Pollinator Deficits, Food Consumption, and Consequences for Human Health: A Modeling Study

• Autores: Smith, Matthew R.; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Springmann, Marco; Sulser, Timothy B.; Garibaldi, Lucas Alejandro; Gerber, James; Wiebe, Keith; Myers, Samuel S.
• Año de publicación: 2022
• Idioma: inglés
• Tipo de recurso: artículo
• Materia: Biodiversidad y Conservación; Ecología; Agricultura (General); Salud Pública y Ambiental; Pollinator Deficits; Food Consumption; Consequences for Human Health; Biodiversidad y Conservación; Ecología; Agricultura (General); Salud Pública y Ambiental
• Institución: Universidad Nacional de Río Negro

Fil: Smith, Matthew R. Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. Department of Environmental Health. Estados Unidos.
Fil: Mueller, Nathaniel D. Colorado State University. Department of Ecosystem Science and Department of Soil and Crop Sciences. Estados Unidos.
Fil: Springmann, Marco. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health. Reino Unido.
Fil: Sulser, Timothy B. International Food Policy Research Institute. Environment and Production Technology Division. Estados Unidos.
Fil: Garibaldi, Lucas Alejandro. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro. Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural. Río Negro, Argentina.
Fil: Garibaldi, Lucas Alejandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural. Río Negro, Argentina.
Fil: Gerber, James. University of Minnesota. Institute on the Environment. Estados Unidos.
Fil: Wiebe, Keith. International Food Policy Research Institute. Environment and Production Technology Division. Estados Unidos.
Fil: Myers, Samuel S. Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. Department of Environmental Health. Estados Unidos.
Background: Animal pollination supports agricultural production for many healthy foods, such as fruits, vegetables, nuts, and legumes, that provide key nutrients and protect against noncommunicable disease. Today, most crops receive suboptimal pollination because of limited abundance and diversity of pollinating insects. Animal pollinators are currently suffering owing to a host of direct and indirect anthropogenic pressures: land-use change, intensive farming techniques, harmful pesticides, nutritional stress, and climate change, among others. Objectives: We aimed to model the impacts on current global human health from insufficient pollination via diet. Methods: We used a climate zonation approach to estimate current yield gaps for animal-pollinated foods and estimated the proportion of the gap attributable to insufficient pollinators based on existing research. We then simulated closing the "pollinator yield gaps" by eliminating the portion of total yield gaps attributable to insufficient pollination. Next, we used an agriculture-economic model to estimate the impacts of closing the pollinator yield gap on food production, interregional trade, and consumption. Finally, we used a comparative risk assessment to estimate the related changes in dietary risks and mortality by country and globally. In addition, we estimated the lost economic value of crop production for three diverse case-study countries: Honduras, Nepal, and Nigeria. Results: Globally, we calculated that 3%-5% of fruit, vegetable, and nut production is lost due to inadequate pollination, leading to an estimated 427,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 86,000, 691,000) excess deaths annually from lost healthy food consumption and associated diseases. Modeled impacts were unevenly distributed: Lost food production was concentrated in lower-income countries, whereas impacts on food consumption and mortality attributable to insufficient pollination were greater in middle- and high-income countries with higher rates of noncommunicable disease. Furthermore, in our three case-study countries, we calculated the economic value of crop production to be 12%-31% lower than if pollinators were abundant (due to crop production losses of 3%-19%), mainly due to lost fruit and vegetable production. Discussion: According to our analysis, insufficient populations of pollinators were responsible for large present-day burdens of disease through lost healthy food consumption. In addition, we calculated that low-income countries lost significant income and crop yields from pollinator deficits. These results underscore the urgent need to promote pollinator-friendly practices for both human health and agricultural livelihoods. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10947.
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