Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models

Autores
Vera, Carolina Susana; Díaz, Leandro Baltasar
Año de publicación
2015
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Austral summer rainfall trends are analysed over South America from observations and simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 between 1902 and 2005. Positive trends in southeastern South America (SESA) and negative ones in the southern Andes (SAn) are the most significant observed features. Mean trends obtained from an ensemble of 59 simulations from 14 models for the historical experiment (including both natural and anthropogenic forcings) are able to reproduce those precipitation changes, although weaker than observed. Most of the simulations reproduce the right sign of the precipitation changes at both regions. However, associated uncertainty ranges (due to both inter-model dispersion and internal climate variability) are still large. Mean trends for the historical experiment are statistically distinguishable from those obtained for the natural-forcing-only experiment, which exhibit negligible mean values at both regions. Results allow concluding that the anthropogenic forcing has at least a partial contribution in explaining the precipitation changes observed in both SESA and SAn regions during the last century.
Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
Fil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
Materia
Cambio Climatico
Tendencias de Precipitacion
Sudamerica
Calentamiento Global
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/19840
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 modelsVera, Carolina SusanaDíaz, Leandro BaltasarCambio ClimaticoTendencias de PrecipitacionSudamericaCalentamiento Globalhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Austral summer rainfall trends are analysed over South America from observations and simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 between 1902 and 2005. Positive trends in southeastern South America (SESA) and negative ones in the southern Andes (SAn) are the most significant observed features. Mean trends obtained from an ensemble of 59 simulations from 14 models for the historical experiment (including both natural and anthropogenic forcings) are able to reproduce those precipitation changes, although weaker than observed. Most of the simulations reproduce the right sign of the precipitation changes at both regions. However, associated uncertainty ranges (due to both inter-model dispersion and internal climate variability) are still large. Mean trends for the historical experiment are statistically distinguishable from those obtained for the natural-forcing-only experiment, which exhibit negligible mean values at both regions. Results allow concluding that the anthropogenic forcing has at least a partial contribution in explaining the precipitation changes observed in both SESA and SAn regions during the last century.Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; ArgentinaFil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; ArgentinaWiley2015-08info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/19840Vera, Carolina Susana; Díaz, Leandro Baltasar; Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models; Wiley; International Journal Of Climatology; 35; 10; 8-2015; 3172-31770899-8418enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.4153info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4153/abstractinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-11-12T09:51:30Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/19840instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-11-12 09:51:30.841CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models
title Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models
spellingShingle Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models
Vera, Carolina Susana
Cambio Climatico
Tendencias de Precipitacion
Sudamerica
Calentamiento Global
title_short Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models
title_full Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models
title_fullStr Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models
title_full_unstemmed Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models
title_sort Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Vera, Carolina Susana
Díaz, Leandro Baltasar
author Vera, Carolina Susana
author_facet Vera, Carolina Susana
Díaz, Leandro Baltasar
author_role author
author2 Díaz, Leandro Baltasar
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Cambio Climatico
Tendencias de Precipitacion
Sudamerica
Calentamiento Global
topic Cambio Climatico
Tendencias de Precipitacion
Sudamerica
Calentamiento Global
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Austral summer rainfall trends are analysed over South America from observations and simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 between 1902 and 2005. Positive trends in southeastern South America (SESA) and negative ones in the southern Andes (SAn) are the most significant observed features. Mean trends obtained from an ensemble of 59 simulations from 14 models for the historical experiment (including both natural and anthropogenic forcings) are able to reproduce those precipitation changes, although weaker than observed. Most of the simulations reproduce the right sign of the precipitation changes at both regions. However, associated uncertainty ranges (due to both inter-model dispersion and internal climate variability) are still large. Mean trends for the historical experiment are statistically distinguishable from those obtained for the natural-forcing-only experiment, which exhibit negligible mean values at both regions. Results allow concluding that the anthropogenic forcing has at least a partial contribution in explaining the precipitation changes observed in both SESA and SAn regions during the last century.
Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
Fil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
description Austral summer rainfall trends are analysed over South America from observations and simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 between 1902 and 2005. Positive trends in southeastern South America (SESA) and negative ones in the southern Andes (SAn) are the most significant observed features. Mean trends obtained from an ensemble of 59 simulations from 14 models for the historical experiment (including both natural and anthropogenic forcings) are able to reproduce those precipitation changes, although weaker than observed. Most of the simulations reproduce the right sign of the precipitation changes at both regions. However, associated uncertainty ranges (due to both inter-model dispersion and internal climate variability) are still large. Mean trends for the historical experiment are statistically distinguishable from those obtained for the natural-forcing-only experiment, which exhibit negligible mean values at both regions. Results allow concluding that the anthropogenic forcing has at least a partial contribution in explaining the precipitation changes observed in both SESA and SAn regions during the last century.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-08
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/19840
Vera, Carolina Susana; Díaz, Leandro Baltasar; Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models; Wiley; International Journal Of Climatology; 35; 10; 8-2015; 3172-3177
0899-8418
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/19840
identifier_str_mv Vera, Carolina Susana; Díaz, Leandro Baltasar; Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models; Wiley; International Journal Of Climatology; 35; 10; 8-2015; 3172-3177
0899-8418
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.4153
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4153/abstract
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.25334

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