Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: A tree-ring-based reconstruction

Autores
Morales, Mariano Santos; Carilla, Julieta; Grau, Hector Ricardo; Villalba, Ricardo
Año de publicación
2015
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Size fluctuations in endorheic lakes in northwestern Argentina (NWA) and southwestern Bolivia (SWB) are very sensitive to basin hydrological balances, and consequently, very vulnerable to deleterious effects from climatic changes. The management of these water resources and their biodiversity requires a comprehensive knowledge of their natural variability over multiple timescales. In this study, we present a multi-century reconstruction of past lake-area fluctuations in NWA and SWB. The evidence used to develop and validate this reconstruction includes satellite images and a century-long tree-ring record from P. tarapacana. Inter-annual fluctuations in lake area of nine lakes were quantified based on Landsat satellite images over the period 1975 to 2009. A regional P. tarapacana tree-ring chronology, composite from two sampling sites, was used as predictors in a regression model to reconstruct the mean annual (January-December) lake area from the nine lakes. The reconstruction model captures 62 % of the total variance in lake-area fluctuations and shows adequate levels of cross-validation. This high-resolution reconstruction covers the past 601 years and characterizes the occurrence of annual to multi-decadal lake area fluctuations and its main oscillation modes of variability. Our reconstruction points out that the late 20th century decrease in lake area was exceptional over the period 1407-2007; a persistent negative trend in lake area is clear in the reconstruction and consistent with glacier retreat and other climate proxies from the Altiplano and the tropical Andes. Since the mid 1970s, the Vilama-Coruto lake system recorded an accelerated decrease in area consistent with an increasing recurrence of extremely small lake-area events. Throughout the 601 years, the reconstruction provides valuable information about spatial and temporal stabilities of the relationships between changes in lake area, ENSO, and PDO, highlighting the Pacific influence over most modes of lake area variability. Global and regional climate models for the Altiplano project a marked reduction in precipitation to the end of the 21st century, exacerbating presently dry conditions. These results provide a baseline for the historical range of variability in lake fluctuations and thus should be considered for the management of biodiversity and water resources in the Central Andes during the next decades.
Fil: Morales, Mariano Santos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Carilla, Julieta. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina
Fil: Grau, Hector Ricardo. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina
Fil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
Materia
climate change
lake level
polylepis
dendrochronology
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/81185
Acceder
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network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: A tree-ring-based reconstructionMorales, Mariano SantosCarilla, JulietaGrau, Hector RicardoVillalba, Ricardoclimate changelake levelpolylepisdendrochronologyhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Size fluctuations in endorheic lakes in northwestern Argentina (NWA) and southwestern Bolivia (SWB) are very sensitive to basin hydrological balances, and consequently, very vulnerable to deleterious effects from climatic changes. The management of these water resources and their biodiversity requires a comprehensive knowledge of their natural variability over multiple timescales. In this study, we present a multi-century reconstruction of past lake-area fluctuations in NWA and SWB. The evidence used to develop and validate this reconstruction includes satellite images and a century-long tree-ring record from P. tarapacana. Inter-annual fluctuations in lake area of nine lakes were quantified based on Landsat satellite images over the period 1975 to 2009. A regional P. tarapacana tree-ring chronology, composite from two sampling sites, was used as predictors in a regression model to reconstruct the mean annual (January-December) lake area from the nine lakes. The reconstruction model captures 62 % of the total variance in lake-area fluctuations and shows adequate levels of cross-validation. This high-resolution reconstruction covers the past 601 years and characterizes the occurrence of annual to multi-decadal lake area fluctuations and its main oscillation modes of variability. Our reconstruction points out that the late 20th century decrease in lake area was exceptional over the period 1407-2007; a persistent negative trend in lake area is clear in the reconstruction and consistent with glacier retreat and other climate proxies from the Altiplano and the tropical Andes. Since the mid 1970s, the Vilama-Coruto lake system recorded an accelerated decrease in area consistent with an increasing recurrence of extremely small lake-area events. Throughout the 601 years, the reconstruction provides valuable information about spatial and temporal stabilities of the relationships between changes in lake area, ENSO, and PDO, highlighting the Pacific influence over most modes of lake area variability. Global and regional climate models for the Altiplano project a marked reduction in precipitation to the end of the 21st century, exacerbating presently dry conditions. These results provide a baseline for the historical range of variability in lake fluctuations and thus should be considered for the management of biodiversity and water resources in the Central Andes during the next decades.Fil: Morales, Mariano Santos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Carilla, Julieta. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Grau, Hector Ricardo. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaCopernicus Publications2015-09-15info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/81185Morales, Mariano Santos; Carilla, Julieta; Grau, Hector Ricardo; Villalba, Ricardo; Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: A tree-ring-based reconstruction; Copernicus Publications; Climate Of The Past; 11; 9; 15-9-2015; 1139-11521814-93241814-9332CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.clim-past.net/11/1139/2015/info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T10:05:11Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/81185instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 10:05:11.308CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: A tree-ring-based reconstruction
title Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: A tree-ring-based reconstruction
spellingShingle Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: A tree-ring-based reconstruction
Morales, Mariano Santos
climate change
lake level
polylepis
dendrochronology
title_short Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: A tree-ring-based reconstruction
title_full Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: A tree-ring-based reconstruction
title_fullStr Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: A tree-ring-based reconstruction
title_full_unstemmed Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: A tree-ring-based reconstruction
title_sort Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: A tree-ring-based reconstruction
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Morales, Mariano Santos
Carilla, Julieta
Grau, Hector Ricardo
Villalba, Ricardo
author Morales, Mariano Santos
author_facet Morales, Mariano Santos
Carilla, Julieta
Grau, Hector Ricardo
Villalba, Ricardo
author_role author
author2 Carilla, Julieta
Grau, Hector Ricardo
Villalba, Ricardo
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv climate change
lake level
polylepis
dendrochronology
topic climate change
lake level
polylepis
dendrochronology
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Size fluctuations in endorheic lakes in northwestern Argentina (NWA) and southwestern Bolivia (SWB) are very sensitive to basin hydrological balances, and consequently, very vulnerable to deleterious effects from climatic changes. The management of these water resources and their biodiversity requires a comprehensive knowledge of their natural variability over multiple timescales. In this study, we present a multi-century reconstruction of past lake-area fluctuations in NWA and SWB. The evidence used to develop and validate this reconstruction includes satellite images and a century-long tree-ring record from P. tarapacana. Inter-annual fluctuations in lake area of nine lakes were quantified based on Landsat satellite images over the period 1975 to 2009. A regional P. tarapacana tree-ring chronology, composite from two sampling sites, was used as predictors in a regression model to reconstruct the mean annual (January-December) lake area from the nine lakes. The reconstruction model captures 62 % of the total variance in lake-area fluctuations and shows adequate levels of cross-validation. This high-resolution reconstruction covers the past 601 years and characterizes the occurrence of annual to multi-decadal lake area fluctuations and its main oscillation modes of variability. Our reconstruction points out that the late 20th century decrease in lake area was exceptional over the period 1407-2007; a persistent negative trend in lake area is clear in the reconstruction and consistent with glacier retreat and other climate proxies from the Altiplano and the tropical Andes. Since the mid 1970s, the Vilama-Coruto lake system recorded an accelerated decrease in area consistent with an increasing recurrence of extremely small lake-area events. Throughout the 601 years, the reconstruction provides valuable information about spatial and temporal stabilities of the relationships between changes in lake area, ENSO, and PDO, highlighting the Pacific influence over most modes of lake area variability. Global and regional climate models for the Altiplano project a marked reduction in precipitation to the end of the 21st century, exacerbating presently dry conditions. These results provide a baseline for the historical range of variability in lake fluctuations and thus should be considered for the management of biodiversity and water resources in the Central Andes during the next decades.
Fil: Morales, Mariano Santos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Carilla, Julieta. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina
Fil: Grau, Hector Ricardo. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina
Fil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
description Size fluctuations in endorheic lakes in northwestern Argentina (NWA) and southwestern Bolivia (SWB) are very sensitive to basin hydrological balances, and consequently, very vulnerable to deleterious effects from climatic changes. The management of these water resources and their biodiversity requires a comprehensive knowledge of their natural variability over multiple timescales. In this study, we present a multi-century reconstruction of past lake-area fluctuations in NWA and SWB. The evidence used to develop and validate this reconstruction includes satellite images and a century-long tree-ring record from P. tarapacana. Inter-annual fluctuations in lake area of nine lakes were quantified based on Landsat satellite images over the period 1975 to 2009. A regional P. tarapacana tree-ring chronology, composite from two sampling sites, was used as predictors in a regression model to reconstruct the mean annual (January-December) lake area from the nine lakes. The reconstruction model captures 62 % of the total variance in lake-area fluctuations and shows adequate levels of cross-validation. This high-resolution reconstruction covers the past 601 years and characterizes the occurrence of annual to multi-decadal lake area fluctuations and its main oscillation modes of variability. Our reconstruction points out that the late 20th century decrease in lake area was exceptional over the period 1407-2007; a persistent negative trend in lake area is clear in the reconstruction and consistent with glacier retreat and other climate proxies from the Altiplano and the tropical Andes. Since the mid 1970s, the Vilama-Coruto lake system recorded an accelerated decrease in area consistent with an increasing recurrence of extremely small lake-area events. Throughout the 601 years, the reconstruction provides valuable information about spatial and temporal stabilities of the relationships between changes in lake area, ENSO, and PDO, highlighting the Pacific influence over most modes of lake area variability. Global and regional climate models for the Altiplano project a marked reduction in precipitation to the end of the 21st century, exacerbating presently dry conditions. These results provide a baseline for the historical range of variability in lake fluctuations and thus should be considered for the management of biodiversity and water resources in the Central Andes during the next decades.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-09-15
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/81185
Morales, Mariano Santos; Carilla, Julieta; Grau, Hector Ricardo; Villalba, Ricardo; Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: A tree-ring-based reconstruction; Copernicus Publications; Climate Of The Past; 11; 9; 15-9-2015; 1139-1152
1814-9324
1814-9332
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/81185
identifier_str_mv Morales, Mariano Santos; Carilla, Julieta; Grau, Hector Ricardo; Villalba, Ricardo; Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: A tree-ring-based reconstruction; Copernicus Publications; Climate Of The Past; 11; 9; 15-9-2015; 1139-1152
1814-9324
1814-9332
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.clim-past.net/11/1139/2015/
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Copernicus Publications
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Copernicus Publications
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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