Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems

Autores
Podestá, Guillermo; Bert, Federico Esteban; Rajagopalan, B.; Apipattanavis, S.; Laciana, Carlos Ernesto; Weber, E.; Easterling, W.; Katz, R.; Letson, D.; Menendez, A.
Año de publicación
2009
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The Pampas of Argentina have shown some of the most consistently increasing trends in precipitation during the 20th century. The rainfall increase has partly contributed to a significant expansion of agricultural area, particularly in climatically marginal regions of the Pampas. However, it is unclear if current agricultural production systems, which evolved partly in response to enhanced climate conditions, may remain viable if (as entirely possible) climate reverts to a drier epoch. We assess the potential impacts of a plausible decreasing trend in precipitation on the economic sustainability of 2 contrasting agricultural systems in the Pampas: Pergamino, in the most productive subregion of the Pampas, and Pilar, in the northern, semi-arid margin of the region. Also, we explore the scope for adaptation to changing climate. In the case where there is no adaptation, if precipitation decreases, as is plausible, impacts may be quite different between locations: whereas in Pergamino crop economic returns would not change noticeably, the more marginal Pilar would experience a marked decrease in profits and an increase in production risks. However, potential negative impacts might be mitigated, in part, if farmers adapt their agronomic management using current available technology or know-how.
Fil: Podestá, Guillermo. University of Miami; Estados Unidos
Fil: Bert, Federico Esteban. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario; Argentina
Fil: Rajagopalan, B.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos
Fil: Apipattanavis, S.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos
Fil: Laciana, Carlos Ernesto. Columbia University; Estados Unidos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Weber, E.. State University of Pennsylvania; Estados Unidos
Fil: Easterling, W.. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos
Fil: Katz, R.. No especifíca;
Fil: Letson, D.. University of Miami; Estados Unidos
Fil: Menendez, A.. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina
Materia
CLIMATE SCENARIOS
CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY
DECISION-MAKING
CROP MODELS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/112190
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/112190
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systemsPodestá, GuillermoBert, Federico EstebanRajagopalan, B.Apipattanavis, S.Laciana, Carlos ErnestoWeber, E.Easterling, W.Katz, R.Letson, D.Menendez, A.CLIMATE SCENARIOSCUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORYDECISION-MAKINGCROP MODELShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The Pampas of Argentina have shown some of the most consistently increasing trends in precipitation during the 20th century. The rainfall increase has partly contributed to a significant expansion of agricultural area, particularly in climatically marginal regions of the Pampas. However, it is unclear if current agricultural production systems, which evolved partly in response to enhanced climate conditions, may remain viable if (as entirely possible) climate reverts to a drier epoch. We assess the potential impacts of a plausible decreasing trend in precipitation on the economic sustainability of 2 contrasting agricultural systems in the Pampas: Pergamino, in the most productive subregion of the Pampas, and Pilar, in the northern, semi-arid margin of the region. Also, we explore the scope for adaptation to changing climate. In the case where there is no adaptation, if precipitation decreases, as is plausible, impacts may be quite different between locations: whereas in Pergamino crop economic returns would not change noticeably, the more marginal Pilar would experience a marked decrease in profits and an increase in production risks. However, potential negative impacts might be mitigated, in part, if farmers adapt their agronomic management using current available technology or know-how.Fil: Podestá, Guillermo. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Bert, Federico Esteban. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario; ArgentinaFil: Rajagopalan, B.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados UnidosFil: Apipattanavis, S.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados UnidosFil: Laciana, Carlos Ernesto. Columbia University; Estados Unidos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Weber, E.. State University of Pennsylvania; Estados UnidosFil: Easterling, W.. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados UnidosFil: Katz, R.. No especifíca;Fil: Letson, D.. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Menendez, A.. Universidad de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaInter-Research2009-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/112190Podestá, Guillermo; Bert, Federico Esteban; Rajagopalan, B.; Apipattanavis, S.; Laciana, Carlos Ernesto; et al.; Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 40; 12-2009; 199-2100936-577XCONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v40/n2-3/p199-210/info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3354/cr00807info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T09:54:39Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/112190instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 09:54:39.982CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems
title Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems
spellingShingle Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems
Podestá, Guillermo
CLIMATE SCENARIOS
CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY
DECISION-MAKING
CROP MODELS
title_short Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems
title_full Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems
title_fullStr Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems
title_full_unstemmed Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems
title_sort Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Podestá, Guillermo
Bert, Federico Esteban
Rajagopalan, B.
Apipattanavis, S.
Laciana, Carlos Ernesto
Weber, E.
Easterling, W.
Katz, R.
Letson, D.
Menendez, A.
author Podestá, Guillermo
author_facet Podestá, Guillermo
Bert, Federico Esteban
Rajagopalan, B.
Apipattanavis, S.
Laciana, Carlos Ernesto
Weber, E.
Easterling, W.
Katz, R.
Letson, D.
Menendez, A.
author_role author
author2 Bert, Federico Esteban
Rajagopalan, B.
Apipattanavis, S.
Laciana, Carlos Ernesto
Weber, E.
Easterling, W.
Katz, R.
Letson, D.
Menendez, A.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CLIMATE SCENARIOS
CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY
DECISION-MAKING
CROP MODELS
topic CLIMATE SCENARIOS
CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY
DECISION-MAKING
CROP MODELS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The Pampas of Argentina have shown some of the most consistently increasing trends in precipitation during the 20th century. The rainfall increase has partly contributed to a significant expansion of agricultural area, particularly in climatically marginal regions of the Pampas. However, it is unclear if current agricultural production systems, which evolved partly in response to enhanced climate conditions, may remain viable if (as entirely possible) climate reverts to a drier epoch. We assess the potential impacts of a plausible decreasing trend in precipitation on the economic sustainability of 2 contrasting agricultural systems in the Pampas: Pergamino, in the most productive subregion of the Pampas, and Pilar, in the northern, semi-arid margin of the region. Also, we explore the scope for adaptation to changing climate. In the case where there is no adaptation, if precipitation decreases, as is plausible, impacts may be quite different between locations: whereas in Pergamino crop economic returns would not change noticeably, the more marginal Pilar would experience a marked decrease in profits and an increase in production risks. However, potential negative impacts might be mitigated, in part, if farmers adapt their agronomic management using current available technology or know-how.
Fil: Podestá, Guillermo. University of Miami; Estados Unidos
Fil: Bert, Federico Esteban. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario; Argentina
Fil: Rajagopalan, B.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos
Fil: Apipattanavis, S.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos
Fil: Laciana, Carlos Ernesto. Columbia University; Estados Unidos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Weber, E.. State University of Pennsylvania; Estados Unidos
Fil: Easterling, W.. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos
Fil: Katz, R.. No especifíca;
Fil: Letson, D.. University of Miami; Estados Unidos
Fil: Menendez, A.. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina
description The Pampas of Argentina have shown some of the most consistently increasing trends in precipitation during the 20th century. The rainfall increase has partly contributed to a significant expansion of agricultural area, particularly in climatically marginal regions of the Pampas. However, it is unclear if current agricultural production systems, which evolved partly in response to enhanced climate conditions, may remain viable if (as entirely possible) climate reverts to a drier epoch. We assess the potential impacts of a plausible decreasing trend in precipitation on the economic sustainability of 2 contrasting agricultural systems in the Pampas: Pergamino, in the most productive subregion of the Pampas, and Pilar, in the northern, semi-arid margin of the region. Also, we explore the scope for adaptation to changing climate. In the case where there is no adaptation, if precipitation decreases, as is plausible, impacts may be quite different between locations: whereas in Pergamino crop economic returns would not change noticeably, the more marginal Pilar would experience a marked decrease in profits and an increase in production risks. However, potential negative impacts might be mitigated, in part, if farmers adapt their agronomic management using current available technology or know-how.
publishDate 2009
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2009-12
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/112190
Podestá, Guillermo; Bert, Federico Esteban; Rajagopalan, B.; Apipattanavis, S.; Laciana, Carlos Ernesto; et al.; Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 40; 12-2009; 199-210
0936-577X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/112190
identifier_str_mv Podestá, Guillermo; Bert, Federico Esteban; Rajagopalan, B.; Apipattanavis, S.; Laciana, Carlos Ernesto; et al.; Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 40; 12-2009; 199-210
0936-577X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v40/n2-3/p199-210/
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3354/cr00807
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Inter-Research
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Inter-Research
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.13397

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