Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions

Autores
Puliafito, Salvador Enrique; Puliafito, José Luis; Conte Grand, Mariana
Año de publicación
2008
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.
Fil: Puliafito, Salvador Enrique. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza; Argentina
Fil: Puliafito, José Luis. Universidad de Mendoza; Argentina
Fil: Conte Grand, Mariana. Universidad del Cema. Departamento de Economía; Argentina
Materia
CARBON EMISSION MODEL
ECONOMIC GROWTH
LOTKA-VOLTERRA EQUATIONS
POPULATION DYNAMICS
PREY-PREDATOR MODEL
PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/131739

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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissionsPuliafito, Salvador EnriquePuliafito, José LuisConte Grand, MarianaCARBON EMISSION MODELECONOMIC GROWTHLOTKA-VOLTERRA EQUATIONSPOPULATION DYNAMICSPREY-PREDATOR MODELPRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTIONhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.Fil: Puliafito, Salvador Enrique. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza; ArgentinaFil: Puliafito, José Luis. Universidad de Mendoza; ArgentinaFil: Conte Grand, Mariana. Universidad del Cema. Departamento de Economía; ArgentinaElsevier Science2008-04-15info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/131739Puliafito, Salvador Enrique; Puliafito, José Luis; Conte Grand, Mariana; Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions; Elsevier Science; Ecological Economics; 65; 3; 15-4-2008; 602-6150921-8009CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.08.010info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800907004375info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:43:44Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/131739instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:43:44.942CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions
title Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions
spellingShingle Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions
Puliafito, Salvador Enrique
CARBON EMISSION MODEL
ECONOMIC GROWTH
LOTKA-VOLTERRA EQUATIONS
POPULATION DYNAMICS
PREY-PREDATOR MODEL
PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION
title_short Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions
title_full Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions
title_fullStr Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions
title_full_unstemmed Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions
title_sort Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Puliafito, Salvador Enrique
Puliafito, José Luis
Conte Grand, Mariana
author Puliafito, Salvador Enrique
author_facet Puliafito, Salvador Enrique
Puliafito, José Luis
Conte Grand, Mariana
author_role author
author2 Puliafito, José Luis
Conte Grand, Mariana
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CARBON EMISSION MODEL
ECONOMIC GROWTH
LOTKA-VOLTERRA EQUATIONS
POPULATION DYNAMICS
PREY-PREDATOR MODEL
PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION
topic CARBON EMISSION MODEL
ECONOMIC GROWTH
LOTKA-VOLTERRA EQUATIONS
POPULATION DYNAMICS
PREY-PREDATOR MODEL
PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.
Fil: Puliafito, Salvador Enrique. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza; Argentina
Fil: Puliafito, José Luis. Universidad de Mendoza; Argentina
Fil: Conte Grand, Mariana. Universidad del Cema. Departamento de Economía; Argentina
description Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.
publishDate 2008
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2008-04-15
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/131739
Puliafito, Salvador Enrique; Puliafito, José Luis; Conte Grand, Mariana; Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions; Elsevier Science; Ecological Economics; 65; 3; 15-4-2008; 602-615
0921-8009
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/131739
identifier_str_mv Puliafito, Salvador Enrique; Puliafito, José Luis; Conte Grand, Mariana; Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions; Elsevier Science; Ecological Economics; 65; 3; 15-4-2008; 602-615
0921-8009
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.08.010
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800907004375
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier Science
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier Science
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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