Statistical Prediction of wet and dry periods in the Comahue Region (Argentina)

Autores
González, Marcela Hebe; Domínguez, Diana
Año de publicación
2012
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
General features of rainy season with excess or deficits are analyzed using standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Limay and Neuquen River basins. Results indicate that most of dry and wet periods persist less than three months in both basins. Furthermore, an increase of rainfall variability over time is observed in the Limay river basin but it is not detected in the Neuquen river basin. There is a tendency for wet (dry) periods to take place in El Niño (La Niña) years in both basins. Rainfall in both basins, have an important annual cycle with its maximum in winter. In addition, possible causes of extreme rainy seasons over the Limay River Basin are detailed. The main result is that the behavior of low level precipitation systems displacing over the Pacific Ocean in April influences the general hydric situation during the whole rainy season. In order to establish the existence of previous circulation patterns associated with interannual SPI variability, the composite fields of wet and dry years are compared. The result is that rainfall is related to El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and circulation over the Pacific Ocean. The prediction scheme, using multiple linear regressions, showed that 46% of the SPI variance can be explained by this model. The scheme was validated by using a cross-validation method, and significant correlations are detected between observed and forecast SPI. A polynomial model is used and it little improved the linear one, explaining the 49% of the SPI variance. The analysis shows that circulation indicators are useful to predict winter rainfall behavior.
Fil: González, Marcela Hebe. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
Fil: Domínguez, Diana. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Materia
Precipitation
South America
Wet and Dry Periods
Circulation Patterns
Sea Surface Temperature
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17324
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17324
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Statistical Prediction of wet and dry periods in the Comahue Region (Argentina)González, Marcela HebeDomínguez, DianaPrecipitationSouth AmericaWet and Dry PeriodsCirculation PatternsSea Surface Temperaturehttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.7https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1General features of rainy season with excess or deficits are analyzed using standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Limay and Neuquen River basins. Results indicate that most of dry and wet periods persist less than three months in both basins. Furthermore, an increase of rainfall variability over time is observed in the Limay river basin but it is not detected in the Neuquen river basin. There is a tendency for wet (dry) periods to take place in El Niño (La Niña) years in both basins. Rainfall in both basins, have an important annual cycle with its maximum in winter. In addition, possible causes of extreme rainy seasons over the Limay River Basin are detailed. The main result is that the behavior of low level precipitation systems displacing over the Pacific Ocean in April influences the general hydric situation during the whole rainy season. In order to establish the existence of previous circulation patterns associated with interannual SPI variability, the composite fields of wet and dry years are compared. The result is that rainfall is related to El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and circulation over the Pacific Ocean. The prediction scheme, using multiple linear regressions, showed that 46% of the SPI variance can be explained by this model. The scheme was validated by using a cross-validation method, and significant correlations are detected between observed and forecast SPI. A polynomial model is used and it little improved the linear one, explaining the 49% of the SPI variance. The analysis shows that circulation indicators are useful to predict winter rainfall behavior.Fil: González, Marcela Hebe. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; ArgentinaFil: Domínguez, Diana. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaScientific Research2012-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/17324González, Marcela Hebe; Domínguez, Diana; Statistical Prediction of wet and dry periods in the Comahue Region (Argentina); Scientific Research; Atmospheric and Climate Sciences; 2; 1; 1-2012; 23-312160-0414enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.4236/acs.2012.21004info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=17124info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T10:01:10Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17324instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 10:01:10.663CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Statistical Prediction of wet and dry periods in the Comahue Region (Argentina)
title Statistical Prediction of wet and dry periods in the Comahue Region (Argentina)
spellingShingle Statistical Prediction of wet and dry periods in the Comahue Region (Argentina)
González, Marcela Hebe
Precipitation
South America
Wet and Dry Periods
Circulation Patterns
Sea Surface Temperature
title_short Statistical Prediction of wet and dry periods in the Comahue Region (Argentina)
title_full Statistical Prediction of wet and dry periods in the Comahue Region (Argentina)
title_fullStr Statistical Prediction of wet and dry periods in the Comahue Region (Argentina)
title_full_unstemmed Statistical Prediction of wet and dry periods in the Comahue Region (Argentina)
title_sort Statistical Prediction of wet and dry periods in the Comahue Region (Argentina)
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv González, Marcela Hebe
Domínguez, Diana
author González, Marcela Hebe
author_facet González, Marcela Hebe
Domínguez, Diana
author_role author
author2 Domínguez, Diana
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Precipitation
South America
Wet and Dry Periods
Circulation Patterns
Sea Surface Temperature
topic Precipitation
South America
Wet and Dry Periods
Circulation Patterns
Sea Surface Temperature
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.7
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv General features of rainy season with excess or deficits are analyzed using standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Limay and Neuquen River basins. Results indicate that most of dry and wet periods persist less than three months in both basins. Furthermore, an increase of rainfall variability over time is observed in the Limay river basin but it is not detected in the Neuquen river basin. There is a tendency for wet (dry) periods to take place in El Niño (La Niña) years in both basins. Rainfall in both basins, have an important annual cycle with its maximum in winter. In addition, possible causes of extreme rainy seasons over the Limay River Basin are detailed. The main result is that the behavior of low level precipitation systems displacing over the Pacific Ocean in April influences the general hydric situation during the whole rainy season. In order to establish the existence of previous circulation patterns associated with interannual SPI variability, the composite fields of wet and dry years are compared. The result is that rainfall is related to El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and circulation over the Pacific Ocean. The prediction scheme, using multiple linear regressions, showed that 46% of the SPI variance can be explained by this model. The scheme was validated by using a cross-validation method, and significant correlations are detected between observed and forecast SPI. A polynomial model is used and it little improved the linear one, explaining the 49% of the SPI variance. The analysis shows that circulation indicators are useful to predict winter rainfall behavior.
Fil: González, Marcela Hebe. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
Fil: Domínguez, Diana. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
description General features of rainy season with excess or deficits are analyzed using standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Limay and Neuquen River basins. Results indicate that most of dry and wet periods persist less than three months in both basins. Furthermore, an increase of rainfall variability over time is observed in the Limay river basin but it is not detected in the Neuquen river basin. There is a tendency for wet (dry) periods to take place in El Niño (La Niña) years in both basins. Rainfall in both basins, have an important annual cycle with its maximum in winter. In addition, possible causes of extreme rainy seasons over the Limay River Basin are detailed. The main result is that the behavior of low level precipitation systems displacing over the Pacific Ocean in April influences the general hydric situation during the whole rainy season. In order to establish the existence of previous circulation patterns associated with interannual SPI variability, the composite fields of wet and dry years are compared. The result is that rainfall is related to El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and circulation over the Pacific Ocean. The prediction scheme, using multiple linear regressions, showed that 46% of the SPI variance can be explained by this model. The scheme was validated by using a cross-validation method, and significant correlations are detected between observed and forecast SPI. A polynomial model is used and it little improved the linear one, explaining the 49% of the SPI variance. The analysis shows that circulation indicators are useful to predict winter rainfall behavior.
publishDate 2012
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2012-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17324
González, Marcela Hebe; Domínguez, Diana; Statistical Prediction of wet and dry periods in the Comahue Region (Argentina); Scientific Research; Atmospheric and Climate Sciences; 2; 1; 1-2012; 23-31
2160-0414
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17324
identifier_str_mv González, Marcela Hebe; Domínguez, Diana; Statistical Prediction of wet and dry periods in the Comahue Region (Argentina); Scientific Research; Atmospheric and Climate Sciences; 2; 1; 1-2012; 23-31
2160-0414
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.4236/acs.2012.21004
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=17124
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Scientific Research
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Scientific Research
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
_version_ 1842269680710975488
score 13.13397

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