Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level
- Autores
- Montroull, Natalia Blanca; Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Camilloni, Ines Angela
- Año de publicación
- 2018
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- The assessment of regional climate and hydrological impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase became vital to guide decision makers and water management planners after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. With current emission trends close to a pathway of 3 °C warming by the end of the present century, this study investigates the projected regional hydrology impacts over La Plata basin (LPB) for the warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2 °C established in Paris and for 3 °C above the pre-industrial level. We also explore the consequences from following a medium or high-emission representative concentration pathway (RCP) to achieve the different warming targets. In order to determine the possible changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharges, we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)-distributed hydrology model in combination of bias-corrected GCM outputs from the Inter-Sectorial Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP). Because the behaviour of the hydrometeorological variables is not homogeneous over LPB, we analysed impacts of the different changes in mean global temperature and RCPs over four sub-basins: Paraguay, Paraná, Iguazú and Uruguay. Overall, most of the changes over the sub-basins suggest moister conditions with increasing temperatures. The comparison of the RCPs indicates that increases in precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff would be larger under the medium-emission scenario. When the different responses of the various components of the terrestrial water cycle were integrated, results show that variation of annual mean streamflow in all sub-basins ranges between ±20%. However, in most cases, the sign of the changes highly depends on the RCP chosen to achieve a warming level.
Fil: Montroull, Natalia Blanca. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina - Materia
-
GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE TARGET
HYDROLOGY
LA PLATA BASIN
REGIONAL HYDROLOGY IMPACT - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/97299
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Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial levelMontroull, Natalia BlancaSaurral, Ramiro IgnacioCamilloni, Ines AngelaGLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE TARGETHYDROLOGYLA PLATA BASINREGIONAL HYDROLOGY IMPACThttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The assessment of regional climate and hydrological impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase became vital to guide decision makers and water management planners after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. With current emission trends close to a pathway of 3 °C warming by the end of the present century, this study investigates the projected regional hydrology impacts over La Plata basin (LPB) for the warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2 °C established in Paris and for 3 °C above the pre-industrial level. We also explore the consequences from following a medium or high-emission representative concentration pathway (RCP) to achieve the different warming targets. In order to determine the possible changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharges, we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)-distributed hydrology model in combination of bias-corrected GCM outputs from the Inter-Sectorial Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP). Because the behaviour of the hydrometeorological variables is not homogeneous over LPB, we analysed impacts of the different changes in mean global temperature and RCPs over four sub-basins: Paraguay, Paraná, Iguazú and Uruguay. Overall, most of the changes over the sub-basins suggest moister conditions with increasing temperatures. The comparison of the RCPs indicates that increases in precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff would be larger under the medium-emission scenario. When the different responses of the various components of the terrestrial water cycle were integrated, results show that variation of annual mean streamflow in all sub-basins ranges between ±20%. However, in most cases, the sign of the changes highly depends on the RCP chosen to achieve a warming level.Fil: Montroull, Natalia Blanca. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd2018-06info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/97299Montroull, Natalia Blanca; Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 38; 8; 6-2018; 3355-33680899-8418CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.5505info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.5505info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:36:36Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/97299instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:36:36.614CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level |
title |
Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level |
spellingShingle |
Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level Montroull, Natalia Blanca GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE TARGET HYDROLOGY LA PLATA BASIN REGIONAL HYDROLOGY IMPACT |
title_short |
Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level |
title_full |
Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level |
title_fullStr |
Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level |
title_sort |
Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Montroull, Natalia Blanca Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio Camilloni, Ines Angela |
author |
Montroull, Natalia Blanca |
author_facet |
Montroull, Natalia Blanca Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio Camilloni, Ines Angela |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio Camilloni, Ines Angela |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE TARGET HYDROLOGY LA PLATA BASIN REGIONAL HYDROLOGY IMPACT |
topic |
GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE TARGET HYDROLOGY LA PLATA BASIN REGIONAL HYDROLOGY IMPACT |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
The assessment of regional climate and hydrological impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase became vital to guide decision makers and water management planners after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. With current emission trends close to a pathway of 3 °C warming by the end of the present century, this study investigates the projected regional hydrology impacts over La Plata basin (LPB) for the warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2 °C established in Paris and for 3 °C above the pre-industrial level. We also explore the consequences from following a medium or high-emission representative concentration pathway (RCP) to achieve the different warming targets. In order to determine the possible changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharges, we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)-distributed hydrology model in combination of bias-corrected GCM outputs from the Inter-Sectorial Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP). Because the behaviour of the hydrometeorological variables is not homogeneous over LPB, we analysed impacts of the different changes in mean global temperature and RCPs over four sub-basins: Paraguay, Paraná, Iguazú and Uruguay. Overall, most of the changes over the sub-basins suggest moister conditions with increasing temperatures. The comparison of the RCPs indicates that increases in precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff would be larger under the medium-emission scenario. When the different responses of the various components of the terrestrial water cycle were integrated, results show that variation of annual mean streamflow in all sub-basins ranges between ±20%. However, in most cases, the sign of the changes highly depends on the RCP chosen to achieve a warming level. Fil: Montroull, Natalia Blanca. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina Fil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina |
description |
The assessment of regional climate and hydrological impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase became vital to guide decision makers and water management planners after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. With current emission trends close to a pathway of 3 °C warming by the end of the present century, this study investigates the projected regional hydrology impacts over La Plata basin (LPB) for the warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2 °C established in Paris and for 3 °C above the pre-industrial level. We also explore the consequences from following a medium or high-emission representative concentration pathway (RCP) to achieve the different warming targets. In order to determine the possible changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharges, we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)-distributed hydrology model in combination of bias-corrected GCM outputs from the Inter-Sectorial Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP). Because the behaviour of the hydrometeorological variables is not homogeneous over LPB, we analysed impacts of the different changes in mean global temperature and RCPs over four sub-basins: Paraguay, Paraná, Iguazú and Uruguay. Overall, most of the changes over the sub-basins suggest moister conditions with increasing temperatures. The comparison of the RCPs indicates that increases in precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff would be larger under the medium-emission scenario. When the different responses of the various components of the terrestrial water cycle were integrated, results show that variation of annual mean streamflow in all sub-basins ranges between ±20%. However, in most cases, the sign of the changes highly depends on the RCP chosen to achieve a warming level. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2018-06 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/97299 Montroull, Natalia Blanca; Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 38; 8; 6-2018; 3355-3368 0899-8418 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/97299 |
identifier_str_mv |
Montroull, Natalia Blanca; Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 38; 8; 6-2018; 3355-3368 0899-8418 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.5505 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.5505 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
John Wiley & Sons Ltd |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
John Wiley & Sons Ltd |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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1844613149971447808 |
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13.070432 |