110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability

Autores
Zitto, Miguel Eduardo; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Piotrkowski, Rosa; Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo
Año de publicación
2015
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
There is growing evidence of significant changes in components of the Antarctic climate system, an important issue given the influence Antarctica has on global climate. It is important to infer to what extent these regional changes could be attributed to human-induced processes and to what extent to natural variability. Standard methods, such as linear trend estimates or piecewise linear trends can be inadequate since they may result in erratic, non-systematic results, particularly if different scales of variability are present in each record and various records are to be compared. The Orcadas Antarctic Station (Agentina), with daily surface meteorological observations since April 1903, provides Antarctica´s longest observational record. This study analyzes the Orcadas seasonal surface temperature variability. Multidecadal variability and short term trends are studied to provide an improved assessment of climate evolution and necessary information for the determination of mechanisms driving regional/local change. A combined method using Wavelet Transform (WT), non-linear statistical model approaches and derivative of fits is developed. This methodology is also applied for validation and comparison to the Gomez ice core oxygen isotope record for the 1857-2006 and 1903-2006 time intervals. Significant quasi 50-year and quasi 20-year variability bands were obtained, both for the quarterly and seasonal Orcadas temperature records, with warming (cooling) periods detected between 1903-1912, 1927- 1961 and 1972-2004 (1912-1927 and 1962-1972). If seasons are considered, the only one with a fairly sustained warming is summer, where actual cooling is observed only at the beginning, prior to the early 1930s. Quasi 50-year variability was also detected in the Gomez record. Long periods are obtained in the model fits, longer than the time series, which varied with window length. Though not representing variability cycles, they could represent the best fit of the non-linear, non oscillating asymptotic stationary component of the series, i.e. a non-linear trend.
Fil: Zitto, Miguel Eduardo. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Piotrkowski, Rosa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Martín; Argentina
Fil: Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Materia
Antarctica
Climate Change
Surface Temperature
Multidecadal Variability
Wavelet Transform
Temperature Trend
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/44173

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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/44173
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling 110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variabilityZitto, Miguel EduardoBarrucand, Mariana GracielaPiotrkowski, RosaCanziani, Pablo OsvaldoAntarcticaClimate ChangeSurface TemperatureMultidecadal VariabilityWavelet TransformTemperature Trendhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1There is growing evidence of significant changes in components of the Antarctic climate system, an important issue given the influence Antarctica has on global climate. It is important to infer to what extent these regional changes could be attributed to human-induced processes and to what extent to natural variability. Standard methods, such as linear trend estimates or piecewise linear trends can be inadequate since they may result in erratic, non-systematic results, particularly if different scales of variability are present in each record and various records are to be compared. The Orcadas Antarctic Station (Agentina), with daily surface meteorological observations since April 1903, provides Antarctica´s longest observational record. This study analyzes the Orcadas seasonal surface temperature variability. Multidecadal variability and short term trends are studied to provide an improved assessment of climate evolution and necessary information for the determination of mechanisms driving regional/local change. A combined method using Wavelet Transform (WT), non-linear statistical model approaches and derivative of fits is developed. This methodology is also applied for validation and comparison to the Gomez ice core oxygen isotope record for the 1857-2006 and 1903-2006 time intervals. Significant quasi 50-year and quasi 20-year variability bands were obtained, both for the quarterly and seasonal Orcadas temperature records, with warming (cooling) periods detected between 1903-1912, 1927- 1961 and 1972-2004 (1912-1927 and 1962-1972). If seasons are considered, the only one with a fairly sustained warming is summer, where actual cooling is observed only at the beginning, prior to the early 1930s. Quasi 50-year variability was also detected in the Gomez record. Long periods are obtained in the model fits, longer than the time series, which varied with window length. Though not representing variability cycles, they could represent the best fit of the non-linear, non oscillating asymptotic stationary component of the series, i.e. a non-linear trend.Fil: Zitto, Miguel Eduardo. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Piotrkowski, Rosa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Martín; ArgentinaFil: Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd2015-06info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/44173Zitto, Miguel Eduardo; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Piotrkowski, Rosa; Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo; 110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 36; 2; 6-2015; 809-8230899-84181097-0088CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.4384info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.4384info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:01:11Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/44173instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:01:11.621CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv 110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability
title 110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability
spellingShingle 110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability
Zitto, Miguel Eduardo
Antarctica
Climate Change
Surface Temperature
Multidecadal Variability
Wavelet Transform
Temperature Trend
title_short 110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability
title_full 110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability
title_fullStr 110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability
title_full_unstemmed 110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability
title_sort 110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Zitto, Miguel Eduardo
Barrucand, Mariana Graciela
Piotrkowski, Rosa
Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo
author Zitto, Miguel Eduardo
author_facet Zitto, Miguel Eduardo
Barrucand, Mariana Graciela
Piotrkowski, Rosa
Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo
author_role author
author2 Barrucand, Mariana Graciela
Piotrkowski, Rosa
Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Antarctica
Climate Change
Surface Temperature
Multidecadal Variability
Wavelet Transform
Temperature Trend
topic Antarctica
Climate Change
Surface Temperature
Multidecadal Variability
Wavelet Transform
Temperature Trend
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv There is growing evidence of significant changes in components of the Antarctic climate system, an important issue given the influence Antarctica has on global climate. It is important to infer to what extent these regional changes could be attributed to human-induced processes and to what extent to natural variability. Standard methods, such as linear trend estimates or piecewise linear trends can be inadequate since they may result in erratic, non-systematic results, particularly if different scales of variability are present in each record and various records are to be compared. The Orcadas Antarctic Station (Agentina), with daily surface meteorological observations since April 1903, provides Antarctica´s longest observational record. This study analyzes the Orcadas seasonal surface temperature variability. Multidecadal variability and short term trends are studied to provide an improved assessment of climate evolution and necessary information for the determination of mechanisms driving regional/local change. A combined method using Wavelet Transform (WT), non-linear statistical model approaches and derivative of fits is developed. This methodology is also applied for validation and comparison to the Gomez ice core oxygen isotope record for the 1857-2006 and 1903-2006 time intervals. Significant quasi 50-year and quasi 20-year variability bands were obtained, both for the quarterly and seasonal Orcadas temperature records, with warming (cooling) periods detected between 1903-1912, 1927- 1961 and 1972-2004 (1912-1927 and 1962-1972). If seasons are considered, the only one with a fairly sustained warming is summer, where actual cooling is observed only at the beginning, prior to the early 1930s. Quasi 50-year variability was also detected in the Gomez record. Long periods are obtained in the model fits, longer than the time series, which varied with window length. Though not representing variability cycles, they could represent the best fit of the non-linear, non oscillating asymptotic stationary component of the series, i.e. a non-linear trend.
Fil: Zitto, Miguel Eduardo. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Piotrkowski, Rosa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Martín; Argentina
Fil: Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
description There is growing evidence of significant changes in components of the Antarctic climate system, an important issue given the influence Antarctica has on global climate. It is important to infer to what extent these regional changes could be attributed to human-induced processes and to what extent to natural variability. Standard methods, such as linear trend estimates or piecewise linear trends can be inadequate since they may result in erratic, non-systematic results, particularly if different scales of variability are present in each record and various records are to be compared. The Orcadas Antarctic Station (Agentina), with daily surface meteorological observations since April 1903, provides Antarctica´s longest observational record. This study analyzes the Orcadas seasonal surface temperature variability. Multidecadal variability and short term trends are studied to provide an improved assessment of climate evolution and necessary information for the determination of mechanisms driving regional/local change. A combined method using Wavelet Transform (WT), non-linear statistical model approaches and derivative of fits is developed. This methodology is also applied for validation and comparison to the Gomez ice core oxygen isotope record for the 1857-2006 and 1903-2006 time intervals. Significant quasi 50-year and quasi 20-year variability bands were obtained, both for the quarterly and seasonal Orcadas temperature records, with warming (cooling) periods detected between 1903-1912, 1927- 1961 and 1972-2004 (1912-1927 and 1962-1972). If seasons are considered, the only one with a fairly sustained warming is summer, where actual cooling is observed only at the beginning, prior to the early 1930s. Quasi 50-year variability was also detected in the Gomez record. Long periods are obtained in the model fits, longer than the time series, which varied with window length. Though not representing variability cycles, they could represent the best fit of the non-linear, non oscillating asymptotic stationary component of the series, i.e. a non-linear trend.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-06
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/44173
Zitto, Miguel Eduardo; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Piotrkowski, Rosa; Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo; 110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 36; 2; 6-2015; 809-823
0899-8418
1097-0088
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/44173
identifier_str_mv Zitto, Miguel Eduardo; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Piotrkowski, Rosa; Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo; 110 years of temperature observations at Orcadas Antarctic Station: multidecadal variability; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 36; 2; 6-2015; 809-823
0899-8418
1097-0088
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.4384
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.4384
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Ltd
publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Ltd
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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