Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale
- Autores
- Cammalleri, Carmelo; Maffei, Samuele; Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.; Bavera, Davide; Fioravanti, Guido; Peretti, Mercedes; Spennemann, Pablo Cristian; Toreti, Andrea
- Año de publicación
- 2025
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Research interest on flash droughts has recently risen due to the challenges posed on drought early warning and management systems. Since the main characteristic of flash drought is a rapid initial development, we first implemented a novel index capturing this feature, and then tested it against different existing ones. The proposed index does not aim at capturing only flash droughts, but it can be used to characterize the initial development speed of all types of droughts. A selected set of events were classified using an expert-based semi-quantitative approach and used to evaluate the indices. The main finding points to the Initial Development Rate in the first 3 dekads (about 30 days) of the event (IDR3) as a robust metric. A global analysis of the index highlights: 1) south-eastern Asia and the Amazon basin as hotspots with faster mean development rates; 2) Australia and the western US as areas characterized by slow events, on average. Additionally, our analysis identifies a strong seasonal component in the IDR3, with some clear relationships with climatic and environmental factors such as annual average precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and vegetation mass. High soil moisture content and air temperature, and low vegetation amount, seem to be among the main variables controlling the speed of development. Following these results, the IDR3 seems to be a suitable index for drought forecasts aiming at anticipating the occurrence of rapid developing droughts.
Fil: Cammalleri, Carmelo. Politecnico di Milano; Italia
Fil: Maffei, Samuele. Politecnico di Milano; Italia
Fil: Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.. Politecnico di Milano; Italia
Fil: Bavera, Davide. No especifíca;
Fil: Fioravanti, Guido. No especifíca;
Fil: Peretti, Mercedes. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomia. Departamento de Recursos Naturales y Ambiente. Cátedra de Climatología y Fenologías Agrícolas; Argentina
Fil: Spennemann, Pablo Cristian. Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Toreti, Andrea. No especifíca; - Materia
-
soil wetness index
CEMS
drought early warning
agricultural drought - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/270761
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scaleCammalleri, CarmeloMaffei, SamueleCeppi, Alessandro F.G.Bavera, DavideFioravanti, GuidoPeretti, MercedesSpennemann, Pablo CristianToreti, Andreasoil wetness indexCEMSdrought early warningagricultural droughthttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Research interest on flash droughts has recently risen due to the challenges posed on drought early warning and management systems. Since the main characteristic of flash drought is a rapid initial development, we first implemented a novel index capturing this feature, and then tested it against different existing ones. The proposed index does not aim at capturing only flash droughts, but it can be used to characterize the initial development speed of all types of droughts. A selected set of events were classified using an expert-based semi-quantitative approach and used to evaluate the indices. The main finding points to the Initial Development Rate in the first 3 dekads (about 30 days) of the event (IDR3) as a robust metric. A global analysis of the index highlights: 1) south-eastern Asia and the Amazon basin as hotspots with faster mean development rates; 2) Australia and the western US as areas characterized by slow events, on average. Additionally, our analysis identifies a strong seasonal component in the IDR3, with some clear relationships with climatic and environmental factors such as annual average precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and vegetation mass. High soil moisture content and air temperature, and low vegetation amount, seem to be among the main variables controlling the speed of development. Following these results, the IDR3 seems to be a suitable index for drought forecasts aiming at anticipating the occurrence of rapid developing droughts.Fil: Cammalleri, Carmelo. Politecnico di Milano; ItaliaFil: Maffei, Samuele. Politecnico di Milano; ItaliaFil: Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.. Politecnico di Milano; ItaliaFil: Bavera, Davide. No especifíca;Fil: Fioravanti, Guido. No especifíca;Fil: Peretti, Mercedes. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomia. Departamento de Recursos Naturales y Ambiente. Cátedra de Climatología y Fenologías Agrícolas; ArgentinaFil: Spennemann, Pablo Cristian. Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Toreti, Andrea. No especifíca;Elsevier2025-08info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/270761Cammalleri, Carmelo; Maffei, Samuele; Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.; Bavera, Davide; Fioravanti, Guido; et al.; Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale; Elsevier; Weather and Climate Extremes; 49; 8-2025; 1-442212-0947CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212094725000581info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100800info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:28:10Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/270761instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:28:11.197CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale |
title |
Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale |
spellingShingle |
Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale Cammalleri, Carmelo soil wetness index CEMS drought early warning agricultural drought |
title_short |
Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale |
title_full |
Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale |
title_fullStr |
Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale |
title_full_unstemmed |
Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale |
title_sort |
Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Cammalleri, Carmelo Maffei, Samuele Ceppi, Alessandro F.G. Bavera, Davide Fioravanti, Guido Peretti, Mercedes Spennemann, Pablo Cristian Toreti, Andrea |
author |
Cammalleri, Carmelo |
author_facet |
Cammalleri, Carmelo Maffei, Samuele Ceppi, Alessandro F.G. Bavera, Davide Fioravanti, Guido Peretti, Mercedes Spennemann, Pablo Cristian Toreti, Andrea |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Maffei, Samuele Ceppi, Alessandro F.G. Bavera, Davide Fioravanti, Guido Peretti, Mercedes Spennemann, Pablo Cristian Toreti, Andrea |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
soil wetness index CEMS drought early warning agricultural drought |
topic |
soil wetness index CEMS drought early warning agricultural drought |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Research interest on flash droughts has recently risen due to the challenges posed on drought early warning and management systems. Since the main characteristic of flash drought is a rapid initial development, we first implemented a novel index capturing this feature, and then tested it against different existing ones. The proposed index does not aim at capturing only flash droughts, but it can be used to characterize the initial development speed of all types of droughts. A selected set of events were classified using an expert-based semi-quantitative approach and used to evaluate the indices. The main finding points to the Initial Development Rate in the first 3 dekads (about 30 days) of the event (IDR3) as a robust metric. A global analysis of the index highlights: 1) south-eastern Asia and the Amazon basin as hotspots with faster mean development rates; 2) Australia and the western US as areas characterized by slow events, on average. Additionally, our analysis identifies a strong seasonal component in the IDR3, with some clear relationships with climatic and environmental factors such as annual average precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and vegetation mass. High soil moisture content and air temperature, and low vegetation amount, seem to be among the main variables controlling the speed of development. Following these results, the IDR3 seems to be a suitable index for drought forecasts aiming at anticipating the occurrence of rapid developing droughts. Fil: Cammalleri, Carmelo. Politecnico di Milano; Italia Fil: Maffei, Samuele. Politecnico di Milano; Italia Fil: Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.. Politecnico di Milano; Italia Fil: Bavera, Davide. No especifíca; Fil: Fioravanti, Guido. No especifíca; Fil: Peretti, Mercedes. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomia. Departamento de Recursos Naturales y Ambiente. Cátedra de Climatología y Fenologías Agrícolas; Argentina Fil: Spennemann, Pablo Cristian. Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina Fil: Toreti, Andrea. No especifíca; |
description |
Research interest on flash droughts has recently risen due to the challenges posed on drought early warning and management systems. Since the main characteristic of flash drought is a rapid initial development, we first implemented a novel index capturing this feature, and then tested it against different existing ones. The proposed index does not aim at capturing only flash droughts, but it can be used to characterize the initial development speed of all types of droughts. A selected set of events were classified using an expert-based semi-quantitative approach and used to evaluate the indices. The main finding points to the Initial Development Rate in the first 3 dekads (about 30 days) of the event (IDR3) as a robust metric. A global analysis of the index highlights: 1) south-eastern Asia and the Amazon basin as hotspots with faster mean development rates; 2) Australia and the western US as areas characterized by slow events, on average. Additionally, our analysis identifies a strong seasonal component in the IDR3, with some clear relationships with climatic and environmental factors such as annual average precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and vegetation mass. High soil moisture content and air temperature, and low vegetation amount, seem to be among the main variables controlling the speed of development. Following these results, the IDR3 seems to be a suitable index for drought forecasts aiming at anticipating the occurrence of rapid developing droughts. |
publishDate |
2025 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2025-08 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/270761 Cammalleri, Carmelo; Maffei, Samuele; Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.; Bavera, Davide; Fioravanti, Guido; et al.; Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale; Elsevier; Weather and Climate Extremes; 49; 8-2025; 1-44 2212-0947 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/270761 |
identifier_str_mv |
Cammalleri, Carmelo; Maffei, Samuele; Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.; Bavera, Davide; Fioravanti, Guido; et al.; Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale; Elsevier; Weather and Climate Extremes; 49; 8-2025; 1-44 2212-0947 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212094725000581 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100800 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
reponame_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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1844614285588692992 |
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13.070432 |