Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination

Autores
Petri de Odriozola, Elisa; Quintana, Ana María; González, Victor; Pasetto, Roque Antonio; Utgés, María Eugenia; Bruzzone, Octavio Augusto; Arnaiz, Maria Rosa
Año de publicación
2017
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
BACKGROUND: Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina with endemic leprosy, has improved its epidemiological indicators, however, a study of the dynamics over time is lacking. OBJECTIVES We analysed data of 1308 leprosy patients between 1991 to 2014, and the forecast for 2020. METHODS: Descriptive statistics and stepwise Bayesian model selection were performed. Forecasts were made using the median of 100,000 projections using the parameters calculated via Monte Carlo methods. RESULTS: We found a decreasing number of new leprosy cases (-2.04 cases/year); this decrease is expected to continue by an estimated 20.28 +/- 10.00 cases by 2020, evidenced by a sustained decline in detection rate (from 11 to 2.9/100,000 inhabitants). Age groups that were most affected were 15-44 (40.13%) and 45-64 (38.83%) year olds. Multibacillary forms (MB) predominated (70.35%) and while gradually declining, between 10 and 30% developed disability grade 2 (DG2) (0.175 (0.110 - 0.337) DG2/MB cases), with a time delay between 0 to 15 years (median = 0). The proportion of MB clinic forms and DG2 increased and will continuously increase in the short term (0.036 +/- 0.018 logit (MB/total of cases). MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Corrientes is on the way to eliminating leprosy by 2020, however the increased proportion of MB clinical forms and DG2 signals a warning for disease control efforts.
Fil: Petri de Odriozola, Elisa. Programa Provincial para el Control de Leishmaniasis y Lepra; Argentina
Fil: Quintana, Ana María. Programa Nacional para el Control de Tuberculosis y Lepra; Argentina
Fil: González, Victor. Programa Nacional para el Control de Tuberculosis y Lepra; Argentina
Fil: Pasetto, Roque Antonio. Programa Provincial para el Control de Leishmaniasis y Lepra; Argentina
Fil: Utgés, María Eugenia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Dirección Nacional de Institutos de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud. Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico e Investigaciones Endemo-epidémicas; Argentina
Fil: Bruzzone, Octavio Augusto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Fil: Arnaiz, Maria Rosa. Dirección Nacional de Institutos de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud. Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico e Investigaciones Endemo-epidémicas; Argentina
Materia
Epidemiology
Forecast
Infectious Disease
Leprosy
Mycobacterium Leprae
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/75405
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy eliminationPetri de Odriozola, ElisaQuintana, Ana MaríaGonzález, VictorPasetto, Roque AntonioUtgés, María EugeniaBruzzone, Octavio AugustoArnaiz, Maria RosaEpidemiologyForecastInfectious DiseaseLeprosyMycobacterium Lepraehttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3BACKGROUND: Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina with endemic leprosy, has improved its epidemiological indicators, however, a study of the dynamics over time is lacking. OBJECTIVES We analysed data of 1308 leprosy patients between 1991 to 2014, and the forecast for 2020. METHODS: Descriptive statistics and stepwise Bayesian model selection were performed. Forecasts were made using the median of 100,000 projections using the parameters calculated via Monte Carlo methods. RESULTS: We found a decreasing number of new leprosy cases (-2.04 cases/year); this decrease is expected to continue by an estimated 20.28 +/- 10.00 cases by 2020, evidenced by a sustained decline in detection rate (from 11 to 2.9/100,000 inhabitants). Age groups that were most affected were 15-44 (40.13%) and 45-64 (38.83%) year olds. Multibacillary forms (MB) predominated (70.35%) and while gradually declining, between 10 and 30% developed disability grade 2 (DG2) (0.175 (0.110 - 0.337) DG2/MB cases), with a time delay between 0 to 15 years (median = 0). The proportion of MB clinic forms and DG2 increased and will continuously increase in the short term (0.036 +/- 0.018 logit (MB/total of cases). MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Corrientes is on the way to eliminating leprosy by 2020, however the increased proportion of MB clinical forms and DG2 signals a warning for disease control efforts.Fil: Petri de Odriozola, Elisa. Programa Provincial para el Control de Leishmaniasis y Lepra; ArgentinaFil: Quintana, Ana María. Programa Nacional para el Control de Tuberculosis y Lepra; ArgentinaFil: González, Victor. Programa Nacional para el Control de Tuberculosis y Lepra; ArgentinaFil: Pasetto, Roque Antonio. Programa Provincial para el Control de Leishmaniasis y Lepra; ArgentinaFil: Utgés, María Eugenia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Dirección Nacional de Institutos de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud. Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico e Investigaciones Endemo-epidémicas; ArgentinaFil: Bruzzone, Octavio Augusto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Patagonia Norte; ArgentinaFil: Arnaiz, Maria Rosa. Dirección Nacional de Institutos de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud. Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico e Investigaciones Endemo-epidémicas; ArgentinaInstituto Oswaldo Cruz2017-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/75405Petri de Odriozola, Elisa; Quintana, Ana María; González, Victor; Pasetto, Roque Antonio; Utgés, María Eugenia; et al.; Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination; Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; 112; 6; 4-2017; 419-4270074-02761678-8060CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1590/0074-02760160490info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://ref.scielo.org/cr6vrninfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://memorias.ioc.fiocruz.br/article/6273/0490_towards-leprosy-elimination-by-2020-forecasts-of-epidemiological-indicators-of-leprosy-in-corrientes-a-province-of-northeastern-argentina-that-is-a-pioneer-in-leprosy-eliminationinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T11:19:51Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/75405instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 11:19:51.591CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination
title Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination
spellingShingle Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination
Petri de Odriozola, Elisa
Epidemiology
Forecast
Infectious Disease
Leprosy
Mycobacterium Leprae
title_short Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination
title_full Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination
title_fullStr Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination
title_full_unstemmed Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination
title_sort Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Petri de Odriozola, Elisa
Quintana, Ana María
González, Victor
Pasetto, Roque Antonio
Utgés, María Eugenia
Bruzzone, Octavio Augusto
Arnaiz, Maria Rosa
author Petri de Odriozola, Elisa
author_facet Petri de Odriozola, Elisa
Quintana, Ana María
González, Victor
Pasetto, Roque Antonio
Utgés, María Eugenia
Bruzzone, Octavio Augusto
Arnaiz, Maria Rosa
author_role author
author2 Quintana, Ana María
González, Victor
Pasetto, Roque Antonio
Utgés, María Eugenia
Bruzzone, Octavio Augusto
Arnaiz, Maria Rosa
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Epidemiology
Forecast
Infectious Disease
Leprosy
Mycobacterium Leprae
topic Epidemiology
Forecast
Infectious Disease
Leprosy
Mycobacterium Leprae
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv BACKGROUND: Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina with endemic leprosy, has improved its epidemiological indicators, however, a study of the dynamics over time is lacking. OBJECTIVES We analysed data of 1308 leprosy patients between 1991 to 2014, and the forecast for 2020. METHODS: Descriptive statistics and stepwise Bayesian model selection were performed. Forecasts were made using the median of 100,000 projections using the parameters calculated via Monte Carlo methods. RESULTS: We found a decreasing number of new leprosy cases (-2.04 cases/year); this decrease is expected to continue by an estimated 20.28 +/- 10.00 cases by 2020, evidenced by a sustained decline in detection rate (from 11 to 2.9/100,000 inhabitants). Age groups that were most affected were 15-44 (40.13%) and 45-64 (38.83%) year olds. Multibacillary forms (MB) predominated (70.35%) and while gradually declining, between 10 and 30% developed disability grade 2 (DG2) (0.175 (0.110 - 0.337) DG2/MB cases), with a time delay between 0 to 15 years (median = 0). The proportion of MB clinic forms and DG2 increased and will continuously increase in the short term (0.036 +/- 0.018 logit (MB/total of cases). MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Corrientes is on the way to eliminating leprosy by 2020, however the increased proportion of MB clinical forms and DG2 signals a warning for disease control efforts.
Fil: Petri de Odriozola, Elisa. Programa Provincial para el Control de Leishmaniasis y Lepra; Argentina
Fil: Quintana, Ana María. Programa Nacional para el Control de Tuberculosis y Lepra; Argentina
Fil: González, Victor. Programa Nacional para el Control de Tuberculosis y Lepra; Argentina
Fil: Pasetto, Roque Antonio. Programa Provincial para el Control de Leishmaniasis y Lepra; Argentina
Fil: Utgés, María Eugenia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Dirección Nacional de Institutos de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud. Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico e Investigaciones Endemo-epidémicas; Argentina
Fil: Bruzzone, Octavio Augusto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Fil: Arnaiz, Maria Rosa. Dirección Nacional de Institutos de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud. Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico e Investigaciones Endemo-epidémicas; Argentina
description BACKGROUND: Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina with endemic leprosy, has improved its epidemiological indicators, however, a study of the dynamics over time is lacking. OBJECTIVES We analysed data of 1308 leprosy patients between 1991 to 2014, and the forecast for 2020. METHODS: Descriptive statistics and stepwise Bayesian model selection were performed. Forecasts were made using the median of 100,000 projections using the parameters calculated via Monte Carlo methods. RESULTS: We found a decreasing number of new leprosy cases (-2.04 cases/year); this decrease is expected to continue by an estimated 20.28 +/- 10.00 cases by 2020, evidenced by a sustained decline in detection rate (from 11 to 2.9/100,000 inhabitants). Age groups that were most affected were 15-44 (40.13%) and 45-64 (38.83%) year olds. Multibacillary forms (MB) predominated (70.35%) and while gradually declining, between 10 and 30% developed disability grade 2 (DG2) (0.175 (0.110 - 0.337) DG2/MB cases), with a time delay between 0 to 15 years (median = 0). The proportion of MB clinic forms and DG2 increased and will continuously increase in the short term (0.036 +/- 0.018 logit (MB/total of cases). MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Corrientes is on the way to eliminating leprosy by 2020, however the increased proportion of MB clinical forms and DG2 signals a warning for disease control efforts.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017-04
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/75405
Petri de Odriozola, Elisa; Quintana, Ana María; González, Victor; Pasetto, Roque Antonio; Utgés, María Eugenia; et al.; Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination; Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; 112; 6; 4-2017; 419-427
0074-0276
1678-8060
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/75405
identifier_str_mv Petri de Odriozola, Elisa; Quintana, Ana María; González, Victor; Pasetto, Roque Antonio; Utgés, María Eugenia; et al.; Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination; Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; 112; 6; 4-2017; 419-427
0074-0276
1678-8060
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1590/0074-02760160490
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://ref.scielo.org/cr6vrn
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://memorias.ioc.fiocruz.br/article/6273/0490_towards-leprosy-elimination-by-2020-forecasts-of-epidemiological-indicators-of-leprosy-in-corrientes-a-province-of-northeastern-argentina-that-is-a-pioneer-in-leprosy-elimination
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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