A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems

• Autores: Mosnier, Aline; Javalera Rincon, Valeria; Jones, Sarah K; Andrew, Robbie; Bai, Zhaohai; Baker, Justin; Basnet, Shyam; Boer, Rizaldi; Chavarro, John; Costa, Wanderson; Daloz, Anne Sophie; DeClerck, Fabrice A.; Diaz, Maria; Douzal, Clara; Howe Fan, Andrew Chiah; Fetzer, Ingo; Frank, Federico; Gonzalez Abraham, Charlotte E.; Habiburrachman, A. H. F.; Immanuel, Gito; Harrison, Paula A.; Imanirareba, Dative; Jha, Chandan; Monjeau, Jorge Adrian; Vittis, Yiorgos; Wade, Chris; Winarni, Nurul L.; Woldeyes, Firew Bekele; Wu, Grace C.; Zerriffi, Hisham
• Año de publicación: 2023
• Idioma: inglés
• Tipo de recurso: artículo
• Materia: AGRICULTURAL MODELS; BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION; DEFORESTATION; FOOD SECURITY; TRADE
• Institución: Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas

The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020-2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.
Fil: Mosnier, Aline. Sustainable Development Solutions Network; Francia
Fil: Javalera Rincon, Valeria. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg; Austria
Fil: Jones, Sarah K. Alliance of Bioversity International; Francia
Fil: Andrew, Robbie. Center for International Climate Research; Noruega
Fil: Bai, Zhaohai. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China
Fil: Baker, Justin. North Carolina State University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Basnet, Shyam. Stockholm Resilience Centre; Suecia
Fil: Boer, Rizaldi. Bogor Agricultural University; Indonesia
Fil: Chavarro, John. Geo-agro-environmental Sciences And Resources Research Center; Colombia
Fil: Costa, Wanderson. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Daloz, Anne Sophie. Center for International Climate Research; Noruega
Fil: DeClerck, Fabrice A.. Alliance of Bioversity International; Francia. Stockholm Resilience Centre; Suecia
Fil: Diaz, Maria. Sustainable Development Solutions Network; Francia
Fil: Douzal, Clara. Sustainable Development Solutions Network; Francia
Fil: Howe Fan, Andrew Chiah. Sunway University; Malasia
Fil: Fetzer, Ingo. Stockholm Resilience Centre; Suecia
Fil: Frank, Federico. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires; Argentina
Fil: Gonzalez Abraham, Charlotte E.. University of California at San Diego; Estados Unidos
Fil: Habiburrachman, A. H. F.. Universitas Indonesia; Indonesia
Fil: Immanuel, Gito. Stockholm Resilience Centre; Suecia
Fil: Harrison, Paula A.. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology; Reino Unido
Fil: Imanirareba, Dative. Uganda Martyrs University; Uganda
Fil: Jha, Chandan. Indian Institute Of Management Ahmedabad; India
Fil: Monjeau, Jorge Adrian. Fundación Bariloche; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Vittis, Yiorgos. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; Austria
Fil: Wade, Chris. North Carolina State University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Winarni, Nurul L.. Universitas Indonesia; Indonesia
Fil: Woldeyes, Firew Bekele. Ethiopian Development Research Institute; Etiopía
Fil: Wu, Grace C.. University of California; Estados Unidos
Fil: Zerriffi, Hisham. University of British Columbia; Canadá