Dynamics of past forest cover changes and future scenarios with implications for soil degradation in Misiones rainforest, Argentina

Autores
Navarro, María Fabiana; Calamari, Noelia Cecilia; Mosciaro, Maria Jesus
Año de publicación
2023
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Misiones rainforest is one of the most threatened subtropical forests worldwide. Anthropogenic pressure by agriculture and forestry expansion continues transforming landscapes with negative consequences on ecosystem service provision, such as soil erosion control. Understanding how land use and land cover change (LUCC) management, policies, and social factors influenced in the past, allows decision-makers to anticipate potential effects on future land use and soil loss, contributing to the sustainable planning and management of productive activities. We developed three spatially explicit scenarios for Misiones province by 2030 using the Dinamica EGO modeling platform: 1) Business as Usual (BAU), 2) Low Deforestation (ALTlow), and 3) High Deforestation (ALThigh), based on different international and domestic socioeconomic contexts. We used land cover data from 2002 to 2015 as well as biophysical, social-infrastructure, political-administrative factors, and legal restrictions to estimate changes that may occur by 2030. We analyzed magnitude, intensity, and spatial pattern of future forest cover changes through transition rates and a cellular automata allocation model. Moreover, we used the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS) to determine soil water erosion and soil loss tolerance in each scenario. Our results revealed that around 19% of the remaining native forest would be transformed into either agriculture or cultivated forest by 2030 for all scenarios. In addition, and contrary to that trend, the ALTlow scenario showed a recovery of 3% of native forest. Regarding soil erosion, our study indicated that the mean annual soil loss by 2030 would range from 12.03 to 19.15 t. ha−1.year−1 for ALTlow and ALThigh scenarios, respectively. Additionally, between 21% and 31% of Misiones province showed soil loss values higher than tolerance. Our work shows that a 10% decrease in the deforestation rate, compared to the current rate, would lead not only to a recovery of native forest cover, but also to a reduction in soil loss of about 4.5 Mt.yr−1 by 2030. This study demonstrates the suitability of the applied model to simulate future LUCC processes and provides inputs for decision-making involving natural resource management and the potential impacts of these decisions on ecosystem services. Finally, our results highlight the need for appropriate policies and regulations, especially, in terms of land use change restrictions in areas of high erosion risk.
Instituto de Suelos
Fil: Navarro Rau, María Fabiana. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Suelos; Argentina
Fil: Calamari, Noelia Cecilia. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Paraná; Argentina
Fil: Mosciaro, Maria Jesus. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Salta. Laboratorio de Teledetección y SIG; Argentina
Fuente
Journal for Nature Conservation 73 : 126391. (June 2023)
Materia
Erosión
Erosion
Forest Cover
Soil Degradation
Rainforests
Cubierta de Bosque
Degradación del Suelo
Bosque Húmedo
Dinámica EGO
LUCC
Selva Tropical Subtropical
EGO Dynamics
Subtropical Rainforest
Misiones, Argentina
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso restringido
Condiciones de uso
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Repositorio
INTA Digital (INTA)
Institución
Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
OAI Identificador
oai:localhost:20.500.12123/14347

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oai_identifier_str oai:localhost:20.500.12123/14347
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spelling Dynamics of past forest cover changes and future scenarios with implications for soil degradation in Misiones rainforest, ArgentinaNavarro, María FabianaCalamari, Noelia CeciliaMosciaro, Maria JesusErosiónErosionForest CoverSoil DegradationRainforestsCubierta de BosqueDegradación del SueloBosque HúmedoDinámica EGOLUCCSelva Tropical SubtropicalEGO DynamicsSubtropical RainforestMisiones, ArgentinaMisiones rainforest is one of the most threatened subtropical forests worldwide. Anthropogenic pressure by agriculture and forestry expansion continues transforming landscapes with negative consequences on ecosystem service provision, such as soil erosion control. Understanding how land use and land cover change (LUCC) management, policies, and social factors influenced in the past, allows decision-makers to anticipate potential effects on future land use and soil loss, contributing to the sustainable planning and management of productive activities. We developed three spatially explicit scenarios for Misiones province by 2030 using the Dinamica EGO modeling platform: 1) Business as Usual (BAU), 2) Low Deforestation (ALTlow), and 3) High Deforestation (ALThigh), based on different international and domestic socioeconomic contexts. We used land cover data from 2002 to 2015 as well as biophysical, social-infrastructure, political-administrative factors, and legal restrictions to estimate changes that may occur by 2030. We analyzed magnitude, intensity, and spatial pattern of future forest cover changes through transition rates and a cellular automata allocation model. Moreover, we used the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS) to determine soil water erosion and soil loss tolerance in each scenario. Our results revealed that around 19% of the remaining native forest would be transformed into either agriculture or cultivated forest by 2030 for all scenarios. In addition, and contrary to that trend, the ALTlow scenario showed a recovery of 3% of native forest. Regarding soil erosion, our study indicated that the mean annual soil loss by 2030 would range from 12.03 to 19.15 t. ha−1.year−1 for ALTlow and ALThigh scenarios, respectively. Additionally, between 21% and 31% of Misiones province showed soil loss values higher than tolerance. Our work shows that a 10% decrease in the deforestation rate, compared to the current rate, would lead not only to a recovery of native forest cover, but also to a reduction in soil loss of about 4.5 Mt.yr−1 by 2030. This study demonstrates the suitability of the applied model to simulate future LUCC processes and provides inputs for decision-making involving natural resource management and the potential impacts of these decisions on ecosystem services. Finally, our results highlight the need for appropriate policies and regulations, especially, in terms of land use change restrictions in areas of high erosion risk.Instituto de SuelosFil: Navarro Rau, María Fabiana. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Suelos; ArgentinaFil: Calamari, Noelia Cecilia. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Paraná; ArgentinaFil: Mosciaro, Maria Jesus. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Salta. Laboratorio de Teledetección y SIG; ArgentinaElsevier2023-03-29T10:24:58Z2023-03-29T10:24:58Z2023-06-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/14347https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S16171381230006261617-1381https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2023.126391Journal for Nature Conservation 73 : 126391. (June 2023)reponame:INTA Digital (INTA)instname:Instituto Nacional de Tecnología AgropecuariaengMisiones .......... (province) (World, South America, Argentina)1001434info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)2025-09-29T13:45:56Zoai:localhost:20.500.12123/14347instacron:INTAInstitucionalhttp://repositorio.inta.gob.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://repositorio.inta.gob.ar/oai/requesttripaldi.nicolas@inta.gob.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:l2025-09-29 13:45:56.953INTA Digital (INTA) - Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuariafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Dynamics of past forest cover changes and future scenarios with implications for soil degradation in Misiones rainforest, Argentina
title Dynamics of past forest cover changes and future scenarios with implications for soil degradation in Misiones rainforest, Argentina
spellingShingle Dynamics of past forest cover changes and future scenarios with implications for soil degradation in Misiones rainforest, Argentina
Navarro, María Fabiana
Erosión
Erosion
Forest Cover
Soil Degradation
Rainforests
Cubierta de Bosque
Degradación del Suelo
Bosque Húmedo
Dinámica EGO
LUCC
Selva Tropical Subtropical
EGO Dynamics
Subtropical Rainforest
Misiones, Argentina
title_short Dynamics of past forest cover changes and future scenarios with implications for soil degradation in Misiones rainforest, Argentina
title_full Dynamics of past forest cover changes and future scenarios with implications for soil degradation in Misiones rainforest, Argentina
title_fullStr Dynamics of past forest cover changes and future scenarios with implications for soil degradation in Misiones rainforest, Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Dynamics of past forest cover changes and future scenarios with implications for soil degradation in Misiones rainforest, Argentina
title_sort Dynamics of past forest cover changes and future scenarios with implications for soil degradation in Misiones rainforest, Argentina
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Navarro, María Fabiana
Calamari, Noelia Cecilia
Mosciaro, Maria Jesus
author Navarro, María Fabiana
author_facet Navarro, María Fabiana
Calamari, Noelia Cecilia
Mosciaro, Maria Jesus
author_role author
author2 Calamari, Noelia Cecilia
Mosciaro, Maria Jesus
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Erosión
Erosion
Forest Cover
Soil Degradation
Rainforests
Cubierta de Bosque
Degradación del Suelo
Bosque Húmedo
Dinámica EGO
LUCC
Selva Tropical Subtropical
EGO Dynamics
Subtropical Rainforest
Misiones, Argentina
topic Erosión
Erosion
Forest Cover
Soil Degradation
Rainforests
Cubierta de Bosque
Degradación del Suelo
Bosque Húmedo
Dinámica EGO
LUCC
Selva Tropical Subtropical
EGO Dynamics
Subtropical Rainforest
Misiones, Argentina
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Misiones rainforest is one of the most threatened subtropical forests worldwide. Anthropogenic pressure by agriculture and forestry expansion continues transforming landscapes with negative consequences on ecosystem service provision, such as soil erosion control. Understanding how land use and land cover change (LUCC) management, policies, and social factors influenced in the past, allows decision-makers to anticipate potential effects on future land use and soil loss, contributing to the sustainable planning and management of productive activities. We developed three spatially explicit scenarios for Misiones province by 2030 using the Dinamica EGO modeling platform: 1) Business as Usual (BAU), 2) Low Deforestation (ALTlow), and 3) High Deforestation (ALThigh), based on different international and domestic socioeconomic contexts. We used land cover data from 2002 to 2015 as well as biophysical, social-infrastructure, political-administrative factors, and legal restrictions to estimate changes that may occur by 2030. We analyzed magnitude, intensity, and spatial pattern of future forest cover changes through transition rates and a cellular automata allocation model. Moreover, we used the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS) to determine soil water erosion and soil loss tolerance in each scenario. Our results revealed that around 19% of the remaining native forest would be transformed into either agriculture or cultivated forest by 2030 for all scenarios. In addition, and contrary to that trend, the ALTlow scenario showed a recovery of 3% of native forest. Regarding soil erosion, our study indicated that the mean annual soil loss by 2030 would range from 12.03 to 19.15 t. ha−1.year−1 for ALTlow and ALThigh scenarios, respectively. Additionally, between 21% and 31% of Misiones province showed soil loss values higher than tolerance. Our work shows that a 10% decrease in the deforestation rate, compared to the current rate, would lead not only to a recovery of native forest cover, but also to a reduction in soil loss of about 4.5 Mt.yr−1 by 2030. This study demonstrates the suitability of the applied model to simulate future LUCC processes and provides inputs for decision-making involving natural resource management and the potential impacts of these decisions on ecosystem services. Finally, our results highlight the need for appropriate policies and regulations, especially, in terms of land use change restrictions in areas of high erosion risk.
Instituto de Suelos
Fil: Navarro Rau, María Fabiana. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Suelos; Argentina
Fil: Calamari, Noelia Cecilia. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Paraná; Argentina
Fil: Mosciaro, Maria Jesus. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Salta. Laboratorio de Teledetección y SIG; Argentina
description Misiones rainforest is one of the most threatened subtropical forests worldwide. Anthropogenic pressure by agriculture and forestry expansion continues transforming landscapes with negative consequences on ecosystem service provision, such as soil erosion control. Understanding how land use and land cover change (LUCC) management, policies, and social factors influenced in the past, allows decision-makers to anticipate potential effects on future land use and soil loss, contributing to the sustainable planning and management of productive activities. We developed three spatially explicit scenarios for Misiones province by 2030 using the Dinamica EGO modeling platform: 1) Business as Usual (BAU), 2) Low Deforestation (ALTlow), and 3) High Deforestation (ALThigh), based on different international and domestic socioeconomic contexts. We used land cover data from 2002 to 2015 as well as biophysical, social-infrastructure, political-administrative factors, and legal restrictions to estimate changes that may occur by 2030. We analyzed magnitude, intensity, and spatial pattern of future forest cover changes through transition rates and a cellular automata allocation model. Moreover, we used the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS) to determine soil water erosion and soil loss tolerance in each scenario. Our results revealed that around 19% of the remaining native forest would be transformed into either agriculture or cultivated forest by 2030 for all scenarios. In addition, and contrary to that trend, the ALTlow scenario showed a recovery of 3% of native forest. Regarding soil erosion, our study indicated that the mean annual soil loss by 2030 would range from 12.03 to 19.15 t. ha−1.year−1 for ALTlow and ALThigh scenarios, respectively. Additionally, between 21% and 31% of Misiones province showed soil loss values higher than tolerance. Our work shows that a 10% decrease in the deforestation rate, compared to the current rate, would lead not only to a recovery of native forest cover, but also to a reduction in soil loss of about 4.5 Mt.yr−1 by 2030. This study demonstrates the suitability of the applied model to simulate future LUCC processes and provides inputs for decision-making involving natural resource management and the potential impacts of these decisions on ecosystem services. Finally, our results highlight the need for appropriate policies and regulations, especially, in terms of land use change restrictions in areas of high erosion risk.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-03-29T10:24:58Z
2023-03-29T10:24:58Z
2023-06-01
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/14347
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1617138123000626
1617-1381
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2023.126391
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/14347
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1617138123000626
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2023.126391
identifier_str_mv 1617-1381
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
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Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
eu_rights_str_mv restrictedAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv Misiones .......... (province) (World, South America, Argentina)
1001434
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Journal for Nature Conservation 73 : 126391. (June 2023)
reponame:INTA Digital (INTA)
instname:Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
reponame_str INTA Digital (INTA)
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instname_str Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
repository.name.fl_str_mv INTA Digital (INTA) - Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
repository.mail.fl_str_mv tripaldi.nicolas@inta.gob.ar
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