Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale

Autores
Cammalleri, Carmelo; Maffei, Samuele; Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.; Bavera, Davide; Fioravanti, Guido; Peretti, Mercedes; Spennemann, Pablo Cristian; Toreti, Andrea
Año de publicación
2025
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Research interest on flash droughts has recently risen due to the challenges posed on drought early warning and management systems. Since the main characteristic of flash drought is a rapid initial development, we first implemented a novel index capturing this feature, and then tested it against different existing ones. The proposed index does not aim at capturing only flash droughts, but it can be used to characterize the initial development speed of all types of droughts. A selected set of events were classified using an expert-based semi-quantitative approach and used to evaluate the indices. The main finding points to the Initial Development Rate in the first 3 dekads (about 30 days) of the event (IDR3) as a robust metric. A global analysis of the index highlights: 1) south-eastern Asia and the Amazon basin as hotspots with faster mean development rates; 2) Australia and the western US as areas characterized by slow events, on average. Additionally, our analysis identifies a strong seasonal component in the IDR3, with some clear relationships with climatic and environmental factors such as annual average precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and vegetation mass. High soil moisture content and air temperature, and low vegetation amount, seem to be among the main variables controlling the speed of development. Following these results, the IDR3 seems to be a suitable index for drought forecasts aiming at anticipating the occurrence of rapid developing droughts.
Fil: Cammalleri, Carmelo. Politecnico di Milano; Italia
Fil: Maffei, Samuele. Politecnico di Milano; Italia
Fil: Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.. Politecnico di Milano; Italia
Fil: Bavera, Davide. No especifíca;
Fil: Fioravanti, Guido. No especifíca;
Fil: Peretti, Mercedes. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomia. Departamento de Recursos Naturales y Ambiente. Cátedra de Climatología y Fenologías Agrícolas; Argentina
Fil: Spennemann, Pablo Cristian. Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Toreti, Andrea. No especifíca;
Materia
soil wetness index
CEMS
drought early warning
agricultural drought
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/270761
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/270761
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scaleCammalleri, CarmeloMaffei, SamueleCeppi, Alessandro F.G.Bavera, DavideFioravanti, GuidoPeretti, MercedesSpennemann, Pablo CristianToreti, Andreasoil wetness indexCEMSdrought early warningagricultural droughthttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Research interest on flash droughts has recently risen due to the challenges posed on drought early warning and management systems. Since the main characteristic of flash drought is a rapid initial development, we first implemented a novel index capturing this feature, and then tested it against different existing ones. The proposed index does not aim at capturing only flash droughts, but it can be used to characterize the initial development speed of all types of droughts. A selected set of events were classified using an expert-based semi-quantitative approach and used to evaluate the indices. The main finding points to the Initial Development Rate in the first 3 dekads (about 30 days) of the event (IDR3) as a robust metric. A global analysis of the index highlights: 1) south-eastern Asia and the Amazon basin as hotspots with faster mean development rates; 2) Australia and the western US as areas characterized by slow events, on average. Additionally, our analysis identifies a strong seasonal component in the IDR3, with some clear relationships with climatic and environmental factors such as annual average precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and vegetation mass. High soil moisture content and air temperature, and low vegetation amount, seem to be among the main variables controlling the speed of development. Following these results, the IDR3 seems to be a suitable index for drought forecasts aiming at anticipating the occurrence of rapid developing droughts.Fil: Cammalleri, Carmelo. Politecnico di Milano; ItaliaFil: Maffei, Samuele. Politecnico di Milano; ItaliaFil: Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.. Politecnico di Milano; ItaliaFil: Bavera, Davide. No especifíca;Fil: Fioravanti, Guido. No especifíca;Fil: Peretti, Mercedes. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomia. Departamento de Recursos Naturales y Ambiente. Cátedra de Climatología y Fenologías Agrícolas; ArgentinaFil: Spennemann, Pablo Cristian. Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Toreti, Andrea. No especifíca;Elsevier2025-08info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/270761Cammalleri, Carmelo; Maffei, Samuele; Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.; Bavera, Davide; Fioravanti, Guido; et al.; Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale; Elsevier; Weather and Climate Extremes; 49; 8-2025; 1-442212-0947CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212094725000581info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100800info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T12:00:34Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/270761instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 12:00:34.579CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale
title Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale
spellingShingle Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale
Cammalleri, Carmelo
soil wetness index
CEMS
drought early warning
agricultural drought
title_short Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale
title_full Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale
title_fullStr Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale
title_full_unstemmed Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale
title_sort Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Cammalleri, Carmelo
Maffei, Samuele
Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.
Bavera, Davide
Fioravanti, Guido
Peretti, Mercedes
Spennemann, Pablo Cristian
Toreti, Andrea
author Cammalleri, Carmelo
author_facet Cammalleri, Carmelo
Maffei, Samuele
Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.
Bavera, Davide
Fioravanti, Guido
Peretti, Mercedes
Spennemann, Pablo Cristian
Toreti, Andrea
author_role author
author2 Maffei, Samuele
Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.
Bavera, Davide
Fioravanti, Guido
Peretti, Mercedes
Spennemann, Pablo Cristian
Toreti, Andrea
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv soil wetness index
CEMS
drought early warning
agricultural drought
topic soil wetness index
CEMS
drought early warning
agricultural drought
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Research interest on flash droughts has recently risen due to the challenges posed on drought early warning and management systems. Since the main characteristic of flash drought is a rapid initial development, we first implemented a novel index capturing this feature, and then tested it against different existing ones. The proposed index does not aim at capturing only flash droughts, but it can be used to characterize the initial development speed of all types of droughts. A selected set of events were classified using an expert-based semi-quantitative approach and used to evaluate the indices. The main finding points to the Initial Development Rate in the first 3 dekads (about 30 days) of the event (IDR3) as a robust metric. A global analysis of the index highlights: 1) south-eastern Asia and the Amazon basin as hotspots with faster mean development rates; 2) Australia and the western US as areas characterized by slow events, on average. Additionally, our analysis identifies a strong seasonal component in the IDR3, with some clear relationships with climatic and environmental factors such as annual average precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and vegetation mass. High soil moisture content and air temperature, and low vegetation amount, seem to be among the main variables controlling the speed of development. Following these results, the IDR3 seems to be a suitable index for drought forecasts aiming at anticipating the occurrence of rapid developing droughts.
Fil: Cammalleri, Carmelo. Politecnico di Milano; Italia
Fil: Maffei, Samuele. Politecnico di Milano; Italia
Fil: Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.. Politecnico di Milano; Italia
Fil: Bavera, Davide. No especifíca;
Fil: Fioravanti, Guido. No especifíca;
Fil: Peretti, Mercedes. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomia. Departamento de Recursos Naturales y Ambiente. Cátedra de Climatología y Fenologías Agrícolas; Argentina
Fil: Spennemann, Pablo Cristian. Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Toreti, Andrea. No especifíca;
description Research interest on flash droughts has recently risen due to the challenges posed on drought early warning and management systems. Since the main characteristic of flash drought is a rapid initial development, we first implemented a novel index capturing this feature, and then tested it against different existing ones. The proposed index does not aim at capturing only flash droughts, but it can be used to characterize the initial development speed of all types of droughts. A selected set of events were classified using an expert-based semi-quantitative approach and used to evaluate the indices. The main finding points to the Initial Development Rate in the first 3 dekads (about 30 days) of the event (IDR3) as a robust metric. A global analysis of the index highlights: 1) south-eastern Asia and the Amazon basin as hotspots with faster mean development rates; 2) Australia and the western US as areas characterized by slow events, on average. Additionally, our analysis identifies a strong seasonal component in the IDR3, with some clear relationships with climatic and environmental factors such as annual average precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and vegetation mass. High soil moisture content and air temperature, and low vegetation amount, seem to be among the main variables controlling the speed of development. Following these results, the IDR3 seems to be a suitable index for drought forecasts aiming at anticipating the occurrence of rapid developing droughts.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025-08
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/270761
Cammalleri, Carmelo; Maffei, Samuele; Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.; Bavera, Davide; Fioravanti, Guido; et al.; Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale; Elsevier; Weather and Climate Extremes; 49; 8-2025; 1-44
2212-0947
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/270761
identifier_str_mv Cammalleri, Carmelo; Maffei, Samuele; Ceppi, Alessandro F.G.; Bavera, Davide; Fioravanti, Guido; et al.; Beyond simple flash drought detection: An operational index to analyse the development speed of droughts at global scale; Elsevier; Weather and Climate Extremes; 49; 8-2025; 1-44
2212-0947
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212094725000581
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100800
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 12.982451

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