Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb
- Autores
- Werneck, Fernanda P.; Costa, Gabriel C.; Colli, Guarino R.; Prado, Darien Eros; Sites Jr, Jack W.
- Año de publicación
- 2011
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Aim To investigate the potential distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests during the Quaternary climatic fluctuations; to reassess the formerly proposed Pleistocenic arc hypothesis (PAH); and to identify historically stable and unstable areas of SDTF distributions in the light of palaeodistribution modelling. Location SDTFs in lowland cis-Andean eastern-central South America. Methods We first developed georeferenced maps depicting the current distributional extent of SDTFs under two distinct definitions (narrow and broad).We then generated occurrence datasets, which were used with current and past bioclimatic variables to predict SDTF occurrence by implementing the maximum entropy machine-learning algorithm. We obtained historical stability maps by overlapping the presence/absence projections of each of three climatic scenarios [current, 6 kyr bp during the Holocene, and 21 kyr bp during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)]. Finally, we checked the consistencies of the model prediction with qualitative comparisons of vegetation types inferred from available fossil pollen records. Results The present-day SDTF distribution is disjunct, but we provide evidence that it was even more disjunct during the LGM. Reconstructions support a progressive southward and eastward expansion of SDTFs on a continental scale since the LGM. No significant expansion of SDTFs into the Amazon Basin was detected. Areas of presumed long-term stability are identified and confirmed (the three nuclear regions, Caatinga, Misiones and Piedmont, plus the Chiquitano region), and these possibly acted as current and historical refugial areas. Main conclusions The LGM climate was probably too dry and cold to support large tracts of SDTF, which were restricted to climatically favourable areas relative to the present day (in contrast with the PAH, as it was originally conceived). Expansions of SDTFs are proposed to have occupied the southern portion of Caatinga nucleus more recently during the early–middle Holocene transition. We propose an alternative scenario amenable to further testing of an earlier SDTF expansion (either at the Lower Pleistocene or the Tertiary), followed by fragmentation in the LGM and secondary expansion in the Holocene. The stability maps were used to generate specific genetic predictions at both continental and regional scales (stable areas are expected to have higher genetic diversity and endemism levels than adjacent unstable areas) that can be used to direct field sampling to cover both stable (predicted refugia) and unstable (recently colonized) areas. Lastly, we discuss the possibility that SDTFs may experience future expansion under changing climate scenarios and that both stable and unstable areas should be prioritized by conservation initiatives.
Fil: Werneck, Fernanda P.. Brigham Young University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Costa, Gabriel C.. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; Brasil
Fil: Colli, Guarino R.. Universidade do Brasília; Brasil
Fil: Prado, Darien Eros. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Departamento de Biología. Cátedra de Botánica Morfológica y Sistemática Agronómica; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina
Fil: Sites Jr, Jack W.. Brigham Young University; Estados Unidos - Materia
-
Caatinga
Genetic predictions
Habitat stability
Historical refugia
Holocene - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/268289
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Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegebWerneck, Fernanda P.Costa, Gabriel C.Colli, Guarino R.Prado, Darien ErosSites Jr, Jack W.CaatingaGenetic predictionsHabitat stabilityHistorical refugiaHolocenehttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Aim To investigate the potential distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests during the Quaternary climatic fluctuations; to reassess the formerly proposed Pleistocenic arc hypothesis (PAH); and to identify historically stable and unstable areas of SDTF distributions in the light of palaeodistribution modelling. Location SDTFs in lowland cis-Andean eastern-central South America. Methods We first developed georeferenced maps depicting the current distributional extent of SDTFs under two distinct definitions (narrow and broad).We then generated occurrence datasets, which were used with current and past bioclimatic variables to predict SDTF occurrence by implementing the maximum entropy machine-learning algorithm. We obtained historical stability maps by overlapping the presence/absence projections of each of three climatic scenarios [current, 6 kyr bp during the Holocene, and 21 kyr bp during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)]. Finally, we checked the consistencies of the model prediction with qualitative comparisons of vegetation types inferred from available fossil pollen records. Results The present-day SDTF distribution is disjunct, but we provide evidence that it was even more disjunct during the LGM. Reconstructions support a progressive southward and eastward expansion of SDTFs on a continental scale since the LGM. No significant expansion of SDTFs into the Amazon Basin was detected. Areas of presumed long-term stability are identified and confirmed (the three nuclear regions, Caatinga, Misiones and Piedmont, plus the Chiquitano region), and these possibly acted as current and historical refugial areas. Main conclusions The LGM climate was probably too dry and cold to support large tracts of SDTF, which were restricted to climatically favourable areas relative to the present day (in contrast with the PAH, as it was originally conceived). Expansions of SDTFs are proposed to have occupied the southern portion of Caatinga nucleus more recently during the early–middle Holocene transition. We propose an alternative scenario amenable to further testing of an earlier SDTF expansion (either at the Lower Pleistocene or the Tertiary), followed by fragmentation in the LGM and secondary expansion in the Holocene. The stability maps were used to generate specific genetic predictions at both continental and regional scales (stable areas are expected to have higher genetic diversity and endemism levels than adjacent unstable areas) that can be used to direct field sampling to cover both stable (predicted refugia) and unstable (recently colonized) areas. Lastly, we discuss the possibility that SDTFs may experience future expansion under changing climate scenarios and that both stable and unstable areas should be prioritized by conservation initiatives.Fil: Werneck, Fernanda P.. Brigham Young University; Estados UnidosFil: Costa, Gabriel C.. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; BrasilFil: Colli, Guarino R.. Universidade do Brasília; BrasilFil: Prado, Darien Eros. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Departamento de Biología. Cátedra de Botánica Morfológica y Sistemática Agronómica; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; ArgentinaFil: Sites Jr, Jack W.. Brigham Young University; Estados UnidosWiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc2011-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/268289Werneck, Fernanda P.; Costa, Gabriel C.; Colli, Guarino R.; Prado, Darien Eros; Sites Jr, Jack W.; Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb; Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc; Global Ecology and Biogeography; 20; 2; 3-2011; 272-2881466-822XCONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00596.xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00596.xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:41:48Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/268289instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:41:49.126CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb |
title |
Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb |
spellingShingle |
Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb Werneck, Fernanda P. Caatinga Genetic predictions Habitat stability Historical refugia Holocene |
title_short |
Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb |
title_full |
Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb |
title_fullStr |
Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb |
title_full_unstemmed |
Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb |
title_sort |
Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Werneck, Fernanda P. Costa, Gabriel C. Colli, Guarino R. Prado, Darien Eros Sites Jr, Jack W. |
author |
Werneck, Fernanda P. |
author_facet |
Werneck, Fernanda P. Costa, Gabriel C. Colli, Guarino R. Prado, Darien Eros Sites Jr, Jack W. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Costa, Gabriel C. Colli, Guarino R. Prado, Darien Eros Sites Jr, Jack W. |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Caatinga Genetic predictions Habitat stability Historical refugia Holocene |
topic |
Caatinga Genetic predictions Habitat stability Historical refugia Holocene |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Aim To investigate the potential distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests during the Quaternary climatic fluctuations; to reassess the formerly proposed Pleistocenic arc hypothesis (PAH); and to identify historically stable and unstable areas of SDTF distributions in the light of palaeodistribution modelling. Location SDTFs in lowland cis-Andean eastern-central South America. Methods We first developed georeferenced maps depicting the current distributional extent of SDTFs under two distinct definitions (narrow and broad).We then generated occurrence datasets, which were used with current and past bioclimatic variables to predict SDTF occurrence by implementing the maximum entropy machine-learning algorithm. We obtained historical stability maps by overlapping the presence/absence projections of each of three climatic scenarios [current, 6 kyr bp during the Holocene, and 21 kyr bp during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)]. Finally, we checked the consistencies of the model prediction with qualitative comparisons of vegetation types inferred from available fossil pollen records. Results The present-day SDTF distribution is disjunct, but we provide evidence that it was even more disjunct during the LGM. Reconstructions support a progressive southward and eastward expansion of SDTFs on a continental scale since the LGM. No significant expansion of SDTFs into the Amazon Basin was detected. Areas of presumed long-term stability are identified and confirmed (the three nuclear regions, Caatinga, Misiones and Piedmont, plus the Chiquitano region), and these possibly acted as current and historical refugial areas. Main conclusions The LGM climate was probably too dry and cold to support large tracts of SDTF, which were restricted to climatically favourable areas relative to the present day (in contrast with the PAH, as it was originally conceived). Expansions of SDTFs are proposed to have occupied the southern portion of Caatinga nucleus more recently during the early–middle Holocene transition. We propose an alternative scenario amenable to further testing of an earlier SDTF expansion (either at the Lower Pleistocene or the Tertiary), followed by fragmentation in the LGM and secondary expansion in the Holocene. The stability maps were used to generate specific genetic predictions at both continental and regional scales (stable areas are expected to have higher genetic diversity and endemism levels than adjacent unstable areas) that can be used to direct field sampling to cover both stable (predicted refugia) and unstable (recently colonized) areas. Lastly, we discuss the possibility that SDTFs may experience future expansion under changing climate scenarios and that both stable and unstable areas should be prioritized by conservation initiatives. Fil: Werneck, Fernanda P.. Brigham Young University; Estados Unidos Fil: Costa, Gabriel C.. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; Brasil Fil: Colli, Guarino R.. Universidade do Brasília; Brasil Fil: Prado, Darien Eros. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Departamento de Biología. Cátedra de Botánica Morfológica y Sistemática Agronómica; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina Fil: Sites Jr, Jack W.. Brigham Young University; Estados Unidos |
description |
Aim To investigate the potential distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests during the Quaternary climatic fluctuations; to reassess the formerly proposed Pleistocenic arc hypothesis (PAH); and to identify historically stable and unstable areas of SDTF distributions in the light of palaeodistribution modelling. Location SDTFs in lowland cis-Andean eastern-central South America. Methods We first developed georeferenced maps depicting the current distributional extent of SDTFs under two distinct definitions (narrow and broad).We then generated occurrence datasets, which were used with current and past bioclimatic variables to predict SDTF occurrence by implementing the maximum entropy machine-learning algorithm. We obtained historical stability maps by overlapping the presence/absence projections of each of three climatic scenarios [current, 6 kyr bp during the Holocene, and 21 kyr bp during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)]. Finally, we checked the consistencies of the model prediction with qualitative comparisons of vegetation types inferred from available fossil pollen records. Results The present-day SDTF distribution is disjunct, but we provide evidence that it was even more disjunct during the LGM. Reconstructions support a progressive southward and eastward expansion of SDTFs on a continental scale since the LGM. No significant expansion of SDTFs into the Amazon Basin was detected. Areas of presumed long-term stability are identified and confirmed (the three nuclear regions, Caatinga, Misiones and Piedmont, plus the Chiquitano region), and these possibly acted as current and historical refugial areas. Main conclusions The LGM climate was probably too dry and cold to support large tracts of SDTF, which were restricted to climatically favourable areas relative to the present day (in contrast with the PAH, as it was originally conceived). Expansions of SDTFs are proposed to have occupied the southern portion of Caatinga nucleus more recently during the early–middle Holocene transition. We propose an alternative scenario amenable to further testing of an earlier SDTF expansion (either at the Lower Pleistocene or the Tertiary), followed by fragmentation in the LGM and secondary expansion in the Holocene. The stability maps were used to generate specific genetic predictions at both continental and regional scales (stable areas are expected to have higher genetic diversity and endemism levels than adjacent unstable areas) that can be used to direct field sampling to cover both stable (predicted refugia) and unstable (recently colonized) areas. Lastly, we discuss the possibility that SDTFs may experience future expansion under changing climate scenarios and that both stable and unstable areas should be prioritized by conservation initiatives. |
publishDate |
2011 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2011-03 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/268289 Werneck, Fernanda P.; Costa, Gabriel C.; Colli, Guarino R.; Prado, Darien Eros; Sites Jr, Jack W.; Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb; Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc; Global Ecology and Biogeography; 20; 2; 3-2011; 272-288 1466-822X CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/268289 |
identifier_str_mv |
Werneck, Fernanda P.; Costa, Gabriel C.; Colli, Guarino R.; Prado, Darien Eros; Sites Jr, Jack W.; Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb; Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc; Global Ecology and Biogeography; 20; 2; 3-2011; 272-288 1466-822X CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00596.x info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00596.x |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
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Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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13.070432 |