Status and forecast of leprosy in the still endemic province of formosa in northern Argentina

• Autores: Arnaiz, Maria Rosa; Iglesias, Mónica Sandra; Franco, José I; Arzamendia, Lucila; Santini, Maria Soledad; Recalde, Hugo C.
• Año de publicación: 2021
• Idioma: inglés
• Tipo de recurso: artículo
• Materia: Lepra; Enfermedad endémica; Enfermedad Infecciosa; Formosa
• Institución: Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas

Background The province of Formosa, Argentina, is endemic for leprosy. In the present paper, we assessed the trend (T, 2002–2016 time series) and the forecast for 2022 of new case detection rate (NCDR) and determined the spatial distribution of new cases detected (NCD) of leprosy. Methodology/Principal findings This is a descriptive observational study of 713 NCD of leprosy from provincial medical records between January 2002 and December 2016. The whole dataset from the provincial medical record was used to independently estimate the NCDR trends of the general population, age groups, sexes and Departments. This same database was used to estimate the NCDR forecast of the general population for 2022, applying a dynamic linear model with a local linear trend, using the MCMC algorithm. The NCDR was higher in men (p<0.05), increased with age (0.20, 8.17, 21.04, and 29.49 for the 0–14, 15–44, 45–64 and over 65-year-old age groups, respectively; p<0.05) and showed a downward trend (negative values) of estimated slopes for the whole province and each Department. Bermejo Department showed the highest (T:-1.02, 95%CI: [-1.42,-0.66]) and Patiño the lowest decreasing trend (T:-0.45, 95%CI: [-0.74,-0.11]). The NCDR trend for both sexes was similar (T:-0.55, 95% CI: [-0.64,-0.46]), and age groups showed a decreasing trend (S15-44:-103, S45-64:-81, S>65:-61, p<0.05), except for the 0–14 age group (S:-3, p>0.05), which showed no trend. Forecasts predicted that leprosy will not be eliminated by 2022 (3.64, 95%CI: [1.22, 10.25]). Conclusions/Significance Our results highlight the status of leprosy in Formosa and provide information to the provincial public health authorities on high-risk populations, stressing the importance of timely detection of new cases for further elimination of the disease in the province.
Fil: Arnaiz, Maria Rosa. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud "Dr. C. G. Malbrán". Instituto Nacional de Parasitología "Dr. Mario Fatala Chaben"; Argentina
Fil: Iglesias, Mónica Sandra. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Biodiversidad y Biología Experimental; Argentina
Fil: Franco, José I. No especifíca;
Fil: Arzamendia, Lucila. No especifíca;
Fil: Santini, Maria Soledad. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud "Dr. C. G. Malbrán". Instituto Nacional de Parasitología "Dr. Mario Fatala Chaben"; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Recalde, Hugo C.. No especifíca;