Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGE-Microsimulation Analysis

Autores
Cicowiez, Martin; Alejo, Osvaldo Javier; Di Gresia, Luciano; Olivieri, Sergio; Pachecho, Ana
Año de publicación
2016
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
In this paper we implement a sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium model combined with a microsimulation model to assess (1) the short- and long-run economic impacts of a gradual reduction in the export tax that was introduced during the economic crisis that hit Argentina at the end of 2001, and (2) the impact of a decrease in the world prices of food products, one of the country’s main export products. Our results show that the elimination of the export tax would have different long run effects depending on the fiscal instrument that is used by the government to compensate for the loss in tax revenue. On the one hand, when the government budget is balanced by decreased savings, the average annual growth rate for 2008-2015 is lower than in the baseline scenario. On the other hand, when the government budget is balanced by an increased direct tax rate, there is a long-run positive effect on growth. In all cases, the employment level is lower and the price of food items is higher. Therefore, the poverty headcount ratio increases. As expected, a reduction in the world price of food items (i.e., a worsening in Argentina’s terms of trade) would impact negatively on the country’s GDP growth rate and poverty, particularly in the rural areas.
Fil: Cicowiez, Martin. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Ciencias Económicas. Centro de Estudios Distributivos Laborales y Sociales; Argentina
Fil: Alejo, Osvaldo Javier. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Ciencias Económicas. Centro de Estudios Distributivos Laborales y Sociales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Di Gresia, Luciano. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina
Fil: Olivieri, Sergio. World Bank; Estados Unidos
Fil: Pachecho, Ana. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Ciencias Económicas. Centro de Estudios Distributivos Laborales y Sociales; Argentina
Materia
Poverty
Fiscal Policy
Computable General Equilibrium Model
Microsimulation Model
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/57401
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGE-Microsimulation AnalysisCicowiez, MartinAlejo, Osvaldo JavierDi Gresia, LucianoOlivieri, SergioPachecho, AnaPovertyFiscal PolicyComputable General Equilibrium ModelMicrosimulation Modelhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.2https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5In this paper we implement a sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium model combined with a microsimulation model to assess (1) the short- and long-run economic impacts of a gradual reduction in the export tax that was introduced during the economic crisis that hit Argentina at the end of 2001, and (2) the impact of a decrease in the world prices of food products, one of the country’s main export products. Our results show that the elimination of the export tax would have different long run effects depending on the fiscal instrument that is used by the government to compensate for the loss in tax revenue. On the one hand, when the government budget is balanced by decreased savings, the average annual growth rate for 2008-2015 is lower than in the baseline scenario. On the other hand, when the government budget is balanced by an increased direct tax rate, there is a long-run positive effect on growth. In all cases, the employment level is lower and the price of food items is higher. Therefore, the poverty headcount ratio increases. As expected, a reduction in the world price of food items (i.e., a worsening in Argentina’s terms of trade) would impact negatively on the country’s GDP growth rate and poverty, particularly in the rural areas.Fil: Cicowiez, Martin. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Ciencias Económicas. Centro de Estudios Distributivos Laborales y Sociales; ArgentinaFil: Alejo, Osvaldo Javier. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Ciencias Económicas. Centro de Estudios Distributivos Laborales y Sociales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Di Gresia, Luciano. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; ArgentinaFil: Olivieri, Sergio. World Bank; Estados UnidosFil: Pachecho, Ana. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Ciencias Económicas. Centro de Estudios Distributivos Laborales y Sociales; ArgentinaInternational Microsimulation Association2016-07info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/57401Cicowiez, Martin; Alejo, Osvaldo Javier; Di Gresia, Luciano; Olivieri, Sergio; Pachecho, Ana; Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGE-Microsimulation Analysis; International Microsimulation Association; International Journal of Microsimulation; 9; 1; 7-2016; 24-541747-5864CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.microsimulation.org/IJM/V9_1/IJM_9_1_2016_Cicowiez.pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T10:05:33Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/57401instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 10:05:33.659CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGE-Microsimulation Analysis
title Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGE-Microsimulation Analysis
spellingShingle Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGE-Microsimulation Analysis
Cicowiez, Martin
Poverty
Fiscal Policy
Computable General Equilibrium Model
Microsimulation Model
title_short Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGE-Microsimulation Analysis
title_full Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGE-Microsimulation Analysis
title_fullStr Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGE-Microsimulation Analysis
title_full_unstemmed Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGE-Microsimulation Analysis
title_sort Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGE-Microsimulation Analysis
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Cicowiez, Martin
Alejo, Osvaldo Javier
Di Gresia, Luciano
Olivieri, Sergio
Pachecho, Ana
author Cicowiez, Martin
author_facet Cicowiez, Martin
Alejo, Osvaldo Javier
Di Gresia, Luciano
Olivieri, Sergio
Pachecho, Ana
author_role author
author2 Alejo, Osvaldo Javier
Di Gresia, Luciano
Olivieri, Sergio
Pachecho, Ana
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Poverty
Fiscal Policy
Computable General Equilibrium Model
Microsimulation Model
topic Poverty
Fiscal Policy
Computable General Equilibrium Model
Microsimulation Model
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.2
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv In this paper we implement a sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium model combined with a microsimulation model to assess (1) the short- and long-run economic impacts of a gradual reduction in the export tax that was introduced during the economic crisis that hit Argentina at the end of 2001, and (2) the impact of a decrease in the world prices of food products, one of the country’s main export products. Our results show that the elimination of the export tax would have different long run effects depending on the fiscal instrument that is used by the government to compensate for the loss in tax revenue. On the one hand, when the government budget is balanced by decreased savings, the average annual growth rate for 2008-2015 is lower than in the baseline scenario. On the other hand, when the government budget is balanced by an increased direct tax rate, there is a long-run positive effect on growth. In all cases, the employment level is lower and the price of food items is higher. Therefore, the poverty headcount ratio increases. As expected, a reduction in the world price of food items (i.e., a worsening in Argentina’s terms of trade) would impact negatively on the country’s GDP growth rate and poverty, particularly in the rural areas.
Fil: Cicowiez, Martin. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Ciencias Económicas. Centro de Estudios Distributivos Laborales y Sociales; Argentina
Fil: Alejo, Osvaldo Javier. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Ciencias Económicas. Centro de Estudios Distributivos Laborales y Sociales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Di Gresia, Luciano. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina
Fil: Olivieri, Sergio. World Bank; Estados Unidos
Fil: Pachecho, Ana. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Ciencias Económicas. Centro de Estudios Distributivos Laborales y Sociales; Argentina
description In this paper we implement a sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium model combined with a microsimulation model to assess (1) the short- and long-run economic impacts of a gradual reduction in the export tax that was introduced during the economic crisis that hit Argentina at the end of 2001, and (2) the impact of a decrease in the world prices of food products, one of the country’s main export products. Our results show that the elimination of the export tax would have different long run effects depending on the fiscal instrument that is used by the government to compensate for the loss in tax revenue. On the one hand, when the government budget is balanced by decreased savings, the average annual growth rate for 2008-2015 is lower than in the baseline scenario. On the other hand, when the government budget is balanced by an increased direct tax rate, there is a long-run positive effect on growth. In all cases, the employment level is lower and the price of food items is higher. Therefore, the poverty headcount ratio increases. As expected, a reduction in the world price of food items (i.e., a worsening in Argentina’s terms of trade) would impact negatively on the country’s GDP growth rate and poverty, particularly in the rural areas.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016-07
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/57401
Cicowiez, Martin; Alejo, Osvaldo Javier; Di Gresia, Luciano; Olivieri, Sergio; Pachecho, Ana; Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGE-Microsimulation Analysis; International Microsimulation Association; International Journal of Microsimulation; 9; 1; 7-2016; 24-54
1747-5864
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/57401
identifier_str_mv Cicowiez, Martin; Alejo, Osvaldo Javier; Di Gresia, Luciano; Olivieri, Sergio; Pachecho, Ana; Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGE-Microsimulation Analysis; International Microsimulation Association; International Journal of Microsimulation; 9; 1; 7-2016; 24-54
1747-5864
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.microsimulation.org/IJM/V9_1/IJM_9_1_2016_Cicowiez.pdf
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv International Microsimulation Association
publisher.none.fl_str_mv International Microsimulation Association
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
_version_ 1842269916425617408
score 13.13397

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