Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009

Autores
Berlin, Erica; Coello Peralta, Roberto D.; Cedeño Reyes, Pedro; Valle Mieles, Elsa M.; Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo; Zaidenberg, Mario O.; Madariaga, Horacio Leonardo; Navarro, Juan C.; Dantur Juri, Maria Julia; Castro, Marcia C.
Año de publicación
2025
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
In the Americas, the number of confirmed malaria cases decreased by 65.4% between 2000 and 2023, and malaria elimination is now in sight for many countries. Argentina is currently free of autochthonous malaria transmission. Until 2011, cases of malaria were concentrated in Northwestern Argentina, near the border with Bolivia, a country that continues to have malaria transmission. The Orán department (Salta province, Northwestern Argentina) had particularly high transmission near a main road that is a pathway for migration from Bolivia. The purpose of this study was to identify which factors best explain the extent and timing of changes in the proportion of malaria cases in this area that were locally transmitted versus acquired in another country. Combining information from routinely collected case investigations, epidemiological surveillance data, and satellite imagery, we used a logistic model and a multi-level model of change to identify how demographic and place-level variables influence the proportion of malaria cases that were imported over time. The findings showed that the proportion of cases that were imported varied significantly over time, with a clear trend from predominantly autochthonous cases at the beginning of the study in 1977 (94.52%) to a majority of imported cases in 1992 (53.33%), a pattern that continued and intensified, reaching 76% imported cases by the end of the series in 2009. Nationality and place of work were key demographic factors influencing this shift. In particular, there was a change in transmission patterns after a cross-border intervention was launched in 1996. As Argentina has obtained certification of malaria elimination, these results may inform focal strategies for preventing re-introduction.
Fil: Berlin, Erica. Harvard University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Coello Peralta, Roberto D.. Universidad de Guayaquil; Ecuador
Fil: Cedeño Reyes, Pedro. Universidad de Guayaquil; Ecuador
Fil: Valle Mieles, Elsa M.. Universidad de Guayaquil; Ecuador
Fil: Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - Tucumán. Unidad Ejecutora Lillo; Argentina
Fil: Zaidenberg, Mario O.. Ministerio de Salud. Dirección de Enfermedades Transmisibles por Vectores; Argentina
Fil: Madariaga, Horacio Leonardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Filosofía y Letras. Instituto de Estudios Geográficos; Argentina
Fil: Navarro, Juan C.. Universidad Internacional SEK; Ecuador
Fil: Dantur Juri, Maria Julia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - Tucumán. Unidad Ejecutora Lillo; Argentina. Fundacion Miguel Lillo. Direccion de Biologia Integrativa. Instituto de Genetica y Microbiologia;
Fil: Castro, Marcia C.. Harvard University; Estados Unidos
Materia
Cross-border malaria
Epidemiological surveillance
Human migration
Malaria
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/265148
Acceder
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repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009Berlin, EricaCoello Peralta, Roberto D.Cedeño Reyes, PedroValle Mieles, Elsa M.Duque Padilla, Paul LeonardoZaidenberg, Mario O.Madariaga, Horacio LeonardoNavarro, Juan C.Dantur Juri, Maria JuliaCastro, Marcia C.Cross-border malariaEpidemiological surveillanceHuman migrationMalariahttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1In the Americas, the number of confirmed malaria cases decreased by 65.4% between 2000 and 2023, and malaria elimination is now in sight for many countries. Argentina is currently free of autochthonous malaria transmission. Until 2011, cases of malaria were concentrated in Northwestern Argentina, near the border with Bolivia, a country that continues to have malaria transmission. The Orán department (Salta province, Northwestern Argentina) had particularly high transmission near a main road that is a pathway for migration from Bolivia. The purpose of this study was to identify which factors best explain the extent and timing of changes in the proportion of malaria cases in this area that were locally transmitted versus acquired in another country. Combining information from routinely collected case investigations, epidemiological surveillance data, and satellite imagery, we used a logistic model and a multi-level model of change to identify how demographic and place-level variables influence the proportion of malaria cases that were imported over time. The findings showed that the proportion of cases that were imported varied significantly over time, with a clear trend from predominantly autochthonous cases at the beginning of the study in 1977 (94.52%) to a majority of imported cases in 1992 (53.33%), a pattern that continued and intensified, reaching 76% imported cases by the end of the series in 2009. Nationality and place of work were key demographic factors influencing this shift. In particular, there was a change in transmission patterns after a cross-border intervention was launched in 1996. As Argentina has obtained certification of malaria elimination, these results may inform focal strategies for preventing re-introduction.Fil: Berlin, Erica. Harvard University; Estados UnidosFil: Coello Peralta, Roberto D.. Universidad de Guayaquil; EcuadorFil: Cedeño Reyes, Pedro. Universidad de Guayaquil; EcuadorFil: Valle Mieles, Elsa M.. Universidad de Guayaquil; EcuadorFil: Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - Tucumán. Unidad Ejecutora Lillo; ArgentinaFil: Zaidenberg, Mario O.. Ministerio de Salud. Dirección de Enfermedades Transmisibles por Vectores; ArgentinaFil: Madariaga, Horacio Leonardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Filosofía y Letras. Instituto de Estudios Geográficos; ArgentinaFil: Navarro, Juan C.. Universidad Internacional SEK; EcuadorFil: Dantur Juri, Maria Julia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - Tucumán. Unidad Ejecutora Lillo; Argentina. Fundacion Miguel Lillo. Direccion de Biologia Integrativa. Instituto de Genetica y Microbiologia;Fil: Castro, Marcia C.. Harvard University; Estados UnidosMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute2025-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/265148Berlin, Erica; Coello Peralta, Roberto D.; Cedeño Reyes, Pedro; Valle Mieles, Elsa M.; Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo; et al.; Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009; Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute; Pathogens; 14; 6; 5-2025; 1-162076-0817CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0817/14/6/537info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3390/pathogens14060537info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T14:20:22Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/265148instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 14:20:22.659CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009
title Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009
spellingShingle Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009
Berlin, Erica
Cross-border malaria
Epidemiological surveillance
Human migration
Malaria
title_short Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009
title_full Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009
title_fullStr Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009
title_full_unstemmed Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009
title_sort Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Berlin, Erica
Coello Peralta, Roberto D.
Cedeño Reyes, Pedro
Valle Mieles, Elsa M.
Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo
Zaidenberg, Mario O.
Madariaga, Horacio Leonardo
Navarro, Juan C.
Dantur Juri, Maria Julia
Castro, Marcia C.
author Berlin, Erica
author_facet Berlin, Erica
Coello Peralta, Roberto D.
Cedeño Reyes, Pedro
Valle Mieles, Elsa M.
Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo
Zaidenberg, Mario O.
Madariaga, Horacio Leonardo
Navarro, Juan C.
Dantur Juri, Maria Julia
Castro, Marcia C.
author_role author
author2 Coello Peralta, Roberto D.
Cedeño Reyes, Pedro
Valle Mieles, Elsa M.
Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo
Zaidenberg, Mario O.
Madariaga, Horacio Leonardo
Navarro, Juan C.
Dantur Juri, Maria Julia
Castro, Marcia C.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Cross-border malaria
Epidemiological surveillance
Human migration
Malaria
topic Cross-border malaria
Epidemiological surveillance
Human migration
Malaria
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv In the Americas, the number of confirmed malaria cases decreased by 65.4% between 2000 and 2023, and malaria elimination is now in sight for many countries. Argentina is currently free of autochthonous malaria transmission. Until 2011, cases of malaria were concentrated in Northwestern Argentina, near the border with Bolivia, a country that continues to have malaria transmission. The Orán department (Salta province, Northwestern Argentina) had particularly high transmission near a main road that is a pathway for migration from Bolivia. The purpose of this study was to identify which factors best explain the extent and timing of changes in the proportion of malaria cases in this area that were locally transmitted versus acquired in another country. Combining information from routinely collected case investigations, epidemiological surveillance data, and satellite imagery, we used a logistic model and a multi-level model of change to identify how demographic and place-level variables influence the proportion of malaria cases that were imported over time. The findings showed that the proportion of cases that were imported varied significantly over time, with a clear trend from predominantly autochthonous cases at the beginning of the study in 1977 (94.52%) to a majority of imported cases in 1992 (53.33%), a pattern that continued and intensified, reaching 76% imported cases by the end of the series in 2009. Nationality and place of work were key demographic factors influencing this shift. In particular, there was a change in transmission patterns after a cross-border intervention was launched in 1996. As Argentina has obtained certification of malaria elimination, these results may inform focal strategies for preventing re-introduction.
Fil: Berlin, Erica. Harvard University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Coello Peralta, Roberto D.. Universidad de Guayaquil; Ecuador
Fil: Cedeño Reyes, Pedro. Universidad de Guayaquil; Ecuador
Fil: Valle Mieles, Elsa M.. Universidad de Guayaquil; Ecuador
Fil: Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - Tucumán. Unidad Ejecutora Lillo; Argentina
Fil: Zaidenberg, Mario O.. Ministerio de Salud. Dirección de Enfermedades Transmisibles por Vectores; Argentina
Fil: Madariaga, Horacio Leonardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Filosofía y Letras. Instituto de Estudios Geográficos; Argentina
Fil: Navarro, Juan C.. Universidad Internacional SEK; Ecuador
Fil: Dantur Juri, Maria Julia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - Tucumán. Unidad Ejecutora Lillo; Argentina. Fundacion Miguel Lillo. Direccion de Biologia Integrativa. Instituto de Genetica y Microbiologia;
Fil: Castro, Marcia C.. Harvard University; Estados Unidos
description In the Americas, the number of confirmed malaria cases decreased by 65.4% between 2000 and 2023, and malaria elimination is now in sight for many countries. Argentina is currently free of autochthonous malaria transmission. Until 2011, cases of malaria were concentrated in Northwestern Argentina, near the border with Bolivia, a country that continues to have malaria transmission. The Orán department (Salta province, Northwestern Argentina) had particularly high transmission near a main road that is a pathway for migration from Bolivia. The purpose of this study was to identify which factors best explain the extent and timing of changes in the proportion of malaria cases in this area that were locally transmitted versus acquired in another country. Combining information from routinely collected case investigations, epidemiological surveillance data, and satellite imagery, we used a logistic model and a multi-level model of change to identify how demographic and place-level variables influence the proportion of malaria cases that were imported over time. The findings showed that the proportion of cases that were imported varied significantly over time, with a clear trend from predominantly autochthonous cases at the beginning of the study in 1977 (94.52%) to a majority of imported cases in 1992 (53.33%), a pattern that continued and intensified, reaching 76% imported cases by the end of the series in 2009. Nationality and place of work were key demographic factors influencing this shift. In particular, there was a change in transmission patterns after a cross-border intervention was launched in 1996. As Argentina has obtained certification of malaria elimination, these results may inform focal strategies for preventing re-introduction.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025-05
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/265148
Berlin, Erica; Coello Peralta, Roberto D.; Cedeño Reyes, Pedro; Valle Mieles, Elsa M.; Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo; et al.; Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009; Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute; Pathogens; 14; 6; 5-2025; 1-16
2076-0817
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/265148
identifier_str_mv Berlin, Erica; Coello Peralta, Roberto D.; Cedeño Reyes, Pedro; Valle Mieles, Elsa M.; Duque Padilla, Paul Leonardo; et al.; Patterns and Determinants of Imported Malaria near the Argentina–Bolivia Border, 1977–2009; Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute; Pathogens; 14; 6; 5-2025; 1-16
2076-0817
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0817/14/6/537
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3390/pathogens14060537
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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