A Mosaic of Future Maladaptation Predicted for the Widespread Tree Nothofagus pumilio

Autores
Sekely, Jill; Marchelli, Paula; Arana, María Veronica; Pastorino, Mario Juan; Scotti, Ivan; Soliani, Carolina; Opgenoorth, Lars; Heer, Katrin
Año de publicación
2026
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Nothofagus pumilio, or lenga beech, is a widespread and locally-adapted tree species endemic to South America's Patagonia region. Its diverse populations span a 2000-km-long range in the Andes Mountains, which is already experiencing adverse effects from climate change. Here the Andes contain two uncorrelated temperature and precipitation gradients, which offers a unique opportunity to evaluate how gradients drive local adaptation and conversely how changes in these gradients could lead to future maladaptation risk. We predicted climate maladaptation risk for N. pumilio populations with genomic offset. Our dataset includes 493 adult trees in 20 natural forest sites across the distribution range that were sampled with a paired-site study design, which creates the opportunity to also investigate genomic offset patterns at small spatial scales. Local climate data for both current and future projected conditions were extracted from the CHELSA online repository. We used 490 putatively-adaptive single nucleotide polymorphisms, that is, those associated with chosen climatic gradients, and assessed genomic offset using two methods: LFMM ‘genetic.gap’ and Gradient Forest. We projected risk at sampled sites and spatially across the full Argentina species distribution range, considering three possible emission scenarios and two future time periods within the 21st century, using Ensemble Means calculated from CMIP6 projections. Contrary to our expectations, our results predict a complex mosaic of heightened maladaptation risk across the landscape, with particularly high values in northern treeline and southern valley populations, across all investigated scenarios. This suggests a more complicated pattern of risk than uniformly increased risk along elevation or latitude clines. Using external evidence, we contextualize our genomic offset results and investigate possible species' responses, including how maladaptation risk could impact Patagonian forests in the future.
EEA Bariloche
Fil: Sekely, Jill. Albert-Ludwigs Universität Freiburg. Eva Mayr Stihl Professorship for Forest Genetics; Alemania
Fil: Sekely, Jill. Philipps-Universität Marburg. Plant Ecology and Geobotany; Alemania
Fil: Marchelli, Paula. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Marchelli, Paula. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Arana, María Veronica. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Arana, María Veronica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Pastorino, Mario Juan. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Pastorino, Mario Juan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Scotti, Ivan. URFM. Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement (INRAE); Francia
Fil: Soliani, Carolina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Soliani, Carolina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Opgenoorth, Lars. Philipps-Universität Marburg. Plant Ecology and Geobotany; Alemania
Fil: Heer, Katrin. Albert-Ludwigs Universität Freiburg. Eva Mayr Stihl Professorship for Forest Genetics; Alemania
Fuente
Evolutionary Applications 19 (3) : e70227. (March 2026)
Materia
Nothofagus pumilio
Adaptation
Climate Change
Genomics
Adaptación
Cambio Climático
Genómica
Región Patagónica
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Repositorio
INTA Digital (INTA)
Institución
Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
OAI Identificador
oai:localhost:20.500.12123/25625
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:localhost:20.500.12123/25625
network_acronym_str INTADig
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network_name_str INTA Digital (INTA)
spelling A Mosaic of Future Maladaptation Predicted for the Widespread Tree Nothofagus pumilioSekely, JillMarchelli, PaulaArana, María VeronicaPastorino, Mario JuanScotti, IvanSoliani, CarolinaOpgenoorth, LarsHeer, KatrinNothofagus pumilioAdaptationClimate ChangeGenomicsAdaptaciónCambio ClimáticoGenómicaRegión PatagónicaNothofagus pumilio, or lenga beech, is a widespread and locally-adapted tree species endemic to South America's Patagonia region. Its diverse populations span a 2000-km-long range in the Andes Mountains, which is already experiencing adverse effects from climate change. Here the Andes contain two uncorrelated temperature and precipitation gradients, which offers a unique opportunity to evaluate how gradients drive local adaptation and conversely how changes in these gradients could lead to future maladaptation risk. We predicted climate maladaptation risk for N. pumilio populations with genomic offset. Our dataset includes 493 adult trees in 20 natural forest sites across the distribution range that were sampled with a paired-site study design, which creates the opportunity to also investigate genomic offset patterns at small spatial scales. Local climate data for both current and future projected conditions were extracted from the CHELSA online repository. We used 490 putatively-adaptive single nucleotide polymorphisms, that is, those associated with chosen climatic gradients, and assessed genomic offset using two methods: LFMM ‘genetic.gap’ and Gradient Forest. We projected risk at sampled sites and spatially across the full Argentina species distribution range, considering three possible emission scenarios and two future time periods within the 21st century, using Ensemble Means calculated from CMIP6 projections. Contrary to our expectations, our results predict a complex mosaic of heightened maladaptation risk across the landscape, with particularly high values in northern treeline and southern valley populations, across all investigated scenarios. This suggests a more complicated pattern of risk than uniformly increased risk along elevation or latitude clines. Using external evidence, we contextualize our genomic offset results and investigate possible species' responses, including how maladaptation risk could impact Patagonian forests in the future.EEA BarilocheFil: Sekely, Jill. Albert-Ludwigs Universität Freiburg. Eva Mayr Stihl Professorship for Forest Genetics; AlemaniaFil: Sekely, Jill. Philipps-Universität Marburg. Plant Ecology and Geobotany; AlemaniaFil: Marchelli, Paula. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; ArgentinaFil: Marchelli, Paula. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; ArgentinaFil: Arana, María Veronica. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; ArgentinaFil: Arana, María Veronica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; ArgentinaFil: Pastorino, Mario Juan. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; ArgentinaFil: Pastorino, Mario Juan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; ArgentinaFil: Scotti, Ivan. URFM. Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement (INRAE); FranciaFil: Soliani, Carolina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; ArgentinaFil: Soliani, Carolina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; ArgentinaFil: Opgenoorth, Lars. Philipps-Universität Marburg. Plant Ecology and Geobotany; AlemaniaFil: Heer, Katrin. Albert-Ludwigs Universität Freiburg. Eva Mayr Stihl Professorship for Forest Genetics; AlemaniaWiley2026-03-30T12:56:11Z2026-03-30T12:56:11Z2026-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/25625https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eva.702271752-4571https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.70227Evolutionary Applications 19 (3) : e70227. (March 2026)reponame:INTA Digital (INTA)instname:Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuariaenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)2026-04-01T11:49:59Zoai:localhost:20.500.12123/25625instacron:INTAInstitucionalhttp://repositorio.inta.gob.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://repositorio.inta.gob.ar/oai/requesttripaldi.nicolas@inta.gob.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:l2026-04-01 11:49:59.604INTA Digital (INTA) - Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuariafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv A Mosaic of Future Maladaptation Predicted for the Widespread Tree Nothofagus pumilio
title A Mosaic of Future Maladaptation Predicted for the Widespread Tree Nothofagus pumilio
spellingShingle A Mosaic of Future Maladaptation Predicted for the Widespread Tree Nothofagus pumilio
Sekely, Jill
Nothofagus pumilio
Adaptation
Climate Change
Genomics
Adaptación
Cambio Climático
Genómica
Región Patagónica
title_short A Mosaic of Future Maladaptation Predicted for the Widespread Tree Nothofagus pumilio
title_full A Mosaic of Future Maladaptation Predicted for the Widespread Tree Nothofagus pumilio
title_fullStr A Mosaic of Future Maladaptation Predicted for the Widespread Tree Nothofagus pumilio
title_full_unstemmed A Mosaic of Future Maladaptation Predicted for the Widespread Tree Nothofagus pumilio
title_sort A Mosaic of Future Maladaptation Predicted for the Widespread Tree Nothofagus pumilio
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Sekely, Jill
Marchelli, Paula
Arana, María Veronica
Pastorino, Mario Juan
Scotti, Ivan
Soliani, Carolina
Opgenoorth, Lars
Heer, Katrin
author Sekely, Jill
author_facet Sekely, Jill
Marchelli, Paula
Arana, María Veronica
Pastorino, Mario Juan
Scotti, Ivan
Soliani, Carolina
Opgenoorth, Lars
Heer, Katrin
author_role author
author2 Marchelli, Paula
Arana, María Veronica
Pastorino, Mario Juan
Scotti, Ivan
Soliani, Carolina
Opgenoorth, Lars
Heer, Katrin
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Nothofagus pumilio
Adaptation
Climate Change
Genomics
Adaptación
Cambio Climático
Genómica
Región Patagónica
topic Nothofagus pumilio
Adaptation
Climate Change
Genomics
Adaptación
Cambio Climático
Genómica
Región Patagónica
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Nothofagus pumilio, or lenga beech, is a widespread and locally-adapted tree species endemic to South America's Patagonia region. Its diverse populations span a 2000-km-long range in the Andes Mountains, which is already experiencing adverse effects from climate change. Here the Andes contain two uncorrelated temperature and precipitation gradients, which offers a unique opportunity to evaluate how gradients drive local adaptation and conversely how changes in these gradients could lead to future maladaptation risk. We predicted climate maladaptation risk for N. pumilio populations with genomic offset. Our dataset includes 493 adult trees in 20 natural forest sites across the distribution range that were sampled with a paired-site study design, which creates the opportunity to also investigate genomic offset patterns at small spatial scales. Local climate data for both current and future projected conditions were extracted from the CHELSA online repository. We used 490 putatively-adaptive single nucleotide polymorphisms, that is, those associated with chosen climatic gradients, and assessed genomic offset using two methods: LFMM ‘genetic.gap’ and Gradient Forest. We projected risk at sampled sites and spatially across the full Argentina species distribution range, considering three possible emission scenarios and two future time periods within the 21st century, using Ensemble Means calculated from CMIP6 projections. Contrary to our expectations, our results predict a complex mosaic of heightened maladaptation risk across the landscape, with particularly high values in northern treeline and southern valley populations, across all investigated scenarios. This suggests a more complicated pattern of risk than uniformly increased risk along elevation or latitude clines. Using external evidence, we contextualize our genomic offset results and investigate possible species' responses, including how maladaptation risk could impact Patagonian forests in the future.
EEA Bariloche
Fil: Sekely, Jill. Albert-Ludwigs Universität Freiburg. Eva Mayr Stihl Professorship for Forest Genetics; Alemania
Fil: Sekely, Jill. Philipps-Universität Marburg. Plant Ecology and Geobotany; Alemania
Fil: Marchelli, Paula. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Marchelli, Paula. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Arana, María Veronica. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Arana, María Veronica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Pastorino, Mario Juan. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Pastorino, Mario Juan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Scotti, Ivan. URFM. Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement (INRAE); Francia
Fil: Soliani, Carolina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Soliani, Carolina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Opgenoorth, Lars. Philipps-Universität Marburg. Plant Ecology and Geobotany; Alemania
Fil: Heer, Katrin. Albert-Ludwigs Universität Freiburg. Eva Mayr Stihl Professorship for Forest Genetics; Alemania
description Nothofagus pumilio, or lenga beech, is a widespread and locally-adapted tree species endemic to South America's Patagonia region. Its diverse populations span a 2000-km-long range in the Andes Mountains, which is already experiencing adverse effects from climate change. Here the Andes contain two uncorrelated temperature and precipitation gradients, which offers a unique opportunity to evaluate how gradients drive local adaptation and conversely how changes in these gradients could lead to future maladaptation risk. We predicted climate maladaptation risk for N. pumilio populations with genomic offset. Our dataset includes 493 adult trees in 20 natural forest sites across the distribution range that were sampled with a paired-site study design, which creates the opportunity to also investigate genomic offset patterns at small spatial scales. Local climate data for both current and future projected conditions were extracted from the CHELSA online repository. We used 490 putatively-adaptive single nucleotide polymorphisms, that is, those associated with chosen climatic gradients, and assessed genomic offset using two methods: LFMM ‘genetic.gap’ and Gradient Forest. We projected risk at sampled sites and spatially across the full Argentina species distribution range, considering three possible emission scenarios and two future time periods within the 21st century, using Ensemble Means calculated from CMIP6 projections. Contrary to our expectations, our results predict a complex mosaic of heightened maladaptation risk across the landscape, with particularly high values in northern treeline and southern valley populations, across all investigated scenarios. This suggests a more complicated pattern of risk than uniformly increased risk along elevation or latitude clines. Using external evidence, we contextualize our genomic offset results and investigate possible species' responses, including how maladaptation risk could impact Patagonian forests in the future.
publishDate 2026
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2026-03-30T12:56:11Z
2026-03-30T12:56:11Z
2026-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/25625
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eva.70227
1752-4571
https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.70227
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/25625
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eva.70227
https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.70227
identifier_str_mv 1752-4571
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Evolutionary Applications 19 (3) : e70227. (March 2026)
reponame:INTA Digital (INTA)
instname:Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
reponame_str INTA Digital (INTA)
collection INTA Digital (INTA)
instname_str Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
repository.name.fl_str_mv INTA Digital (INTA) - Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
repository.mail.fl_str_mv tripaldi.nicolas@inta.gob.ar
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