Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity

• Autores: Wilfahrt, Peter A.; Asmus, Ashley L.; Seabloom, Eric; Henning, Jeremiah A.; Adler, Peter; Arnillas, Carlos A.; Bakker, Jonathan; Biederman, Lori; Brudvig, Lars A.; Cadotte, Marc W.; Daleo, Pedro; Eskelinen, Anu; Firn, Jennifer; Harpole, W. Stanley; Hautier, Yann; Kirkman, Kevin P.; Komatsu, Kimberly J.; Laungani, Ramesh; MacDougall, Andrew; McCulley, Rebecca L.; Moore, Joslin L.; Morgan, John W.; Mortensen, Brent; Ochoa Hueso, Raul; Ohlert, Timothy; Power, Sally A.; Price, Jodi; Risch, Anita C.; Schuetz, Martin; Shoemaker, Lauren; Stevens, Carly; Strauss, Alexander T.; Tognetti, Pedro Maximiliano; Virtanen, Risto; Borer, Elizabeth
• Año de publicación: 2021
• Idioma: inglés
• Tipo de recurso: artículo
• Materia: CORE-TRANSIENT; EXTINCTION RISK; GRASSLANDS; HERBIVORES; NUTNET; NUTRIENTS; RARITY
• Institución: Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas

Spatial rarity is often used to predict extinction risk, but rarity can also occur temporally. Perhaps more relevant in the context of global change is whether a species is core to a community (persistent) or transient (intermittently present), with transient species often susceptible to human activities that reduce niche space. Using 5–12 yr of data on 1,447 plant species from 49 grasslands on five continents, we show that local abundance and species persistence under ambient conditions are both effective predictors of local extinction risk following experimental exclusion of grazers or addition of nutrients; persistence was a more powerful predictor than local abundance. While perturbations increased the risk of exclusion for low persistence and abundance species, transient but abundant species were also highly likely to be excluded from a perturbed plot relative to ambient conditions. Moreover, low persistence and low abundance species that were not excluded from perturbed plots tended to have a modest increase in abundance following perturbance. Last, even core species with high abundances had large decreases in persistence and increased losses in perturbed plots, threatening the long-term stability of these grasslands. Our results demonstrate that expanding the concept of rarity to include temporal dynamics, in addition to local abundance, more effectively predicts extinction risk in response to environmental change than either rarity axis predicts alone.
Fil: Wilfahrt, Peter A.. University of Minnesota; Estados Unidos
Fil: Asmus, Ashley L.. University of Minnesota; Estados Unidos
Fil: Seabloom, Eric. University of Minnesota; Estados Unidos
Fil: Henning, Jeremiah A.. University of Minnesota; Estados Unidos
Fil: Adler, Peter. State University of Utah; Estados Unidos
Fil: Arnillas, Carlos A.. University of Toronto Scarborough; Canadá
Fil: Bakker, Jonathan. University of Washington; Estados Unidos
Fil: Biederman, Lori. University of Iowa; Estados Unidos
Fil: Brudvig, Lars A.. Michigan State University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Cadotte, Marc W.. University of Toronto Scarborough; Canadá
Fil: Daleo, Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras; Argentina
Fil: Eskelinen, Anu. German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research; Alemania
Fil: Firn, Jennifer. University of Queensland; Australia
Fil: Harpole, W. Stanley. German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research; Alemania. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research; Alemania. Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg; Alemania
Fil: Hautier, Yann. Utrecht University; Países Bajos
Fil: Kirkman, Kevin P.. University of KwaZulu-Natal; Sudáfrica
Fil: Komatsu, Kimberly J.. Smithsonian Environmental Research Center; Estados Unidos
Fil: Laungani, Ramesh. Doane University; Estados Unidos
Fil: MacDougall, Andrew. University of Guelph; Canadá
Fil: McCulley, Rebecca L.. University of Kentucky; Estados Unidos
Fil: Moore, Joslin L.. Monash University; Australia
Fil: Morgan, John W.. La Trobe University; Australia
Fil: Mortensen, Brent. Benedictine College; Estados Unidos
Fil: Ochoa Hueso, Raul. Universidad de Cádiz; España
Fil: Ohlert, Timothy. University of New Mexico; Estados Unidos
Fil: Power, Sally A.. University of Western Sydney; Australia
Fil: Price, Jodi. Charles Sturt University; Australia
Fil: Risch, Anita C.. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; Suiza
Fil: Schuetz, Martin. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; Suiza
Fil: Shoemaker, Lauren. University of Wyoming; Estados Unidos
Fil: Stevens, Carly. Lancaster University; Reino Unido
Fil: Strauss, Alexander T.. University of Minnesota; Estados Unidos. University of Georgia; Estados Unidos
Fil: Tognetti, Pedro Maximiliano. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura; Argentina
Fil: Virtanen, Risto. University of Oulu; Finlandia
Fil: Borer, Elizabeth. University of Minnesota; Estados Unidos