Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009
- Autores
- Berlin, Erica; Coello Peralta, Roberto D.; Cedeño Reyes, Pedro; Valle Mieles, Elsa M.; Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo; Zaidenberg, Mario O.; Madariaga, Horacio Leonardo; Navarro, Juan C.; Dantur Juri, Maria Julia; Castro, Marcia C.
- Año de publicación
- 2025
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- In the Americas, the number of confirmed malaria cases decreased by 65.4% between 2000 and 2023, and malaria elimination is now in sight for many countries. Argentina is currently free of autochthonous malaria transmission. Until 2011, cases of malaria were concentrated in Northwestern Argentina, near the border with Bolivia, a country that continues to have malaria transmission. The Orán department (Salta province, Northwestern Argentina) had particularly high transmission near a main road that is a pathway for migration from Bolivia. The purpose of this study was to identify which factors best explain the extent and timing of changes in the proportion of malaria cases in this area that were locally transmitted versus acquired in another country. Combining information from routinely collected case investigations, epidemiological surveillance data, and satellite imagery, we used a logistic model and a multi-level model of change to identify how demographic and place-level variables influence the proportion of malaria cases that were imported over time. The findings showed that the proportion of cases that were imported varied significantly over time, with a clear trend from predominantly autochthonous cases at the beginning of the study in 1977 (94.52%) to a majority of imported cases in 1992 (53.33%), a pattern that continued and intensified, reaching 76% imported cases by the end of the series in 2009. Nationality and place of work were key demographic factors influencing this shift. In particular, there was a change in transmission patterns after a cross-border intervention was launched in 1996. As Argentina has obtained certification of malaria elimination, these results may inform focal strategies for preventing re-introduction.
Fil: Berlin, Erica. Harvard University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Coello Peralta, Roberto D.. Universidad de Guayaquil; Ecuador
Fil: Cedeño Reyes, Pedro. Universidad de Guayaquil; Ecuador
Fil: Valle Mieles, Elsa M.. Universidad de Guayaquil; Ecuador
Fil: Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - Tucumán. Unidad Ejecutora Lillo; Argentina
Fil: Zaidenberg, Mario O.. Ministerio de Salud. Dirección de Enfermedades Transmisibles por Vectores; Argentina
Fil: Madariaga, Horacio Leonardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Filosofía y Letras. Instituto de Estudios Geográficos; Argentina
Fil: Navarro, Juan C.. Universidad Internacional SEK; Ecuador
Fil: Dantur Juri, Maria Julia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - Tucumán. Unidad Ejecutora Lillo; Argentina. Fundacion Miguel Lillo. Direccion de Biologia Integrativa. Instituto de Genetica y Microbiologia;
Fil: Castro, Marcia C.. Harvard University; Estados Unidos - Materia
-
Cross-border malaria
Epidemiological surveillance
Human migration
Malaria - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/265148
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009Berlin, EricaCoello Peralta, Roberto D.Cedeño Reyes, PedroValle Mieles, Elsa M.Duque Padilla, Paul LeonardoZaidenberg, Mario O.Madariaga, Horacio LeonardoNavarro, Juan C.Dantur Juri, Maria JuliaCastro, Marcia C.Cross-border malariaEpidemiological surveillanceHuman migrationMalariahttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1In the Americas, the number of confirmed malaria cases decreased by 65.4% between 2000 and 2023, and malaria elimination is now in sight for many countries. Argentina is currently free of autochthonous malaria transmission. Until 2011, cases of malaria were concentrated in Northwestern Argentina, near the border with Bolivia, a country that continues to have malaria transmission. The Orán department (Salta province, Northwestern Argentina) had particularly high transmission near a main road that is a pathway for migration from Bolivia. The purpose of this study was to identify which factors best explain the extent and timing of changes in the proportion of malaria cases in this area that were locally transmitted versus acquired in another country. Combining information from routinely collected case investigations, epidemiological surveillance data, and satellite imagery, we used a logistic model and a multi-level model of change to identify how demographic and place-level variables influence the proportion of malaria cases that were imported over time. The findings showed that the proportion of cases that were imported varied significantly over time, with a clear trend from predominantly autochthonous cases at the beginning of the study in 1977 (94.52%) to a majority of imported cases in 1992 (53.33%), a pattern that continued and intensified, reaching 76% imported cases by the end of the series in 2009. Nationality and place of work were key demographic factors influencing this shift. In particular, there was a change in transmission patterns after a cross-border intervention was launched in 1996. As Argentina has obtained certification of malaria elimination, these results may inform focal strategies for preventing re-introduction.Fil: Berlin, Erica. Harvard University; Estados UnidosFil: Coello Peralta, Roberto D.. Universidad de Guayaquil; EcuadorFil: Cedeño Reyes, Pedro. Universidad de Guayaquil; EcuadorFil: Valle Mieles, Elsa M.. Universidad de Guayaquil; EcuadorFil: Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - Tucumán. Unidad Ejecutora Lillo; ArgentinaFil: Zaidenberg, Mario O.. Ministerio de Salud. Dirección de Enfermedades Transmisibles por Vectores; ArgentinaFil: Madariaga, Horacio Leonardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Filosofía y Letras. Instituto de Estudios Geográficos; ArgentinaFil: Navarro, Juan C.. Universidad Internacional SEK; EcuadorFil: Dantur Juri, Maria Julia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - Tucumán. Unidad Ejecutora Lillo; Argentina. Fundacion Miguel Lillo. Direccion de Biologia Integrativa. Instituto de Genetica y Microbiologia;Fil: Castro, Marcia C.. Harvard University; Estados UnidosMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute2025-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/265148Berlin, Erica; Coello Peralta, Roberto D.; Cedeño Reyes, Pedro; Valle Mieles, Elsa M.; Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo; et al.; Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009; Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute; Pathogens; 14; 6; 5-2025; 1-162076-0817CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0817/14/6/537info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3390/pathogens14060537info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:32:28Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/265148instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:32:28.675CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009 |
title |
Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009 |
spellingShingle |
Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009 Berlin, Erica Cross-border malaria Epidemiological surveillance Human migration Malaria |
title_short |
Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009 |
title_full |
Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009 |
title_fullStr |
Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009 |
title_sort |
Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009 |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Berlin, Erica Coello Peralta, Roberto D. Cedeño Reyes, Pedro Valle Mieles, Elsa M. Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo Zaidenberg, Mario O. Madariaga, Horacio Leonardo Navarro, Juan C. Dantur Juri, Maria Julia Castro, Marcia C. |
author |
Berlin, Erica |
author_facet |
Berlin, Erica Coello Peralta, Roberto D. Cedeño Reyes, Pedro Valle Mieles, Elsa M. Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo Zaidenberg, Mario O. Madariaga, Horacio Leonardo Navarro, Juan C. Dantur Juri, Maria Julia Castro, Marcia C. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Coello Peralta, Roberto D. Cedeño Reyes, Pedro Valle Mieles, Elsa M. Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo Zaidenberg, Mario O. Madariaga, Horacio Leonardo Navarro, Juan C. Dantur Juri, Maria Julia Castro, Marcia C. |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Cross-border malaria Epidemiological surveillance Human migration Malaria |
topic |
Cross-border malaria Epidemiological surveillance Human migration Malaria |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
In the Americas, the number of confirmed malaria cases decreased by 65.4% between 2000 and 2023, and malaria elimination is now in sight for many countries. Argentina is currently free of autochthonous malaria transmission. Until 2011, cases of malaria were concentrated in Northwestern Argentina, near the border with Bolivia, a country that continues to have malaria transmission. The Orán department (Salta province, Northwestern Argentina) had particularly high transmission near a main road that is a pathway for migration from Bolivia. The purpose of this study was to identify which factors best explain the extent and timing of changes in the proportion of malaria cases in this area that were locally transmitted versus acquired in another country. Combining information from routinely collected case investigations, epidemiological surveillance data, and satellite imagery, we used a logistic model and a multi-level model of change to identify how demographic and place-level variables influence the proportion of malaria cases that were imported over time. The findings showed that the proportion of cases that were imported varied significantly over time, with a clear trend from predominantly autochthonous cases at the beginning of the study in 1977 (94.52%) to a majority of imported cases in 1992 (53.33%), a pattern that continued and intensified, reaching 76% imported cases by the end of the series in 2009. Nationality and place of work were key demographic factors influencing this shift. In particular, there was a change in transmission patterns after a cross-border intervention was launched in 1996. As Argentina has obtained certification of malaria elimination, these results may inform focal strategies for preventing re-introduction. Fil: Berlin, Erica. Harvard University; Estados Unidos Fil: Coello Peralta, Roberto D.. Universidad de Guayaquil; Ecuador Fil: Cedeño Reyes, Pedro. Universidad de Guayaquil; Ecuador Fil: Valle Mieles, Elsa M.. Universidad de Guayaquil; Ecuador Fil: Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - Tucumán. Unidad Ejecutora Lillo; Argentina Fil: Zaidenberg, Mario O.. Ministerio de Salud. Dirección de Enfermedades Transmisibles por Vectores; Argentina Fil: Madariaga, Horacio Leonardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Filosofía y Letras. Instituto de Estudios Geográficos; Argentina Fil: Navarro, Juan C.. Universidad Internacional SEK; Ecuador Fil: Dantur Juri, Maria Julia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - Tucumán. Unidad Ejecutora Lillo; Argentina. Fundacion Miguel Lillo. Direccion de Biologia Integrativa. Instituto de Genetica y Microbiologia; Fil: Castro, Marcia C.. Harvard University; Estados Unidos |
description |
In the Americas, the number of confirmed malaria cases decreased by 65.4% between 2000 and 2023, and malaria elimination is now in sight for many countries. Argentina is currently free of autochthonous malaria transmission. Until 2011, cases of malaria were concentrated in Northwestern Argentina, near the border with Bolivia, a country that continues to have malaria transmission. The Orán department (Salta province, Northwestern Argentina) had particularly high transmission near a main road that is a pathway for migration from Bolivia. The purpose of this study was to identify which factors best explain the extent and timing of changes in the proportion of malaria cases in this area that were locally transmitted versus acquired in another country. Combining information from routinely collected case investigations, epidemiological surveillance data, and satellite imagery, we used a logistic model and a multi-level model of change to identify how demographic and place-level variables influence the proportion of malaria cases that were imported over time. The findings showed that the proportion of cases that were imported varied significantly over time, with a clear trend from predominantly autochthonous cases at the beginning of the study in 1977 (94.52%) to a majority of imported cases in 1992 (53.33%), a pattern that continued and intensified, reaching 76% imported cases by the end of the series in 2009. Nationality and place of work were key demographic factors influencing this shift. In particular, there was a change in transmission patterns after a cross-border intervention was launched in 1996. As Argentina has obtained certification of malaria elimination, these results may inform focal strategies for preventing re-introduction. |
publishDate |
2025 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2025-05 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/265148 Berlin, Erica; Coello Peralta, Roberto D.; Cedeño Reyes, Pedro; Valle Mieles, Elsa M.; Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo; et al.; Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009; Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute; Pathogens; 14; 6; 5-2025; 1-16 2076-0817 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/265148 |
identifier_str_mv |
Berlin, Erica; Coello Peralta, Roberto D.; Cedeño Reyes, Pedro; Valle Mieles, Elsa M.; Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo; et al.; Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009; Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute; Pathogens; 14; 6; 5-2025; 1-16 2076-0817 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0817/14/6/537 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3390/pathogens14060537 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/ |
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openAccess |
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/ |
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application/pdf application/pdf |
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Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
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Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
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reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
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Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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