Circulation patterns and associated rainfall over south tropical South America: GCMs evaluation during the dry-to-wet transition season

Autores
Olmo, Matías Ezequiel; Espinoza, J. C.; Bettolli, Maria Laura; Sierra, Juan Pablo; Junquas, C.; Arias, P. A.; Moron, Vincent; Balmaceda Huarte, Rocio
Año de publicación
2022
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The representation of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) by general circulation models (GCMs) is of key relevance for a better understanding of the physical rationale behind the recent climate changes over South Tropical South America (STSA) and their expected changes in a global warming scenario. During the last four decades, STSA experienced a lengthening of the dry season associated with diverse forcings. In this work, a set of 16 GCMs historical Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 coupled simulations were evaluated during 1979–2014 in terms of how well they reproduced the atmospheric circulation over STSA through a circulation-patterns (CPs) approach. Nine CPs were first identified based on low-level winds from the ERA5 reanalysis. Focus was put on the representation of CPs during the dry-to-wet transition season (July-October). Model performance depended on the seasonal cycle and spatial structure of the CPs. GCMs adequately reproduced the different CPs, with lower skills in the transition seasons. GCMs tended to go from dry to wet conditions too quickly, evidencing deficiencies in the representation of the SAMS onset, related to a poor representation of the southerly wind intrusions to STSA and the variability of the South American low-level jet. Some GCMs were able to associate the occurrence of anomalous dry and wet years with specific CPs, suggesting well-represented physical mechanisms controlling precipitation variability. This study could identify a few GCMs that adequately simulated the CPs in STSA (among them, CESM2, CMCC-CM2-HR4 and MPI-ESM1-2-HR), which is relevant for driving high-resolution models and the analysis of future projections.
Fil: Olmo, Matías Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Espinoza, J. C.. Universite Grenoble Alpes; Francia
Fil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Sierra, Juan Pablo. Universite Grenoble Alpes; Francia
Fil: Junquas, C.. Universite Grenoble Alpes; Francia
Fil: Arias, P. A.. Universidad de Antioquia; Colombia
Fil: Moron, Vincent. Aix-Marseille University; Francia. Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Balmaceda Huarte, Rocio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Materia
AMAZON REGION
CIRCULATION PATTERNS
CMIP6
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
PRECIPITATION
SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/162774
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/162774
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Circulation patterns and associated rainfall over south tropical South America: GCMs evaluation during the dry-to-wet transition seasonOlmo, Matías EzequielEspinoza, J. C.Bettolli, Maria LauraSierra, Juan PabloJunquas, C.Arias, P. A.Moron, VincentBalmaceda Huarte, RocioAMAZON REGIONCIRCULATION PATTERNSCMIP6GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELSPRECIPITATIONSOUTH AMERICAN MONSOONhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The representation of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) by general circulation models (GCMs) is of key relevance for a better understanding of the physical rationale behind the recent climate changes over South Tropical South America (STSA) and their expected changes in a global warming scenario. During the last four decades, STSA experienced a lengthening of the dry season associated with diverse forcings. In this work, a set of 16 GCMs historical Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 coupled simulations were evaluated during 1979–2014 in terms of how well they reproduced the atmospheric circulation over STSA through a circulation-patterns (CPs) approach. Nine CPs were first identified based on low-level winds from the ERA5 reanalysis. Focus was put on the representation of CPs during the dry-to-wet transition season (July-October). Model performance depended on the seasonal cycle and spatial structure of the CPs. GCMs adequately reproduced the different CPs, with lower skills in the transition seasons. GCMs tended to go from dry to wet conditions too quickly, evidencing deficiencies in the representation of the SAMS onset, related to a poor representation of the southerly wind intrusions to STSA and the variability of the South American low-level jet. Some GCMs were able to associate the occurrence of anomalous dry and wet years with specific CPs, suggesting well-represented physical mechanisms controlling precipitation variability. This study could identify a few GCMs that adequately simulated the CPs in STSA (among them, CESM2, CMCC-CM2-HR4 and MPI-ESM1-2-HR), which is relevant for driving high-resolution models and the analysis of future projections.Fil: Olmo, Matías Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Espinoza, J. C.. Universite Grenoble Alpes; FranciaFil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Sierra, Juan Pablo. Universite Grenoble Alpes; FranciaFil: Junquas, C.. Universite Grenoble Alpes; FranciaFil: Arias, P. A.. Universidad de Antioquia; ColombiaFil: Moron, Vincent. Aix-Marseille University; Francia. Columbia University; Estados UnidosFil: Balmaceda Huarte, Rocio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaJohn Wiley & Sons Inc.2022-06info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/162774Olmo, Matías Ezequiel; Espinoza, J. C.; Bettolli, Maria Laura; Sierra, Juan Pablo; Junquas, C.; et al.; Circulation patterns and associated rainfall over south tropical South America: GCMs evaluation during the dry-to-wet transition season; John Wiley & Sons Inc.; Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres; 127; 12; 6-2022; 1-202169-8996CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022JD036468info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2022JD036468info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T10:08:07Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/162774instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 10:08:07.422CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Circulation patterns and associated rainfall over south tropical South America: GCMs evaluation during the dry-to-wet transition season
title Circulation patterns and associated rainfall over south tropical South America: GCMs evaluation during the dry-to-wet transition season
spellingShingle Circulation patterns and associated rainfall over south tropical South America: GCMs evaluation during the dry-to-wet transition season
Olmo, Matías Ezequiel
AMAZON REGION
CIRCULATION PATTERNS
CMIP6
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
PRECIPITATION
SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON
title_short Circulation patterns and associated rainfall over south tropical South America: GCMs evaluation during the dry-to-wet transition season
title_full Circulation patterns and associated rainfall over south tropical South America: GCMs evaluation during the dry-to-wet transition season
title_fullStr Circulation patterns and associated rainfall over south tropical South America: GCMs evaluation during the dry-to-wet transition season
title_full_unstemmed Circulation patterns and associated rainfall over south tropical South America: GCMs evaluation during the dry-to-wet transition season
title_sort Circulation patterns and associated rainfall over south tropical South America: GCMs evaluation during the dry-to-wet transition season
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Olmo, Matías Ezequiel
Espinoza, J. C.
Bettolli, Maria Laura
Sierra, Juan Pablo
Junquas, C.
Arias, P. A.
Moron, Vincent
Balmaceda Huarte, Rocio
author Olmo, Matías Ezequiel
author_facet Olmo, Matías Ezequiel
Espinoza, J. C.
Bettolli, Maria Laura
Sierra, Juan Pablo
Junquas, C.
Arias, P. A.
Moron, Vincent
Balmaceda Huarte, Rocio
author_role author
author2 Espinoza, J. C.
Bettolli, Maria Laura
Sierra, Juan Pablo
Junquas, C.
Arias, P. A.
Moron, Vincent
Balmaceda Huarte, Rocio
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv AMAZON REGION
CIRCULATION PATTERNS
CMIP6
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
PRECIPITATION
SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON
topic AMAZON REGION
CIRCULATION PATTERNS
CMIP6
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
PRECIPITATION
SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The representation of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) by general circulation models (GCMs) is of key relevance for a better understanding of the physical rationale behind the recent climate changes over South Tropical South America (STSA) and their expected changes in a global warming scenario. During the last four decades, STSA experienced a lengthening of the dry season associated with diverse forcings. In this work, a set of 16 GCMs historical Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 coupled simulations were evaluated during 1979–2014 in terms of how well they reproduced the atmospheric circulation over STSA through a circulation-patterns (CPs) approach. Nine CPs were first identified based on low-level winds from the ERA5 reanalysis. Focus was put on the representation of CPs during the dry-to-wet transition season (July-October). Model performance depended on the seasonal cycle and spatial structure of the CPs. GCMs adequately reproduced the different CPs, with lower skills in the transition seasons. GCMs tended to go from dry to wet conditions too quickly, evidencing deficiencies in the representation of the SAMS onset, related to a poor representation of the southerly wind intrusions to STSA and the variability of the South American low-level jet. Some GCMs were able to associate the occurrence of anomalous dry and wet years with specific CPs, suggesting well-represented physical mechanisms controlling precipitation variability. This study could identify a few GCMs that adequately simulated the CPs in STSA (among them, CESM2, CMCC-CM2-HR4 and MPI-ESM1-2-HR), which is relevant for driving high-resolution models and the analysis of future projections.
Fil: Olmo, Matías Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Espinoza, J. C.. Universite Grenoble Alpes; Francia
Fil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Sierra, Juan Pablo. Universite Grenoble Alpes; Francia
Fil: Junquas, C.. Universite Grenoble Alpes; Francia
Fil: Arias, P. A.. Universidad de Antioquia; Colombia
Fil: Moron, Vincent. Aix-Marseille University; Francia. Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Balmaceda Huarte, Rocio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
description The representation of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) by general circulation models (GCMs) is of key relevance for a better understanding of the physical rationale behind the recent climate changes over South Tropical South America (STSA) and their expected changes in a global warming scenario. During the last four decades, STSA experienced a lengthening of the dry season associated with diverse forcings. In this work, a set of 16 GCMs historical Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 coupled simulations were evaluated during 1979–2014 in terms of how well they reproduced the atmospheric circulation over STSA through a circulation-patterns (CPs) approach. Nine CPs were first identified based on low-level winds from the ERA5 reanalysis. Focus was put on the representation of CPs during the dry-to-wet transition season (July-October). Model performance depended on the seasonal cycle and spatial structure of the CPs. GCMs adequately reproduced the different CPs, with lower skills in the transition seasons. GCMs tended to go from dry to wet conditions too quickly, evidencing deficiencies in the representation of the SAMS onset, related to a poor representation of the southerly wind intrusions to STSA and the variability of the South American low-level jet. Some GCMs were able to associate the occurrence of anomalous dry and wet years with specific CPs, suggesting well-represented physical mechanisms controlling precipitation variability. This study could identify a few GCMs that adequately simulated the CPs in STSA (among them, CESM2, CMCC-CM2-HR4 and MPI-ESM1-2-HR), which is relevant for driving high-resolution models and the analysis of future projections.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-06
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/162774
Olmo, Matías Ezequiel; Espinoza, J. C.; Bettolli, Maria Laura; Sierra, Juan Pablo; Junquas, C.; et al.; Circulation patterns and associated rainfall over south tropical South America: GCMs evaluation during the dry-to-wet transition season; John Wiley & Sons Inc.; Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres; 127; 12; 6-2022; 1-20
2169-8996
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/162774
identifier_str_mv Olmo, Matías Ezequiel; Espinoza, J. C.; Bettolli, Maria Laura; Sierra, Juan Pablo; Junquas, C.; et al.; Circulation patterns and associated rainfall over south tropical South America: GCMs evaluation during the dry-to-wet transition season; John Wiley & Sons Inc.; Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres; 127; 12; 6-2022; 1-20
2169-8996
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022JD036468
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2022JD036468
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Inc.
publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Inc.
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 12.885934

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