Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level

Autores
Montroull, Natalia Blanca; Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Camilloni, Ines Angela
Año de publicación
2018
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The assessment of regional climate and hydrological impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase became vital to guide decision makers and water management planners after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. With current emission trends close to a pathway of 3 °C warming by the end of the present century, this study investigates the projected regional hydrology impacts over La Plata basin (LPB) for the warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2 °C established in Paris and for 3 °C above the pre-industrial level. We also explore the consequences from following a medium or high-emission representative concentration pathway (RCP) to achieve the different warming targets. In order to determine the possible changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharges, we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)-distributed hydrology model in combination of bias-corrected GCM outputs from the Inter-Sectorial Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP). Because the behaviour of the hydrometeorological variables is not homogeneous over LPB, we analysed impacts of the different changes in mean global temperature and RCPs over four sub-basins: Paraguay, Paraná, Iguazú and Uruguay. Overall, most of the changes over the sub-basins suggest moister conditions with increasing temperatures. The comparison of the RCPs indicates that increases in precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff would be larger under the medium-emission scenario. When the different responses of the various components of the terrestrial water cycle were integrated, results show that variation of annual mean streamflow in all sub-basins ranges between ±20%. However, in most cases, the sign of the changes highly depends on the RCP chosen to achieve a warming level.
Fil: Montroull, Natalia Blanca. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Materia
GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE TARGET
HYDROLOGY
LA PLATA BASIN
REGIONAL HYDROLOGY IMPACT
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/97299
Acceder
id CONICETDig_fe92fec177e918b44f48aed88394da55
oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/97299
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial levelMontroull, Natalia BlancaSaurral, Ramiro IgnacioCamilloni, Ines AngelaGLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE TARGETHYDROLOGYLA PLATA BASINREGIONAL HYDROLOGY IMPACThttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The assessment of regional climate and hydrological impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase became vital to guide decision makers and water management planners after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. With current emission trends close to a pathway of 3 °C warming by the end of the present century, this study investigates the projected regional hydrology impacts over La Plata basin (LPB) for the warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2 °C established in Paris and for 3 °C above the pre-industrial level. We also explore the consequences from following a medium or high-emission representative concentration pathway (RCP) to achieve the different warming targets. In order to determine the possible changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharges, we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)-distributed hydrology model in combination of bias-corrected GCM outputs from the Inter-Sectorial Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP). Because the behaviour of the hydrometeorological variables is not homogeneous over LPB, we analysed impacts of the different changes in mean global temperature and RCPs over four sub-basins: Paraguay, Paraná, Iguazú and Uruguay. Overall, most of the changes over the sub-basins suggest moister conditions with increasing temperatures. The comparison of the RCPs indicates that increases in precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff would be larger under the medium-emission scenario. When the different responses of the various components of the terrestrial water cycle were integrated, results show that variation of annual mean streamflow in all sub-basins ranges between ±20%. However, in most cases, the sign of the changes highly depends on the RCP chosen to achieve a warming level.Fil: Montroull, Natalia Blanca. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd2018-06info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/97299Montroull, Natalia Blanca; Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 38; 8; 6-2018; 3355-33680899-8418CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.5505info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.5505info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T11:04:43Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/97299instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 11:04:43.762CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level
title Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level
spellingShingle Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level
Montroull, Natalia Blanca
GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE TARGET
HYDROLOGY
LA PLATA BASIN
REGIONAL HYDROLOGY IMPACT
title_short Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level
title_full Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level
title_fullStr Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level
title_full_unstemmed Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level
title_sort Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Montroull, Natalia Blanca
Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
Camilloni, Ines Angela
author Montroull, Natalia Blanca
author_facet Montroull, Natalia Blanca
Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
Camilloni, Ines Angela
author_role author
author2 Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
Camilloni, Ines Angela
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE TARGET
HYDROLOGY
LA PLATA BASIN
REGIONAL HYDROLOGY IMPACT
topic GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE TARGET
HYDROLOGY
LA PLATA BASIN
REGIONAL HYDROLOGY IMPACT
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The assessment of regional climate and hydrological impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase became vital to guide decision makers and water management planners after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. With current emission trends close to a pathway of 3 °C warming by the end of the present century, this study investigates the projected regional hydrology impacts over La Plata basin (LPB) for the warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2 °C established in Paris and for 3 °C above the pre-industrial level. We also explore the consequences from following a medium or high-emission representative concentration pathway (RCP) to achieve the different warming targets. In order to determine the possible changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharges, we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)-distributed hydrology model in combination of bias-corrected GCM outputs from the Inter-Sectorial Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP). Because the behaviour of the hydrometeorological variables is not homogeneous over LPB, we analysed impacts of the different changes in mean global temperature and RCPs over four sub-basins: Paraguay, Paraná, Iguazú and Uruguay. Overall, most of the changes over the sub-basins suggest moister conditions with increasing temperatures. The comparison of the RCPs indicates that increases in precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff would be larger under the medium-emission scenario. When the different responses of the various components of the terrestrial water cycle were integrated, results show that variation of annual mean streamflow in all sub-basins ranges between ±20%. However, in most cases, the sign of the changes highly depends on the RCP chosen to achieve a warming level.
Fil: Montroull, Natalia Blanca. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
description The assessment of regional climate and hydrological impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase became vital to guide decision makers and water management planners after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. With current emission trends close to a pathway of 3 °C warming by the end of the present century, this study investigates the projected regional hydrology impacts over La Plata basin (LPB) for the warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2 °C established in Paris and for 3 °C above the pre-industrial level. We also explore the consequences from following a medium or high-emission representative concentration pathway (RCP) to achieve the different warming targets. In order to determine the possible changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharges, we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)-distributed hydrology model in combination of bias-corrected GCM outputs from the Inter-Sectorial Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP). Because the behaviour of the hydrometeorological variables is not homogeneous over LPB, we analysed impacts of the different changes in mean global temperature and RCPs over four sub-basins: Paraguay, Paraná, Iguazú and Uruguay. Overall, most of the changes over the sub-basins suggest moister conditions with increasing temperatures. The comparison of the RCPs indicates that increases in precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff would be larger under the medium-emission scenario. When the different responses of the various components of the terrestrial water cycle were integrated, results show that variation of annual mean streamflow in all sub-basins ranges between ±20%. However, in most cases, the sign of the changes highly depends on the RCP chosen to achieve a warming level.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018-06
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/97299
Montroull, Natalia Blanca; Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 38; 8; 6-2018; 3355-3368
0899-8418
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/97299
identifier_str_mv Montroull, Natalia Blanca; Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 38; 8; 6-2018; 3355-3368
0899-8418
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.5505
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.5505
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Ltd
publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Ltd
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
_version_ 1846781311010734080
score 12.982451

Publicaciones similares