Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions
- Autores
- Puliafito, Salvador Enrique; Puliafito, José Luis; Conte Grand, Mariana
- Año de publicación
- 2008
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.
Fil: Puliafito, Salvador Enrique. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza; Argentina
Fil: Puliafito, José Luis. Universidad de Mendoza; Argentina
Fil: Conte Grand, Mariana. Universidad del Cema. Departamento de Economía; Argentina - Materia
-
CARBON EMISSION MODEL
ECONOMIC GROWTH
LOTKA-VOLTERRA EQUATIONS
POPULATION DYNAMICS
PREY-PREDATOR MODEL
PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/131739
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
id |
CONICETDig_e492f95970fbe67d73f9968bd0a252be |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/131739 |
network_acronym_str |
CONICETDig |
repository_id_str |
3498 |
network_name_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
spelling |
Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissionsPuliafito, Salvador EnriquePuliafito, José LuisConte Grand, MarianaCARBON EMISSION MODELECONOMIC GROWTHLOTKA-VOLTERRA EQUATIONSPOPULATION DYNAMICSPREY-PREDATOR MODELPRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTIONhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.Fil: Puliafito, Salvador Enrique. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza; ArgentinaFil: Puliafito, José Luis. Universidad de Mendoza; ArgentinaFil: Conte Grand, Mariana. Universidad del Cema. Departamento de Economía; ArgentinaElsevier Science2008-04-15info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/131739Puliafito, Salvador Enrique; Puliafito, José Luis; Conte Grand, Mariana; Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions; Elsevier Science; Ecological Economics; 65; 3; 15-4-2008; 602-6150921-8009CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.08.010info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800907004375info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:43:44Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/131739instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:43:44.942CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions |
title |
Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions |
spellingShingle |
Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions Puliafito, Salvador Enrique CARBON EMISSION MODEL ECONOMIC GROWTH LOTKA-VOLTERRA EQUATIONS POPULATION DYNAMICS PREY-PREDATOR MODEL PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION |
title_short |
Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions |
title_full |
Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions |
title_fullStr |
Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions |
title_sort |
Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Puliafito, Salvador Enrique Puliafito, José Luis Conte Grand, Mariana |
author |
Puliafito, Salvador Enrique |
author_facet |
Puliafito, Salvador Enrique Puliafito, José Luis Conte Grand, Mariana |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Puliafito, José Luis Conte Grand, Mariana |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
CARBON EMISSION MODEL ECONOMIC GROWTH LOTKA-VOLTERRA EQUATIONS POPULATION DYNAMICS PREY-PREDATOR MODEL PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION |
topic |
CARBON EMISSION MODEL ECONOMIC GROWTH LOTKA-VOLTERRA EQUATIONS POPULATION DYNAMICS PREY-PREDATOR MODEL PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years. Fil: Puliafito, Salvador Enrique. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza; Argentina Fil: Puliafito, José Luis. Universidad de Mendoza; Argentina Fil: Conte Grand, Mariana. Universidad del Cema. Departamento de Economía; Argentina |
description |
Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years. |
publishDate |
2008 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2008-04-15 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/131739 Puliafito, Salvador Enrique; Puliafito, José Luis; Conte Grand, Mariana; Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions; Elsevier Science; Ecological Economics; 65; 3; 15-4-2008; 602-615 0921-8009 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/131739 |
identifier_str_mv |
Puliafito, Salvador Enrique; Puliafito, José Luis; Conte Grand, Mariana; Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions; Elsevier Science; Ecological Economics; 65; 3; 15-4-2008; 602-615 0921-8009 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.08.010 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800907004375 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier Science |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier Science |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
reponame_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
_version_ |
1844613377050017792 |
score |
13.070432 |