Immunity acquired by a minority active fraction of the population could explain COVID-19 spread in Greater Buenos Aires (June-November 2020)

Autores
Fabricius, Gabriel; Borzi, Rodolfo Alberto; Caminos, José María; Grigera, Tomas Sebastian
Año de publicación
2022
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had an uneven development in different countries. In Argentina, the pandemic began in March 2020 and, during the first 3 months, the vast majority of cases were concentrated in a densely populated region that includes the city of Buenos Aires (country capital) and the Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) area that surrounds it. This work focuses on the spread of COVID-19 between June and November 2020 in GBA. Within this period of time there was no vaccine, basically only the early wild strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was present, and the official restriction and distancing measures in this region remained more or less constant. Under these particular conditions, the incidences show a sharp rise from June 2020 and begin to decrease towards the end of August until the end of November 2020. In this work we study, through mathematical modelling and available epidemiological information, the spread of COVID-19 in this region and period of time. We show that a coherent explanation of the evolution of incidences can be obtained assuming that only a minority fraction of the population got involved in the spread process, so that the incidences decreased as this group of people was becoming immune. The observed evolution of the incidences could then be a consequence at the population level of lasting immunity conferred by SARS-CoV-2.
Fil: Fabricius, Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas; Argentina
Fil: Borzi, Rodolfo Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos; Argentina
Fil: Caminos, José María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos; Argentina
Fil: Grigera, Tomas Sebastian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos; Argentina
Materia
COVID-19
INFECTIOUS DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGY
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
NOTIFIABLE INFECTIOUS DISEASES
SPREAD OF DISEASE
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/212693
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/212693
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Immunity acquired by a minority active fraction of the population could explain COVID-19 spread in Greater Buenos Aires (June-November 2020)Fabricius, GabrielBorzi, Rodolfo AlbertoCaminos, José MaríaGrigera, Tomas SebastianCOVID-19INFECTIOUS DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGYMATHEMATICAL MODELLINGNOTIFIABLE INFECTIOUS DISEASESSPREAD OF DISEASEhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had an uneven development in different countries. In Argentina, the pandemic began in March 2020 and, during the first 3 months, the vast majority of cases were concentrated in a densely populated region that includes the city of Buenos Aires (country capital) and the Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) area that surrounds it. This work focuses on the spread of COVID-19 between June and November 2020 in GBA. Within this period of time there was no vaccine, basically only the early wild strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was present, and the official restriction and distancing measures in this region remained more or less constant. Under these particular conditions, the incidences show a sharp rise from June 2020 and begin to decrease towards the end of August until the end of November 2020. In this work we study, through mathematical modelling and available epidemiological information, the spread of COVID-19 in this region and period of time. We show that a coherent explanation of the evolution of incidences can be obtained assuming that only a minority fraction of the population got involved in the spread process, so that the incidences decreased as this group of people was becoming immune. The observed evolution of the incidences could then be a consequence at the population level of lasting immunity conferred by SARS-CoV-2.Fil: Fabricius, Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas; ArgentinaFil: Borzi, Rodolfo Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos; ArgentinaFil: Caminos, José María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos; ArgentinaFil: Grigera, Tomas Sebastian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos; ArgentinaCambridge University Press2022-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/212693Fabricius, Gabriel; Borzi, Rodolfo Alberto; Caminos, José María; Grigera, Tomas Sebastian; Immunity acquired by a minority active fraction of the population could explain COVID-19 spread in Greater Buenos Aires (June-November 2020); Cambridge University Press; Epidemiology and Infection; 150; 4-2022; 84-840950-2688CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/immunity-acquired-by-a-minority-active-fraction-of-the-population-could-explain-covid19-spread-in-greater-buenos-aires-junenovember-2020/13E0E331D58D1EB80D32541A2B49FF64#articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/S0950268822000656info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:37:42Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/212693instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:37:42.992CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Immunity acquired by a minority active fraction of the population could explain COVID-19 spread in Greater Buenos Aires (June-November 2020)
title Immunity acquired by a minority active fraction of the population could explain COVID-19 spread in Greater Buenos Aires (June-November 2020)
spellingShingle Immunity acquired by a minority active fraction of the population could explain COVID-19 spread in Greater Buenos Aires (June-November 2020)
Fabricius, Gabriel
COVID-19
INFECTIOUS DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGY
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
NOTIFIABLE INFECTIOUS DISEASES
SPREAD OF DISEASE
title_short Immunity acquired by a minority active fraction of the population could explain COVID-19 spread in Greater Buenos Aires (June-November 2020)
title_full Immunity acquired by a minority active fraction of the population could explain COVID-19 spread in Greater Buenos Aires (June-November 2020)
title_fullStr Immunity acquired by a minority active fraction of the population could explain COVID-19 spread in Greater Buenos Aires (June-November 2020)
title_full_unstemmed Immunity acquired by a minority active fraction of the population could explain COVID-19 spread in Greater Buenos Aires (June-November 2020)
title_sort Immunity acquired by a minority active fraction of the population could explain COVID-19 spread in Greater Buenos Aires (June-November 2020)
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Fabricius, Gabriel
Borzi, Rodolfo Alberto
Caminos, José María
Grigera, Tomas Sebastian
author Fabricius, Gabriel
author_facet Fabricius, Gabriel
Borzi, Rodolfo Alberto
Caminos, José María
Grigera, Tomas Sebastian
author_role author
author2 Borzi, Rodolfo Alberto
Caminos, José María
Grigera, Tomas Sebastian
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv COVID-19
INFECTIOUS DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGY
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
NOTIFIABLE INFECTIOUS DISEASES
SPREAD OF DISEASE
topic COVID-19
INFECTIOUS DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGY
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
NOTIFIABLE INFECTIOUS DISEASES
SPREAD OF DISEASE
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.1
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had an uneven development in different countries. In Argentina, the pandemic began in March 2020 and, during the first 3 months, the vast majority of cases were concentrated in a densely populated region that includes the city of Buenos Aires (country capital) and the Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) area that surrounds it. This work focuses on the spread of COVID-19 between June and November 2020 in GBA. Within this period of time there was no vaccine, basically only the early wild strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was present, and the official restriction and distancing measures in this region remained more or less constant. Under these particular conditions, the incidences show a sharp rise from June 2020 and begin to decrease towards the end of August until the end of November 2020. In this work we study, through mathematical modelling and available epidemiological information, the spread of COVID-19 in this region and period of time. We show that a coherent explanation of the evolution of incidences can be obtained assuming that only a minority fraction of the population got involved in the spread process, so that the incidences decreased as this group of people was becoming immune. The observed evolution of the incidences could then be a consequence at the population level of lasting immunity conferred by SARS-CoV-2.
Fil: Fabricius, Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas; Argentina
Fil: Borzi, Rodolfo Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos; Argentina
Fil: Caminos, José María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos; Argentina
Fil: Grigera, Tomas Sebastian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos; Argentina
description The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had an uneven development in different countries. In Argentina, the pandemic began in March 2020 and, during the first 3 months, the vast majority of cases were concentrated in a densely populated region that includes the city of Buenos Aires (country capital) and the Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) area that surrounds it. This work focuses on the spread of COVID-19 between June and November 2020 in GBA. Within this period of time there was no vaccine, basically only the early wild strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was present, and the official restriction and distancing measures in this region remained more or less constant. Under these particular conditions, the incidences show a sharp rise from June 2020 and begin to decrease towards the end of August until the end of November 2020. In this work we study, through mathematical modelling and available epidemiological information, the spread of COVID-19 in this region and period of time. We show that a coherent explanation of the evolution of incidences can be obtained assuming that only a minority fraction of the population got involved in the spread process, so that the incidences decreased as this group of people was becoming immune. The observed evolution of the incidences could then be a consequence at the population level of lasting immunity conferred by SARS-CoV-2.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-04
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/212693
Fabricius, Gabriel; Borzi, Rodolfo Alberto; Caminos, José María; Grigera, Tomas Sebastian; Immunity acquired by a minority active fraction of the population could explain COVID-19 spread in Greater Buenos Aires (June-November 2020); Cambridge University Press; Epidemiology and Infection; 150; 4-2022; 84-84
0950-2688
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/212693
identifier_str_mv Fabricius, Gabriel; Borzi, Rodolfo Alberto; Caminos, José María; Grigera, Tomas Sebastian; Immunity acquired by a minority active fraction of the population could explain COVID-19 spread in Greater Buenos Aires (June-November 2020); Cambridge University Press; Epidemiology and Infection; 150; 4-2022; 84-84
0950-2688
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/immunity-acquired-by-a-minority-active-fraction-of-the-population-could-explain-covid19-spread-in-greater-buenos-aires-junenovember-2020/13E0E331D58D1EB80D32541A2B49FF64#article
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/S0950268822000656
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Cambridge University Press
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Cambridge University Press
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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