Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity

Autores
Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, Jürgen V.
Año de publicación
2017
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
In the last decades drought has become one of the natural disasters with most relevant impacts in Europe and this not only in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean that are inclined to such events. As a complex natural phenomenon, drought is characterized by many hydro-meteorological aspects, a large variety of possible impacts and definitions. This study focuses on meteorological drought, investigated by using indicators that include precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), i.e. the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). These indicators account for the lack of precipitation and the drying effects of hot temperatures and in this study have been computed for short-accumulation periods (3-month) to capture the seasonality of droughts. The input variables, monthly precipitation and temperature for 1950–2015, stem from daily gridded E-OBS data and indicators were computed on regular grids spanning over the whole of Europe. PET was calculated from minimum and maximum temperatures using the Hargreaves-Samani formulation. Monthly precipitation and PET have then been used to compute the SPI-3 and the SPEI-3 time series. From these series drought events were defined at seasonal scale and trends of frequency and severity of droughts and extreme droughts were analyzed for the periods 1950–2015 and 1981–2015. According to the SPI (driven by precipitation), results show a statistically significant tendency towards less frequent and severe drought events over North-Eastern Europe, especially in winter and spring, and a moderate opposite tendency over Southern Europe, especially in spring and summer. According to the SPEI (driven by precipitation and temperature), Northern Europe shows similar wetting patterns, while Southern and Eastern Europe show a more remarkable drying tendency, especially in summer and autumn. Both for frequency and severity, the evolution towards drier conditions is more relevant in the last three decades over Central Europe in spring, the Mediterranean area in summer, and Eastern Europe in autumn.
Fil: Spinoni, Jonathan. GFT Italy; Italia
Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Vogt, Jürgen V.. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Materia
DROUGHT
E-OBS
EUROPE
SEASONAL
SPEI
SPI
TRENDS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/59701

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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severitySpinoni, JonathanNaumann, GustavoVogt, Jürgen V.DROUGHTE-OBSEUROPESEASONALSPEISPITRENDShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1In the last decades drought has become one of the natural disasters with most relevant impacts in Europe and this not only in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean that are inclined to such events. As a complex natural phenomenon, drought is characterized by many hydro-meteorological aspects, a large variety of possible impacts and definitions. This study focuses on meteorological drought, investigated by using indicators that include precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), i.e. the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). These indicators account for the lack of precipitation and the drying effects of hot temperatures and in this study have been computed for short-accumulation periods (3-month) to capture the seasonality of droughts. The input variables, monthly precipitation and temperature for 1950–2015, stem from daily gridded E-OBS data and indicators were computed on regular grids spanning over the whole of Europe. PET was calculated from minimum and maximum temperatures using the Hargreaves-Samani formulation. Monthly precipitation and PET have then been used to compute the SPI-3 and the SPEI-3 time series. From these series drought events were defined at seasonal scale and trends of frequency and severity of droughts and extreme droughts were analyzed for the periods 1950–2015 and 1981–2015. According to the SPI (driven by precipitation), results show a statistically significant tendency towards less frequent and severe drought events over North-Eastern Europe, especially in winter and spring, and a moderate opposite tendency over Southern Europe, especially in spring and summer. According to the SPEI (driven by precipitation and temperature), Northern Europe shows similar wetting patterns, while Southern and Eastern Europe show a more remarkable drying tendency, especially in summer and autumn. Both for frequency and severity, the evolution towards drier conditions is more relevant in the last three decades over Central Europe in spring, the Mediterranean area in summer, and Eastern Europe in autumn.Fil: Spinoni, Jonathan. GFT Italy; ItaliaFil: Naumann, Gustavo. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Vogt, Jürgen V.. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaElsevier Science2017-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/59701Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, Jürgen V.; Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity; Elsevier Science; Global and Planetary Change; 148; 1-2017; 113-1300921-8181CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.11.013info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116301801info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:40:59Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/59701instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:40:59.543CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity
title Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity
spellingShingle Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity
Spinoni, Jonathan
DROUGHT
E-OBS
EUROPE
SEASONAL
SPEI
SPI
TRENDS
title_short Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity
title_full Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity
title_fullStr Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity
title_full_unstemmed Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity
title_sort Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Spinoni, Jonathan
Naumann, Gustavo
Vogt, Jürgen V.
author Spinoni, Jonathan
author_facet Spinoni, Jonathan
Naumann, Gustavo
Vogt, Jürgen V.
author_role author
author2 Naumann, Gustavo
Vogt, Jürgen V.
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv DROUGHT
E-OBS
EUROPE
SEASONAL
SPEI
SPI
TRENDS
topic DROUGHT
E-OBS
EUROPE
SEASONAL
SPEI
SPI
TRENDS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv In the last decades drought has become one of the natural disasters with most relevant impacts in Europe and this not only in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean that are inclined to such events. As a complex natural phenomenon, drought is characterized by many hydro-meteorological aspects, a large variety of possible impacts and definitions. This study focuses on meteorological drought, investigated by using indicators that include precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), i.e. the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). These indicators account for the lack of precipitation and the drying effects of hot temperatures and in this study have been computed for short-accumulation periods (3-month) to capture the seasonality of droughts. The input variables, monthly precipitation and temperature for 1950–2015, stem from daily gridded E-OBS data and indicators were computed on regular grids spanning over the whole of Europe. PET was calculated from minimum and maximum temperatures using the Hargreaves-Samani formulation. Monthly precipitation and PET have then been used to compute the SPI-3 and the SPEI-3 time series. From these series drought events were defined at seasonal scale and trends of frequency and severity of droughts and extreme droughts were analyzed for the periods 1950–2015 and 1981–2015. According to the SPI (driven by precipitation), results show a statistically significant tendency towards less frequent and severe drought events over North-Eastern Europe, especially in winter and spring, and a moderate opposite tendency over Southern Europe, especially in spring and summer. According to the SPEI (driven by precipitation and temperature), Northern Europe shows similar wetting patterns, while Southern and Eastern Europe show a more remarkable drying tendency, especially in summer and autumn. Both for frequency and severity, the evolution towards drier conditions is more relevant in the last three decades over Central Europe in spring, the Mediterranean area in summer, and Eastern Europe in autumn.
Fil: Spinoni, Jonathan. GFT Italy; Italia
Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Vogt, Jürgen V.. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia
description In the last decades drought has become one of the natural disasters with most relevant impacts in Europe and this not only in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean that are inclined to such events. As a complex natural phenomenon, drought is characterized by many hydro-meteorological aspects, a large variety of possible impacts and definitions. This study focuses on meteorological drought, investigated by using indicators that include precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), i.e. the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). These indicators account for the lack of precipitation and the drying effects of hot temperatures and in this study have been computed for short-accumulation periods (3-month) to capture the seasonality of droughts. The input variables, monthly precipitation and temperature for 1950–2015, stem from daily gridded E-OBS data and indicators were computed on regular grids spanning over the whole of Europe. PET was calculated from minimum and maximum temperatures using the Hargreaves-Samani formulation. Monthly precipitation and PET have then been used to compute the SPI-3 and the SPEI-3 time series. From these series drought events were defined at seasonal scale and trends of frequency and severity of droughts and extreme droughts were analyzed for the periods 1950–2015 and 1981–2015. According to the SPI (driven by precipitation), results show a statistically significant tendency towards less frequent and severe drought events over North-Eastern Europe, especially in winter and spring, and a moderate opposite tendency over Southern Europe, especially in spring and summer. According to the SPEI (driven by precipitation and temperature), Northern Europe shows similar wetting patterns, while Southern and Eastern Europe show a more remarkable drying tendency, especially in summer and autumn. Both for frequency and severity, the evolution towards drier conditions is more relevant in the last three decades over Central Europe in spring, the Mediterranean area in summer, and Eastern Europe in autumn.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/59701
Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, Jürgen V.; Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity; Elsevier Science; Global and Planetary Change; 148; 1-2017; 113-130
0921-8181
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/59701
identifier_str_mv Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, Jürgen V.; Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity; Elsevier Science; Global and Planetary Change; 148; 1-2017; 113-130
0921-8181
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.11.013
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116301801
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier Science
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier Science
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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