Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodeling approach based in population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics

Autores
Moreno, Eduardo S.; Agostini, Ilaria; Holzmann, Ingrid; Di Bitetti, Mario Santiago; Oklander, Luciana Inés; Kowalewski, Miguel Martin; Beldomenico, Pablo Martín; Goenaga, Silvina; Martínez, Mariela Florencia; Lestani, Eduardo Ariel; Desbiez, Arnaud L. J.; Miller, Philip
Año de publicación
2015
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.
Fil: Moreno, Eduardo S.. Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará. Programa de Pós-Graduação Natureza, Sociedade e Desenvolvimento; Brasil
Fil: Agostini, Ilaria. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cienti­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Nordeste. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazu; Argentina. Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlantico; Argentina
Fil: Holzmann, Ingrid. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cienti­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Nordeste. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazu; Argentina. Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlantico; Argentina
Fil: Di Bitetti, Mario Santiago. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cienti­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Nordeste. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazu; Argentina. Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlantico; Argentina
Fil: Oklander, Luciana Inés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cienti­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Nordeste. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazu; Argentina. Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlantico; Argentina
Fil: Kowalewski, Miguel Martin. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales; Argentina
Fil: Beldomenico, Pablo Martín. Universidad Nacional del Litoral; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Santa Fe. Instituto de Ciencias Veterinarias del Litoral; Argentina
Fil: Goenaga, Silvina. Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Virales Humanas "Dr. Julio I Maiztegui"; Argentina
Fil: Martínez, Mariela Florencia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cienti­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Nordeste. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazu; Argentina. Ministerio de Salud. Instituto Nacional de Medicina Tropical; Argentina
Fil: Lestani, Eduardo Ariel. Ministerio de Salud. Instituto Nacional de Medicina Tropical; Argentina
Fil: Desbiez, Arnaud L. J.. Royal Zoological Society of Scotland; Reino Unido
Fil: Miller, Philip. International Union for Conservation of Nature. Species Survival Commission. Conservation Breeding Specialist Group; Estados Unidos
Materia
Conservation medicine
Wildlife disease
Disease impact
Sensitivity analysis
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/6261
Acceder
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network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodeling approach based in population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamicsMoreno, Eduardo S.Agostini, IlariaHolzmann, IngridDi Bitetti, Mario SantiagoOklander, Luciana InésKowalewski, Miguel MartinBeldomenico, Pablo MartínGoenaga, SilvinaMartínez, Mariela FlorenciaLestani, Eduardo ArielDesbiez, Arnaud L. J.Miller, PhilipConservation medicineWildlife diseaseDisease impactSensitivity analysishttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.Fil: Moreno, Eduardo S.. Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará. Programa de Pós-Graduação Natureza, Sociedade e Desenvolvimento; BrasilFil: Agostini, Ilaria. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cienti­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Nordeste. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazu; Argentina. Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlantico; ArgentinaFil: Holzmann, Ingrid. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cienti­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Nordeste. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazu; Argentina. Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlantico; ArgentinaFil: Di Bitetti, Mario Santiago. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cienti­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Nordeste. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazu; Argentina. Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlantico; ArgentinaFil: Oklander, Luciana Inés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cienti­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Nordeste. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazu; Argentina. Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlantico; ArgentinaFil: Kowalewski, Miguel Martin. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales; ArgentinaFil: Beldomenico, Pablo Martín. Universidad Nacional del Litoral; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Santa Fe. Instituto de Ciencias Veterinarias del Litoral; ArgentinaFil: Goenaga, Silvina. Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Virales Humanas "Dr. Julio I Maiztegui"; ArgentinaFil: Martínez, Mariela Florencia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cienti­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Nordeste. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazu; Argentina. Ministerio de Salud. Instituto Nacional de Medicina Tropical; ArgentinaFil: Lestani, Eduardo Ariel. Ministerio de Salud. Instituto Nacional de Medicina Tropical; ArgentinaFil: Desbiez, Arnaud L. J.. Royal Zoological Society of Scotland; Reino UnidoFil: Miller, Philip. International Union for Conservation of Nature. Species Survival Commission. Conservation Breeding Specialist Group; Estados UnidosFundacao Oswaldo Cruz2015-11info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/6261Moreno, Eduardo S.; Agostini, Ilaria; Holzmann, Ingrid; Di Bitetti, Mario Santiago; Oklander, Luciana Inés; et al.; Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodeling approach based in population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics; Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz; Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; 110; 7; 11-2015; 865-8760074-02761678-8060enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://memorias.ioc.fiocruz.br/issues/past-issues/item/6050-0075_yellow-fever-impact-on-brown-howler-monkeys-alouatta-guariba-clamitans-in-argentina-a-metamodelling-approach-based-on-population-viability-analysis-and-epidemiological-dynamicsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4660615/info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1590/0074-02760150075info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/PMC4660615info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://ref.scielo.org/khcctqinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:36:07Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/6261instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:36:07.385CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodeling approach based in population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics
title Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodeling approach based in population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics
spellingShingle Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodeling approach based in population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics
Moreno, Eduardo S.
Conservation medicine
Wildlife disease
Disease impact
Sensitivity analysis
title_short Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodeling approach based in population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics
title_full Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodeling approach based in population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics
title_fullStr Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodeling approach based in population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics
title_full_unstemmed Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodeling approach based in population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics
title_sort Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodeling approach based in population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Moreno, Eduardo S.
Agostini, Ilaria
Holzmann, Ingrid
Di Bitetti, Mario Santiago
Oklander, Luciana Inés
Kowalewski, Miguel Martin
Beldomenico, Pablo Martín
Goenaga, Silvina
Martínez, Mariela Florencia
Lestani, Eduardo Ariel
Desbiez, Arnaud L. J.
Miller, Philip
author Moreno, Eduardo S.
author_facet Moreno, Eduardo S.
Agostini, Ilaria
Holzmann, Ingrid
Di Bitetti, Mario Santiago
Oklander, Luciana Inés
Kowalewski, Miguel Martin
Beldomenico, Pablo Martín
Goenaga, Silvina
Martínez, Mariela Florencia
Lestani, Eduardo Ariel
Desbiez, Arnaud L. J.
Miller, Philip
author_role author
author2 Agostini, Ilaria
Holzmann, Ingrid
Di Bitetti, Mario Santiago
Oklander, Luciana Inés
Kowalewski, Miguel Martin
Beldomenico, Pablo Martín
Goenaga, Silvina
Martínez, Mariela Florencia
Lestani, Eduardo Ariel
Desbiez, Arnaud L. J.
Miller, Philip
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Conservation medicine
Wildlife disease
Disease impact
Sensitivity analysis
topic Conservation medicine
Wildlife disease
Disease impact
Sensitivity analysis
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.
Fil: Moreno, Eduardo S.. Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará. Programa de Pós-Graduação Natureza, Sociedade e Desenvolvimento; Brasil
Fil: Agostini, Ilaria. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cienti­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Nordeste. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazu; Argentina. Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlantico; Argentina
Fil: Holzmann, Ingrid. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cienti­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Nordeste. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazu; Argentina. Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlantico; Argentina
Fil: Di Bitetti, Mario Santiago. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cienti­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Nordeste. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazu; Argentina. Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlantico; Argentina
Fil: Oklander, Luciana Inés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cienti­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Nordeste. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazu; Argentina. Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlantico; Argentina
Fil: Kowalewski, Miguel Martin. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales; Argentina
Fil: Beldomenico, Pablo Martín. Universidad Nacional del Litoral; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Santa Fe. Instituto de Ciencias Veterinarias del Litoral; Argentina
Fil: Goenaga, Silvina. Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Virales Humanas "Dr. Julio I Maiztegui"; Argentina
Fil: Martínez, Mariela Florencia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cienti­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Nordeste. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical. Instituto de Biologia Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazu; Argentina. Ministerio de Salud. Instituto Nacional de Medicina Tropical; Argentina
Fil: Lestani, Eduardo Ariel. Ministerio de Salud. Instituto Nacional de Medicina Tropical; Argentina
Fil: Desbiez, Arnaud L. J.. Royal Zoological Society of Scotland; Reino Unido
Fil: Miller, Philip. International Union for Conservation of Nature. Species Survival Commission. Conservation Breeding Specialist Group; Estados Unidos
description In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-11
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/6261
Moreno, Eduardo S.; Agostini, Ilaria; Holzmann, Ingrid; Di Bitetti, Mario Santiago; Oklander, Luciana Inés; et al.; Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodeling approach based in population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics; Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz; Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; 110; 7; 11-2015; 865-876
0074-0276
1678-8060
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/6261
identifier_str_mv Moreno, Eduardo S.; Agostini, Ilaria; Holzmann, Ingrid; Di Bitetti, Mario Santiago; Oklander, Luciana Inés; et al.; Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodeling approach based in population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics; Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz; Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; 110; 7; 11-2015; 865-876
0074-0276
1678-8060
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://memorias.ioc.fiocruz.br/issues/past-issues/item/6050-0075_yellow-fever-impact-on-brown-howler-monkeys-alouatta-guariba-clamitans-in-argentina-a-metamodelling-approach-based-on-population-viability-analysis-and-epidemiological-dynamics
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4660615/
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1590/0074-02760150075
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/PMC4660615
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://ref.scielo.org/khcctq
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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