Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb

Autores
Werneck, Fernanda P.; Costa, Gabriel C.; Colli, Guarino R.; Prado, Darien Eros; Sites Jr, Jack W.
Año de publicación
2011
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Aim To investigate the potential distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests during the Quaternary climatic fluctuations; to reassess the formerly proposed Pleistocenic arc hypothesis (PAH); and to identify historically stable and unstable areas of SDTF distributions in the light of palaeodistribution modelling. Location SDTFs in lowland cis-Andean eastern-central South America. Methods We first developed georeferenced maps depicting the current distributional extent of SDTFs under two distinct definitions (narrow and broad).We then generated occurrence datasets, which were used with current and past bioclimatic variables to predict SDTF occurrence by implementing the maximum entropy machine-learning algorithm. We obtained historical stability maps by overlapping the presence/absence projections of each of three climatic scenarios [current, 6 kyr bp during the Holocene, and 21 kyr bp during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)]. Finally, we checked the consistencies of the model prediction with qualitative comparisons of vegetation types inferred from available fossil pollen records. Results The present-day SDTF distribution is disjunct, but we provide evidence that it was even more disjunct during the LGM. Reconstructions support a progressive southward and eastward expansion of SDTFs on a continental scale since the LGM. No significant expansion of SDTFs into the Amazon Basin was detected. Areas of presumed long-term stability are identified and confirmed (the three nuclear regions, Caatinga, Misiones and Piedmont, plus the Chiquitano region), and these possibly acted as current and historical refugial areas. Main conclusions The LGM climate was probably too dry and cold to support large tracts of SDTF, which were restricted to climatically favourable areas relative to the present day (in contrast with the PAH, as it was originally conceived). Expansions of SDTFs are proposed to have occupied the southern portion of Caatinga nucleus more recently during the early–middle Holocene transition. We propose an alternative scenario amenable to further testing of an earlier SDTF expansion (either at the Lower Pleistocene or the Tertiary), followed by fragmentation in the LGM and secondary expansion in the Holocene. The stability maps were used to generate specific genetic predictions at both continental and regional scales (stable areas are expected to have higher genetic diversity and endemism levels than adjacent unstable areas) that can be used to direct field sampling to cover both stable (predicted refugia) and unstable (recently colonized) areas. Lastly, we discuss the possibility that SDTFs may experience future expansion under changing climate scenarios and that both stable and unstable areas should be prioritized by conservation initiatives.
Fil: Werneck, Fernanda P.. Brigham Young University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Costa, Gabriel C.. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; Brasil
Fil: Colli, Guarino R.. Universidade do Brasília; Brasil
Fil: Prado, Darien Eros. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Departamento de Biología. Cátedra de Botánica Morfológica y Sistemática Agronómica; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina
Fil: Sites Jr, Jack W.. Brigham Young University; Estados Unidos
Materia
Caatinga
Genetic predictions
Habitat stability
Historical refugia
Holocene
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/268289

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spelling Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegebWerneck, Fernanda P.Costa, Gabriel C.Colli, Guarino R.Prado, Darien ErosSites Jr, Jack W.CaatingaGenetic predictionsHabitat stabilityHistorical refugiaHolocenehttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Aim To investigate the potential distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests during the Quaternary climatic fluctuations; to reassess the formerly proposed Pleistocenic arc hypothesis (PAH); and to identify historically stable and unstable areas of SDTF distributions in the light of palaeodistribution modelling. Location SDTFs in lowland cis-Andean eastern-central South America. Methods We first developed georeferenced maps depicting the current distributional extent of SDTFs under two distinct definitions (narrow and broad).We then generated occurrence datasets, which were used with current and past bioclimatic variables to predict SDTF occurrence by implementing the maximum entropy machine-learning algorithm. We obtained historical stability maps by overlapping the presence/absence projections of each of three climatic scenarios [current, 6 kyr bp during the Holocene, and 21 kyr bp during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)]. Finally, we checked the consistencies of the model prediction with qualitative comparisons of vegetation types inferred from available fossil pollen records. Results The present-day SDTF distribution is disjunct, but we provide evidence that it was even more disjunct during the LGM. Reconstructions support a progressive southward and eastward expansion of SDTFs on a continental scale since the LGM. No significant expansion of SDTFs into the Amazon Basin was detected. Areas of presumed long-term stability are identified and confirmed (the three nuclear regions, Caatinga, Misiones and Piedmont, plus the Chiquitano region), and these possibly acted as current and historical refugial areas. Main conclusions The LGM climate was probably too dry and cold to support large tracts of SDTF, which were restricted to climatically favourable areas relative to the present day (in contrast with the PAH, as it was originally conceived). Expansions of SDTFs are proposed to have occupied the southern portion of Caatinga nucleus more recently during the early–middle Holocene transition. We propose an alternative scenario amenable to further testing of an earlier SDTF expansion (either at the Lower Pleistocene or the Tertiary), followed by fragmentation in the LGM and secondary expansion in the Holocene. The stability maps were used to generate specific genetic predictions at both continental and regional scales (stable areas are expected to have higher genetic diversity and endemism levels than adjacent unstable areas) that can be used to direct field sampling to cover both stable (predicted refugia) and unstable (recently colonized) areas. Lastly, we discuss the possibility that SDTFs may experience future expansion under changing climate scenarios and that both stable and unstable areas should be prioritized by conservation initiatives.Fil: Werneck, Fernanda P.. Brigham Young University; Estados UnidosFil: Costa, Gabriel C.. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; BrasilFil: Colli, Guarino R.. Universidade do Brasília; BrasilFil: Prado, Darien Eros. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Departamento de Biología. Cátedra de Botánica Morfológica y Sistemática Agronómica; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; ArgentinaFil: Sites Jr, Jack W.. Brigham Young University; Estados UnidosWiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc2011-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/268289Werneck, Fernanda P.; Costa, Gabriel C.; Colli, Guarino R.; Prado, Darien Eros; Sites Jr, Jack W.; Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb; Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc; Global Ecology and Biogeography; 20; 2; 3-2011; 272-2881466-822XCONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00596.xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00596.xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:41:48Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/268289instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:41:49.126CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb
title Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb
spellingShingle Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb
Werneck, Fernanda P.
Caatinga
Genetic predictions
Habitat stability
Historical refugia
Holocene
title_short Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb
title_full Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb
title_fullStr Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb
title_full_unstemmed Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb
title_sort Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Werneck, Fernanda P.
Costa, Gabriel C.
Colli, Guarino R.
Prado, Darien Eros
Sites Jr, Jack W.
author Werneck, Fernanda P.
author_facet Werneck, Fernanda P.
Costa, Gabriel C.
Colli, Guarino R.
Prado, Darien Eros
Sites Jr, Jack W.
author_role author
author2 Costa, Gabriel C.
Colli, Guarino R.
Prado, Darien Eros
Sites Jr, Jack W.
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Caatinga
Genetic predictions
Habitat stability
Historical refugia
Holocene
topic Caatinga
Genetic predictions
Habitat stability
Historical refugia
Holocene
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Aim To investigate the potential distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests during the Quaternary climatic fluctuations; to reassess the formerly proposed Pleistocenic arc hypothesis (PAH); and to identify historically stable and unstable areas of SDTF distributions in the light of palaeodistribution modelling. Location SDTFs in lowland cis-Andean eastern-central South America. Methods We first developed georeferenced maps depicting the current distributional extent of SDTFs under two distinct definitions (narrow and broad).We then generated occurrence datasets, which were used with current and past bioclimatic variables to predict SDTF occurrence by implementing the maximum entropy machine-learning algorithm. We obtained historical stability maps by overlapping the presence/absence projections of each of three climatic scenarios [current, 6 kyr bp during the Holocene, and 21 kyr bp during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)]. Finally, we checked the consistencies of the model prediction with qualitative comparisons of vegetation types inferred from available fossil pollen records. Results The present-day SDTF distribution is disjunct, but we provide evidence that it was even more disjunct during the LGM. Reconstructions support a progressive southward and eastward expansion of SDTFs on a continental scale since the LGM. No significant expansion of SDTFs into the Amazon Basin was detected. Areas of presumed long-term stability are identified and confirmed (the three nuclear regions, Caatinga, Misiones and Piedmont, plus the Chiquitano region), and these possibly acted as current and historical refugial areas. Main conclusions The LGM climate was probably too dry and cold to support large tracts of SDTF, which were restricted to climatically favourable areas relative to the present day (in contrast with the PAH, as it was originally conceived). Expansions of SDTFs are proposed to have occupied the southern portion of Caatinga nucleus more recently during the early–middle Holocene transition. We propose an alternative scenario amenable to further testing of an earlier SDTF expansion (either at the Lower Pleistocene or the Tertiary), followed by fragmentation in the LGM and secondary expansion in the Holocene. The stability maps were used to generate specific genetic predictions at both continental and regional scales (stable areas are expected to have higher genetic diversity and endemism levels than adjacent unstable areas) that can be used to direct field sampling to cover both stable (predicted refugia) and unstable (recently colonized) areas. Lastly, we discuss the possibility that SDTFs may experience future expansion under changing climate scenarios and that both stable and unstable areas should be prioritized by conservation initiatives.
Fil: Werneck, Fernanda P.. Brigham Young University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Costa, Gabriel C.. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; Brasil
Fil: Colli, Guarino R.. Universidade do Brasília; Brasil
Fil: Prado, Darien Eros. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Departamento de Biología. Cátedra de Botánica Morfológica y Sistemática Agronómica; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina
Fil: Sites Jr, Jack W.. Brigham Young University; Estados Unidos
description Aim To investigate the potential distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests during the Quaternary climatic fluctuations; to reassess the formerly proposed Pleistocenic arc hypothesis (PAH); and to identify historically stable and unstable areas of SDTF distributions in the light of palaeodistribution modelling. Location SDTFs in lowland cis-Andean eastern-central South America. Methods We first developed georeferenced maps depicting the current distributional extent of SDTFs under two distinct definitions (narrow and broad).We then generated occurrence datasets, which were used with current and past bioclimatic variables to predict SDTF occurrence by implementing the maximum entropy machine-learning algorithm. We obtained historical stability maps by overlapping the presence/absence projections of each of three climatic scenarios [current, 6 kyr bp during the Holocene, and 21 kyr bp during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)]. Finally, we checked the consistencies of the model prediction with qualitative comparisons of vegetation types inferred from available fossil pollen records. Results The present-day SDTF distribution is disjunct, but we provide evidence that it was even more disjunct during the LGM. Reconstructions support a progressive southward and eastward expansion of SDTFs on a continental scale since the LGM. No significant expansion of SDTFs into the Amazon Basin was detected. Areas of presumed long-term stability are identified and confirmed (the three nuclear regions, Caatinga, Misiones and Piedmont, plus the Chiquitano region), and these possibly acted as current and historical refugial areas. Main conclusions The LGM climate was probably too dry and cold to support large tracts of SDTF, which were restricted to climatically favourable areas relative to the present day (in contrast with the PAH, as it was originally conceived). Expansions of SDTFs are proposed to have occupied the southern portion of Caatinga nucleus more recently during the early–middle Holocene transition. We propose an alternative scenario amenable to further testing of an earlier SDTF expansion (either at the Lower Pleistocene or the Tertiary), followed by fragmentation in the LGM and secondary expansion in the Holocene. The stability maps were used to generate specific genetic predictions at both continental and regional scales (stable areas are expected to have higher genetic diversity and endemism levels than adjacent unstable areas) that can be used to direct field sampling to cover both stable (predicted refugia) and unstable (recently colonized) areas. Lastly, we discuss the possibility that SDTFs may experience future expansion under changing climate scenarios and that both stable and unstable areas should be prioritized by conservation initiatives.
publishDate 2011
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2011-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/268289
Werneck, Fernanda P.; Costa, Gabriel C.; Colli, Guarino R.; Prado, Darien Eros; Sites Jr, Jack W.; Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb; Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc; Global Ecology and Biogeography; 20; 2; 3-2011; 272-288
1466-822X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/268289
identifier_str_mv Werneck, Fernanda P.; Costa, Gabriel C.; Colli, Guarino R.; Prado, Darien Eros; Sites Jr, Jack W.; Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb; Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc; Global Ecology and Biogeography; 20; 2; 3-2011; 272-288
1466-822X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00596.x
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00596.x
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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