Global climate change effects on Venezuela´s vulnerability to Chagas Disease is linked to the geographic distribution of five Triatomine Species

Autores
Ceccarelli, Soledad; Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo
Año de publicación
2015
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
We analyzed the possible effects of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution in Venezuela of five species of triatomines (Eratyrus mucronatus (Stal, 1859), Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille, 1811), Rhodnius prolixus (Sta° l, 1859), Rhodnius robustus (Larrousse, 1927), and Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848)), vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease. To obtain the future potential geographic distributions, expressed as climatic niche suitability, we modeled the presences of these species using two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) future emission scenarios of global climate change (A1B and B1), the Global Climate model CSIRO Mark 3.0, and three periods of future projections (years 2020, 2060, and 2080). After estimating with the MaxEnt software the future climatic niche suitability for each species, scenario, and period of future projections, we estimated a series of indexes of Venezuela's vulnerability at the county, state, and country level, measured as the number of people exposed due to the changes in the geographical distribution of the five triatomine species analyzed. Despite that this is not a measure of the risk of Chagas disease transmission, we conclude that possible future effects of global climate change on the Venezuelan population vulnerability show a slightly decreasing trend, even taking into account future population growth; we can expect fewer locations in Venezuela where an average Venezuelan citizen would be exposed to triatomines in the next 50–70 yr.
Fil: Ceccarelli, Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (i); Argentina
Fil: Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (i); Argentina
Materia
Triatominae
Species Distribution Modelling
Maxent
Climate Change
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/9796
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/9796
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Global climate change effects on Venezuela´s vulnerability to Chagas Disease is linked to the geographic distribution of five Triatomine SpeciesCeccarelli, SoledadRabinovich, Jorge EduardoTriatominaeSpecies Distribution ModellingMaxentClimate Changehttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1We analyzed the possible effects of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution in Venezuela of five species of triatomines (Eratyrus mucronatus (Stal, 1859), Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille, 1811), Rhodnius prolixus (Sta° l, 1859), Rhodnius robustus (Larrousse, 1927), and Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848)), vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease. To obtain the future potential geographic distributions, expressed as climatic niche suitability, we modeled the presences of these species using two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) future emission scenarios of global climate change (A1B and B1), the Global Climate model CSIRO Mark 3.0, and three periods of future projections (years 2020, 2060, and 2080). After estimating with the MaxEnt software the future climatic niche suitability for each species, scenario, and period of future projections, we estimated a series of indexes of Venezuela's vulnerability at the county, state, and country level, measured as the number of people exposed due to the changes in the geographical distribution of the five triatomine species analyzed. Despite that this is not a measure of the risk of Chagas disease transmission, we conclude that possible future effects of global climate change on the Venezuelan population vulnerability show a slightly decreasing trend, even taking into account future population growth; we can expect fewer locations in Venezuela where an average Venezuelan citizen would be exposed to triatomines in the next 50–70 yr.Fil: Ceccarelli, Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (i); ArgentinaFil: Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (i); ArgentinaEntomological Society Of America2015-08info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/9796Ceccarelli, Soledad; Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo; Global climate change effects on Venezuela´s vulnerability to Chagas Disease is linked to the geographic distribution of five Triatomine Species; Entomological Society Of America; Journal Of Medical Entomology; 52; 6; 8-2015; 1333-13430022-25851938-2928enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1093/jme/tjv119info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://jme.oxfordjournals.org/content/52/6/1333.longinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-29T12:01:08Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/9796instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-29 12:01:08.918CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Global climate change effects on Venezuela´s vulnerability to Chagas Disease is linked to the geographic distribution of five Triatomine Species
title Global climate change effects on Venezuela´s vulnerability to Chagas Disease is linked to the geographic distribution of five Triatomine Species
spellingShingle Global climate change effects on Venezuela´s vulnerability to Chagas Disease is linked to the geographic distribution of five Triatomine Species
Ceccarelli, Soledad
Triatominae
Species Distribution Modelling
Maxent
Climate Change
title_short Global climate change effects on Venezuela´s vulnerability to Chagas Disease is linked to the geographic distribution of five Triatomine Species
title_full Global climate change effects on Venezuela´s vulnerability to Chagas Disease is linked to the geographic distribution of five Triatomine Species
title_fullStr Global climate change effects on Venezuela´s vulnerability to Chagas Disease is linked to the geographic distribution of five Triatomine Species
title_full_unstemmed Global climate change effects on Venezuela´s vulnerability to Chagas Disease is linked to the geographic distribution of five Triatomine Species
title_sort Global climate change effects on Venezuela´s vulnerability to Chagas Disease is linked to the geographic distribution of five Triatomine Species
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Ceccarelli, Soledad
Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo
author Ceccarelli, Soledad
author_facet Ceccarelli, Soledad
Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo
author_role author
author2 Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Triatominae
Species Distribution Modelling
Maxent
Climate Change
topic Triatominae
Species Distribution Modelling
Maxent
Climate Change
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv We analyzed the possible effects of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution in Venezuela of five species of triatomines (Eratyrus mucronatus (Stal, 1859), Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille, 1811), Rhodnius prolixus (Sta° l, 1859), Rhodnius robustus (Larrousse, 1927), and Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848)), vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease. To obtain the future potential geographic distributions, expressed as climatic niche suitability, we modeled the presences of these species using two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) future emission scenarios of global climate change (A1B and B1), the Global Climate model CSIRO Mark 3.0, and three periods of future projections (years 2020, 2060, and 2080). After estimating with the MaxEnt software the future climatic niche suitability for each species, scenario, and period of future projections, we estimated a series of indexes of Venezuela's vulnerability at the county, state, and country level, measured as the number of people exposed due to the changes in the geographical distribution of the five triatomine species analyzed. Despite that this is not a measure of the risk of Chagas disease transmission, we conclude that possible future effects of global climate change on the Venezuelan population vulnerability show a slightly decreasing trend, even taking into account future population growth; we can expect fewer locations in Venezuela where an average Venezuelan citizen would be exposed to triatomines in the next 50–70 yr.
Fil: Ceccarelli, Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (i); Argentina
Fil: Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (i); Argentina
description We analyzed the possible effects of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution in Venezuela of five species of triatomines (Eratyrus mucronatus (Stal, 1859), Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille, 1811), Rhodnius prolixus (Sta° l, 1859), Rhodnius robustus (Larrousse, 1927), and Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848)), vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease. To obtain the future potential geographic distributions, expressed as climatic niche suitability, we modeled the presences of these species using two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) future emission scenarios of global climate change (A1B and B1), the Global Climate model CSIRO Mark 3.0, and three periods of future projections (years 2020, 2060, and 2080). After estimating with the MaxEnt software the future climatic niche suitability for each species, scenario, and period of future projections, we estimated a series of indexes of Venezuela's vulnerability at the county, state, and country level, measured as the number of people exposed due to the changes in the geographical distribution of the five triatomine species analyzed. Despite that this is not a measure of the risk of Chagas disease transmission, we conclude that possible future effects of global climate change on the Venezuelan population vulnerability show a slightly decreasing trend, even taking into account future population growth; we can expect fewer locations in Venezuela where an average Venezuelan citizen would be exposed to triatomines in the next 50–70 yr.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-08
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/9796
Ceccarelli, Soledad; Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo; Global climate change effects on Venezuela´s vulnerability to Chagas Disease is linked to the geographic distribution of five Triatomine Species; Entomological Society Of America; Journal Of Medical Entomology; 52; 6; 8-2015; 1333-1343
0022-2585
1938-2928
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/9796
identifier_str_mv Ceccarelli, Soledad; Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo; Global climate change effects on Venezuela´s vulnerability to Chagas Disease is linked to the geographic distribution of five Triatomine Species; Entomological Society Of America; Journal Of Medical Entomology; 52; 6; 8-2015; 1333-1343
0022-2585
1938-2928
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1093/jme/tjv119
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://jme.oxfordjournals.org/content/52/6/1333.long
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Entomological Society Of America
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Entomological Society Of America
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.10058

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