerencia Laboratorio de Hidráulica; Argentina.The hydrodynamics of the Paraná Delta is highly conditioned by the interaction of the Paraná River discharge and the tidal regime of the Río de la Plata estuary. In 2020 and 2021, the Paraná River observed one of its most significant low-flow periods in its historical record. The observed low-flows are having a significant impact on water intakes and the navigability of the waterway. A forecasting system has been implemented to predict water levels in different cross sections at two different lead times, i.e., 4 and 15 days, corresponding to different meteorological tide inputs. The 4-day forecast model performance was assessed between 12/08/2021 and 25/1/2022 by means of the following metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), standard error (SE), and Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), computed on modeled and observed series. The evaluation of these forecasts during 5 months show that its performance is satisfactory. The comparison between the time series of observed and simulated water levels shows that there is a good representation of the main trends, not only in time of happening but also in the magnitude of the events. This tool has had a significant impact among users in the region in terms of its outreach, as shown by the large number of website visits to the published forecasts.2022-06info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObjectinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_5794info:ar-repo/semantics/documentoDeConferenciaapplication/pdfhttps://repositorio.ina.gob.ar/handle/123456789/638spaParaná, Rio (river)1128391info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/reponame:Repositorio Digital del Instituto Nacional del Aguainstname:Instituto Nacional del Agua2025-09-29T15:02:23Zoai:repositorio.ina.gob.ar:123456789/638instacron:INAInstitucionalhttps://repositorio.ina.gob.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicohttp://ina.gob.ar/https://repositorio.ina.gob.ar/server/oai/snrd?verb=Identifydspace@ina.gob.arArgentinaopendoar:2025-09-29 15:02:23.492Repositorio Digital del Instituto Nacional del Agua - Instituto Nacional del Aguafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Forecast system implementation in the Paraná Delta
title Forecast system implementation in the Paraná Delta
spellingShingle Forecast system implementation in the Paraná Delta
Guizzardi, Santiago.
Pronóstico hidrológico
Hidrodinámica
title_short Forecast system implementation in the Paraná Delta
title_full Forecast system implementation in the Paraná Delta
title_fullStr Forecast system implementation in the Paraná Delta
title_full_unstemmed Forecast system implementation in the Paraná Delta
title_sort Forecast system implementation in the Paraná Delta
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Guizzardi, Santiago.
Bianchi, Juan.
Cortese, Julián.
Uriburu Quirno, Marcelo.
Sabarots Gerbec, Martín.
author Guizzardi, Santiago.
author_facet Guizzardi, Santiago.
Bianchi, Juan.
Cortese, Julián.
Uriburu Quirno, Marcelo.
Sabarots Gerbec, Martín.
author_role author
author2 Bianchi, Juan.
Cortese, Julián.
Uriburu Quirno, Marcelo.
Sabarots Gerbec, Martín.
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Pronóstico hidrológico
Hidrodinámica
topic Pronóstico hidrológico
Hidrodinámica
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Fil: Guizzardi, Santiago. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua. Subgerencia Laboratorio de Hidráulica; Argentina.
Fil: Bianchi, Juan. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua. Subgerencia Laboratorio de Hidrología; Argentina.
Fil: Cortese, Julián. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua; Argentina.
Fil: Uriburu Quirno, Marcelo. Jefatura de Gabinete de Ministros. Subgerencia Innovación, Ciencia y Tecnología. Ciencia y Tecnología. Comisión Nacional de Actividades Espaciales; Argentina.
Fil: Sabarots Gerbec, Martín. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua. Subgerencia Laboratorio de Hidráulica; Argentina.
The hydrodynamics of the Paraná Delta is highly conditioned by the interaction of the Paraná River discharge and the tidal regime of the Río de la Plata estuary. In 2020 and 2021, the Paraná River observed one of its most significant low-flow periods in its historical record. The observed low-flows are having a significant impact on water intakes and the navigability of the waterway. A forecasting system has been implemented to predict water levels in different cross sections at two different lead times, i.e., 4 and 15 days, corresponding to different meteorological tide inputs. The 4-day forecast model performance was assessed between 12/08/2021 and 25/1/2022 by means of the following metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), standard error (SE), and Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), computed on modeled and observed series. The evaluation of these forecasts during 5 months show that its performance is satisfactory. The comparison between the time series of observed and simulated water levels shows that there is a good representation of the main trends, not only in time of happening but also in the magnitude of the events. This tool has had a significant impact among users in the region in terms of its outreach, as shown by the large number of website visits to the published forecasts.
description Fil: Guizzardi, Santiago. Ministerio de Economía. Secretaría de Obras Públicas. Instituto Nacional del Agua. Subgerencia Laboratorio de Hidráulica; Argentina.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-06
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_5794
info:ar-repo/semantics/documentoDeConferencia
format conferenceObject
status_str acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://repositorio.ina.gob.ar/handle/123456789/638
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dc.language.none.fl_str_mv spa
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dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv Paraná, Rio (river)
1128391
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instname:Instituto Nacional del Agua
reponame_str Repositorio Digital del Instituto Nacional del Agua
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instname_str Instituto Nacional del Agua
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