Heat vulnerability in a hyper-arid coastal conurbation: downscaled LST and socio-spatial analysis

Autores
Sarricolea, Pablo; Baltazar, Alexis; Meseguer-Ruiz, Oliver; Smith, Pamela; Picone, Natasha; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Vidal-Paez, Paulina; Fuentealba, Magdalena; Thomas, Felipe
Año de publicación
2025
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Heat vulnerability is a critical issue for cities under climate change, especially in socially precarious contexts and extreme climates such as deserts. The Iquique–Alto Hospicio conurbation in northern Chile represents a distinctive case study due to its marked altitudinal contrasts and rapid urban expansion. This research focuses on assessing the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) at its peak expression, during summer nighttime conditions, in order to spatialize heat vulnerability. A multi-scalar workflow was applied, beginning with long-term multitemporal analysis of land surface temperature at moderate resolution (2002–2023) and extending to high-resolution downscaling for five recent years (2019–2023) using bilinear resampling combined with robust regression techniques. A heat vulnerability index was then developed through principal component analysis (four components, ∼74% variance explained), complemented by a spatial cluster analysis based on Anselin’s Local Moran’s I, which delineated statistically significant hot-spots in Iquique’s historic core and in recently formalized social-housing districts on the Alto Hospicio plateau, as well as cold-spots along the affluent coastal seafront. The results confirm the presence of a strong nocturnal summer SUHI, largely coinciding with the most densely populated areas characterized by low-rise housing and limited green space. The local climate zone Compact low-rise and lightweight built forms were identified as the most vulnerable to heat. The study concludes that effective strategies should promote less dense building typologies while incorporating urban infrastructures that act as climate refuges across the conurbation. More broadly, the approach offers a transferable template for climate-resilient planning in data-scarce, arid coastal cities worldwide.
Fil: Sarricolea, Pablo. Universidad de Chile; Chile
Fil: Baltazar, Alexis. Universidad de Chile; Chile
Fil: Meseguer-Ruiz, Oliver. Universidad de Tarapacá; Chile
Fil: Smith, Pamela. Universidad de Chile; Chile
Fil: Picone, Natasha. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tandil. Instituto de Geografía, Historia y Ciencias Sociales. Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Instituto de Geografía, Historia y Ciencias Sociales; Argentina
Fil: Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto. Universidad de Zaragoza; España
Fil: Vidal-Paez, Paulina. Universidad Mayor; Chile
Fil: Fuentealba, Magdalena. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; Chile
Fil: Thomas, Felipe. Universidad de Chile; Chile
Materia
CHILE
HEAT VULNERABILITY INDEX (HVI)
IQUIQUE-ALTO HOSPICIO
LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE (LST)
LOCAL CLIMATES ZONES (LCZs)
SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION
SURFACE URBAN HEAT ISLAND (SUHI)
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/281391
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/281391
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Heat vulnerability in a hyper-arid coastal conurbation: downscaled LST and socio-spatial analysisSarricolea, PabloBaltazar, AlexisMeseguer-Ruiz, OliverSmith, PamelaPicone, NatashaSerrano-Notivoli, RobertoVidal-Paez, PaulinaFuentealba, MagdalenaThomas, FelipeCHILEHEAT VULNERABILITY INDEX (HVI)IQUIQUE-ALTO HOSPICIOLAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE (LST)LOCAL CLIMATES ZONES (LCZs)SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATIONSURFACE URBAN HEAT ISLAND (SUHI)https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Heat vulnerability is a critical issue for cities under climate change, especially in socially precarious contexts and extreme climates such as deserts. The Iquique–Alto Hospicio conurbation in northern Chile represents a distinctive case study due to its marked altitudinal contrasts and rapid urban expansion. This research focuses on assessing the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) at its peak expression, during summer nighttime conditions, in order to spatialize heat vulnerability. A multi-scalar workflow was applied, beginning with long-term multitemporal analysis of land surface temperature at moderate resolution (2002–2023) and extending to high-resolution downscaling for five recent years (2019–2023) using bilinear resampling combined with robust regression techniques. A heat vulnerability index was then developed through principal component analysis (four components, ∼74% variance explained), complemented by a spatial cluster analysis based on Anselin’s Local Moran’s I, which delineated statistically significant hot-spots in Iquique’s historic core and in recently formalized social-housing districts on the Alto Hospicio plateau, as well as cold-spots along the affluent coastal seafront. The results confirm the presence of a strong nocturnal summer SUHI, largely coinciding with the most densely populated areas characterized by low-rise housing and limited green space. The local climate zone Compact low-rise and lightweight built forms were identified as the most vulnerable to heat. The study concludes that effective strategies should promote less dense building typologies while incorporating urban infrastructures that act as climate refuges across the conurbation. More broadly, the approach offers a transferable template for climate-resilient planning in data-scarce, arid coastal cities worldwide.Fil: Sarricolea, Pablo. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Baltazar, Alexis. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Meseguer-Ruiz, Oliver. Universidad de Tarapacá; ChileFil: Smith, Pamela. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Picone, Natasha. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tandil. Instituto de Geografía, Historia y Ciencias Sociales. Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Instituto de Geografía, Historia y Ciencias Sociales; ArgentinaFil: Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto. Universidad de Zaragoza; EspañaFil: Vidal-Paez, Paulina. Universidad Mayor; ChileFil: Fuentealba, Magdalena. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; ChileFil: Thomas, Felipe. Universidad de Chile; ChileIOP2025-11info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/281391Sarricolea, Pablo; Baltazar, Alexis; Meseguer-Ruiz, Oliver; Smith, Pamela; Picone, Natasha; et al.; Heat vulnerability in a hyper-arid coastal conurbation: downscaled LST and socio-spatial analysis; IOP; Environmental Research: Climate; 4; 4; 11-2025; 1-252752-5295CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ae1b2einfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/2752-5295/ae1b2einfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2026-02-26T10:26:50Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/281391instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982026-02-26 10:26:50.88CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Heat vulnerability in a hyper-arid coastal conurbation: downscaled LST and socio-spatial analysis
title Heat vulnerability in a hyper-arid coastal conurbation: downscaled LST and socio-spatial analysis
spellingShingle Heat vulnerability in a hyper-arid coastal conurbation: downscaled LST and socio-spatial analysis
Sarricolea, Pablo
CHILE
HEAT VULNERABILITY INDEX (HVI)
IQUIQUE-ALTO HOSPICIO
LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE (LST)
LOCAL CLIMATES ZONES (LCZs)
SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION
SURFACE URBAN HEAT ISLAND (SUHI)
title_short Heat vulnerability in a hyper-arid coastal conurbation: downscaled LST and socio-spatial analysis
title_full Heat vulnerability in a hyper-arid coastal conurbation: downscaled LST and socio-spatial analysis
title_fullStr Heat vulnerability in a hyper-arid coastal conurbation: downscaled LST and socio-spatial analysis
title_full_unstemmed Heat vulnerability in a hyper-arid coastal conurbation: downscaled LST and socio-spatial analysis
title_sort Heat vulnerability in a hyper-arid coastal conurbation: downscaled LST and socio-spatial analysis
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Sarricolea, Pablo
Baltazar, Alexis
Meseguer-Ruiz, Oliver
Smith, Pamela
Picone, Natasha
Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto
Vidal-Paez, Paulina
Fuentealba, Magdalena
Thomas, Felipe
author Sarricolea, Pablo
author_facet Sarricolea, Pablo
Baltazar, Alexis
Meseguer-Ruiz, Oliver
Smith, Pamela
Picone, Natasha
Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto
Vidal-Paez, Paulina
Fuentealba, Magdalena
Thomas, Felipe
author_role author
author2 Baltazar, Alexis
Meseguer-Ruiz, Oliver
Smith, Pamela
Picone, Natasha
Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto
Vidal-Paez, Paulina
Fuentealba, Magdalena
Thomas, Felipe
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CHILE
HEAT VULNERABILITY INDEX (HVI)
IQUIQUE-ALTO HOSPICIO
LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE (LST)
LOCAL CLIMATES ZONES (LCZs)
SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION
SURFACE URBAN HEAT ISLAND (SUHI)
topic CHILE
HEAT VULNERABILITY INDEX (HVI)
IQUIQUE-ALTO HOSPICIO
LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE (LST)
LOCAL CLIMATES ZONES (LCZs)
SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION
SURFACE URBAN HEAT ISLAND (SUHI)
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Heat vulnerability is a critical issue for cities under climate change, especially in socially precarious contexts and extreme climates such as deserts. The Iquique–Alto Hospicio conurbation in northern Chile represents a distinctive case study due to its marked altitudinal contrasts and rapid urban expansion. This research focuses on assessing the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) at its peak expression, during summer nighttime conditions, in order to spatialize heat vulnerability. A multi-scalar workflow was applied, beginning with long-term multitemporal analysis of land surface temperature at moderate resolution (2002–2023) and extending to high-resolution downscaling for five recent years (2019–2023) using bilinear resampling combined with robust regression techniques. A heat vulnerability index was then developed through principal component analysis (four components, ∼74% variance explained), complemented by a spatial cluster analysis based on Anselin’s Local Moran’s I, which delineated statistically significant hot-spots in Iquique’s historic core and in recently formalized social-housing districts on the Alto Hospicio plateau, as well as cold-spots along the affluent coastal seafront. The results confirm the presence of a strong nocturnal summer SUHI, largely coinciding with the most densely populated areas characterized by low-rise housing and limited green space. The local climate zone Compact low-rise and lightweight built forms were identified as the most vulnerable to heat. The study concludes that effective strategies should promote less dense building typologies while incorporating urban infrastructures that act as climate refuges across the conurbation. More broadly, the approach offers a transferable template for climate-resilient planning in data-scarce, arid coastal cities worldwide.
Fil: Sarricolea, Pablo. Universidad de Chile; Chile
Fil: Baltazar, Alexis. Universidad de Chile; Chile
Fil: Meseguer-Ruiz, Oliver. Universidad de Tarapacá; Chile
Fil: Smith, Pamela. Universidad de Chile; Chile
Fil: Picone, Natasha. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tandil. Instituto de Geografía, Historia y Ciencias Sociales. Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Instituto de Geografía, Historia y Ciencias Sociales; Argentina
Fil: Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto. Universidad de Zaragoza; España
Fil: Vidal-Paez, Paulina. Universidad Mayor; Chile
Fil: Fuentealba, Magdalena. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; Chile
Fil: Thomas, Felipe. Universidad de Chile; Chile
description Heat vulnerability is a critical issue for cities under climate change, especially in socially precarious contexts and extreme climates such as deserts. The Iquique–Alto Hospicio conurbation in northern Chile represents a distinctive case study due to its marked altitudinal contrasts and rapid urban expansion. This research focuses on assessing the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) at its peak expression, during summer nighttime conditions, in order to spatialize heat vulnerability. A multi-scalar workflow was applied, beginning with long-term multitemporal analysis of land surface temperature at moderate resolution (2002–2023) and extending to high-resolution downscaling for five recent years (2019–2023) using bilinear resampling combined with robust regression techniques. A heat vulnerability index was then developed through principal component analysis (four components, ∼74% variance explained), complemented by a spatial cluster analysis based on Anselin’s Local Moran’s I, which delineated statistically significant hot-spots in Iquique’s historic core and in recently formalized social-housing districts on the Alto Hospicio plateau, as well as cold-spots along the affluent coastal seafront. The results confirm the presence of a strong nocturnal summer SUHI, largely coinciding with the most densely populated areas characterized by low-rise housing and limited green space. The local climate zone Compact low-rise and lightweight built forms were identified as the most vulnerable to heat. The study concludes that effective strategies should promote less dense building typologies while incorporating urban infrastructures that act as climate refuges across the conurbation. More broadly, the approach offers a transferable template for climate-resilient planning in data-scarce, arid coastal cities worldwide.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025-11
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/281391
Sarricolea, Pablo; Baltazar, Alexis; Meseguer-Ruiz, Oliver; Smith, Pamela; Picone, Natasha; et al.; Heat vulnerability in a hyper-arid coastal conurbation: downscaled LST and socio-spatial analysis; IOP; Environmental Research: Climate; 4; 4; 11-2025; 1-25
2752-5295
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/281391
identifier_str_mv Sarricolea, Pablo; Baltazar, Alexis; Meseguer-Ruiz, Oliver; Smith, Pamela; Picone, Natasha; et al.; Heat vulnerability in a hyper-arid coastal conurbation: downscaled LST and socio-spatial analysis; IOP; Environmental Research: Climate; 4; 4; 11-2025; 1-25
2752-5295
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ae1b2e
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/2752-5295/ae1b2e
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv IOP
publisher.none.fl_str_mv IOP
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.176822

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