110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability
- Autores
- Zitto, Miguel Eduardo; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Piotrkowski, Rosa; Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo
- Año de publicación
- 2015
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- There is growing evidence of significant changes in components of the Antarctic climate system, an important issue given the influence Antarctica has on global climate. It is important to infer to what extent these regional changes could be attributed to human-induced processes and to what extent to natural variability. Standard methods, such as linear trend estimates or piecewise linear trends can be inadequate since they may result in erratic, non-systematic results, particularly if different scales of variability are present in each record and various records are to be compared. The Orcadas Antarctic Station (Agentina), with daily surface meteorological observations since April 1903, provides Antarctica´s longest observational record. This study analyzes the Orcadas seasonal surface temperature variability. Multidecadal variability and short term trends are studied to provide an improved assessment of climate evolution and necessary information for the determination of mechanisms driving regional/local change. A combined method using Wavelet Transform (WT), non-linear statistical model approaches and derivative of fits is developed. This methodology is also applied for validation and comparison to the Gomez ice core oxygen isotope record for the 1857-2006 and 1903-2006 time intervals. Significant quasi 50-year and quasi 20-year variability bands were obtained, both for the quarterly and seasonal Orcadas temperature records, with warming (cooling) periods detected between 1903-1912, 1927- 1961 and 1972-2004 (1912-1927 and 1962-1972). If seasons are considered, the only one with a fairly sustained warming is summer, where actual cooling is observed only at the beginning, prior to the early 1930s. Quasi 50-year variability was also detected in the Gomez record. Long periods are obtained in the model fits, longer than the time series, which varied with window length. Though not representing variability cycles, they could represent the best fit of the non-linear, non oscillating asymptotic stationary component of the series, i.e. a non-linear trend.
Fil: Zitto, Miguel Eduardo. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Piotrkowski, Rosa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Martín; Argentina
Fil: Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina - Materia
-
Antarctica
Climate Change
Surface Temperature
Multidecadal Variability
Wavelet Transform
Temperature Trend - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/44173
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variabilityZitto, Miguel EduardoBarrucand, Mariana GracielaPiotrkowski, RosaCanziani, Pablo OsvaldoAntarcticaClimate ChangeSurface TemperatureMultidecadal VariabilityWavelet TransformTemperature Trendhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1There is growing evidence of significant changes in components of the Antarctic climate system, an important issue given the influence Antarctica has on global climate. It is important to infer to what extent these regional changes could be attributed to human-induced processes and to what extent to natural variability. Standard methods, such as linear trend estimates or piecewise linear trends can be inadequate since they may result in erratic, non-systematic results, particularly if different scales of variability are present in each record and various records are to be compared. The Orcadas Antarctic Station (Agentina), with daily surface meteorological observations since April 1903, provides Antarctica´s longest observational record. This study analyzes the Orcadas seasonal surface temperature variability. Multidecadal variability and short term trends are studied to provide an improved assessment of climate evolution and necessary information for the determination of mechanisms driving regional/local change. A combined method using Wavelet Transform (WT), non-linear statistical model approaches and derivative of fits is developed. This methodology is also applied for validation and comparison to the Gomez ice core oxygen isotope record for the 1857-2006 and 1903-2006 time intervals. Significant quasi 50-year and quasi 20-year variability bands were obtained, both for the quarterly and seasonal Orcadas temperature records, with warming (cooling) periods detected between 1903-1912, 1927- 1961 and 1972-2004 (1912-1927 and 1962-1972). If seasons are considered, the only one with a fairly sustained warming is summer, where actual cooling is observed only at the beginning, prior to the early 1930s. Quasi 50-year variability was also detected in the Gomez record. Long periods are obtained in the model fits, longer than the time series, which varied with window length. Though not representing variability cycles, they could represent the best fit of the non-linear, non oscillating asymptotic stationary component of the series, i.e. a non-linear trend.Fil: Zitto, Miguel Eduardo. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Piotrkowski, Rosa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Martín; ArgentinaFil: Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd2015-06info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/44173Zitto, Miguel Eduardo; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Piotrkowski, Rosa; Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo; 110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 36; 2; 6-2015; 809-8230899-84181097-0088CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.4384info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.4384info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:01:11Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/44173instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:01:11.621CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability |
title |
110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability |
spellingShingle |
110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability Zitto, Miguel Eduardo Antarctica Climate Change Surface Temperature Multidecadal Variability Wavelet Transform Temperature Trend |
title_short |
110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability |
title_full |
110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability |
title_fullStr |
110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability |
title_sort |
110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Zitto, Miguel Eduardo Barrucand, Mariana Graciela Piotrkowski, Rosa Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo |
author |
Zitto, Miguel Eduardo |
author_facet |
Zitto, Miguel Eduardo Barrucand, Mariana Graciela Piotrkowski, Rosa Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Barrucand, Mariana Graciela Piotrkowski, Rosa Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Antarctica Climate Change Surface Temperature Multidecadal Variability Wavelet Transform Temperature Trend |
topic |
Antarctica Climate Change Surface Temperature Multidecadal Variability Wavelet Transform Temperature Trend |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
There is growing evidence of significant changes in components of the Antarctic climate system, an important issue given the influence Antarctica has on global climate. It is important to infer to what extent these regional changes could be attributed to human-induced processes and to what extent to natural variability. Standard methods, such as linear trend estimates or piecewise linear trends can be inadequate since they may result in erratic, non-systematic results, particularly if different scales of variability are present in each record and various records are to be compared. The Orcadas Antarctic Station (Agentina), with daily surface meteorological observations since April 1903, provides Antarctica´s longest observational record. This study analyzes the Orcadas seasonal surface temperature variability. Multidecadal variability and short term trends are studied to provide an improved assessment of climate evolution and necessary information for the determination of mechanisms driving regional/local change. A combined method using Wavelet Transform (WT), non-linear statistical model approaches and derivative of fits is developed. This methodology is also applied for validation and comparison to the Gomez ice core oxygen isotope record for the 1857-2006 and 1903-2006 time intervals. Significant quasi 50-year and quasi 20-year variability bands were obtained, both for the quarterly and seasonal Orcadas temperature records, with warming (cooling) periods detected between 1903-1912, 1927- 1961 and 1972-2004 (1912-1927 and 1962-1972). If seasons are considered, the only one with a fairly sustained warming is summer, where actual cooling is observed only at the beginning, prior to the early 1930s. Quasi 50-year variability was also detected in the Gomez record. Long periods are obtained in the model fits, longer than the time series, which varied with window length. Though not representing variability cycles, they could represent the best fit of the non-linear, non oscillating asymptotic stationary component of the series, i.e. a non-linear trend. Fil: Zitto, Miguel Eduardo. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina Fil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina Fil: Piotrkowski, Rosa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Martín; Argentina Fil: Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina |
description |
There is growing evidence of significant changes in components of the Antarctic climate system, an important issue given the influence Antarctica has on global climate. It is important to infer to what extent these regional changes could be attributed to human-induced processes and to what extent to natural variability. Standard methods, such as linear trend estimates or piecewise linear trends can be inadequate since they may result in erratic, non-systematic results, particularly if different scales of variability are present in each record and various records are to be compared. The Orcadas Antarctic Station (Agentina), with daily surface meteorological observations since April 1903, provides Antarctica´s longest observational record. This study analyzes the Orcadas seasonal surface temperature variability. Multidecadal variability and short term trends are studied to provide an improved assessment of climate evolution and necessary information for the determination of mechanisms driving regional/local change. A combined method using Wavelet Transform (WT), non-linear statistical model approaches and derivative of fits is developed. This methodology is also applied for validation and comparison to the Gomez ice core oxygen isotope record for the 1857-2006 and 1903-2006 time intervals. Significant quasi 50-year and quasi 20-year variability bands were obtained, both for the quarterly and seasonal Orcadas temperature records, with warming (cooling) periods detected between 1903-1912, 1927- 1961 and 1972-2004 (1912-1927 and 1962-1972). If seasons are considered, the only one with a fairly sustained warming is summer, where actual cooling is observed only at the beginning, prior to the early 1930s. Quasi 50-year variability was also detected in the Gomez record. Long periods are obtained in the model fits, longer than the time series, which varied with window length. Though not representing variability cycles, they could represent the best fit of the non-linear, non oscillating asymptotic stationary component of the series, i.e. a non-linear trend. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2015-06 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/44173 Zitto, Miguel Eduardo; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Piotrkowski, Rosa; Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo; 110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 36; 2; 6-2015; 809-823 0899-8418 1097-0088 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/44173 |
identifier_str_mv |
Zitto, Miguel Eduardo; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Piotrkowski, Rosa; Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo; 110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 36; 2; 6-2015; 809-823 0899-8418 1097-0088 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.4384 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.4384 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
John Wiley & Sons Ltd |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
John Wiley & Sons Ltd |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
reponame_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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score |
13.070432 |