Agricultural flash droughts and their impact on crop yields in southeastern South America

Autores
Lovino, Miguel Angel; Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina; Masaro, Lumila; Müller, Omar Vicente; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Berbery, Ernesto H.
Año de publicación
2025
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
This study investigates the characteristics of agricultural flash droughts (AFDs) and their impacts on critical growth periods of soybean and corn in southeastern South America (SESA). Using ERA5 data from 1960 to 2022, we examine AFD frequency, duration, intensity, trends, seasonality, life cycle, and the influence of land–atmosphere interactions. Historical crop data, spanning different time periods across SESA countries, are analyzed to assess how the spatiotemporal evolution and varying life cycles of AFDs affect crop yields. The highest AFD frequencies (3–8 events per decade) occur in the central portion of SESA. These rapidly intensifying events often evolve into seasonal droughts lasting 1.5–3 months. Although area-averaged AFD frequency shows no significant change in central SESA, positive trends are noticeable in southern Brazil and Uruguay. Towards the north of SESA, AFDs are less frequent, with 1–3 episodes per decade, although the frequency has significantly increased since 1970. AFDs tend to last over 3 months and reach higher intensity. Land–atmosphere feedback mechanisms are reflected in high positive vapor pressure deficit and temperature anomalies that exacerbate soil moisture deficits despite a relatively stable precipitation deficit, accelerating AFD intensification periods. AFDs typically impact smaller areas, while slow-evolving droughts affect larger regions. However, AFDs´ timing during the critical growth periods of the crops can lead to substantial yield losses. In central SESA, AFDs mainly occur between November and January, affecting both crops during their flowering and grain filling in December and January. In northern SESA, AFDs occur later, from February to April, primarily impacting second-season corn. The overall impact on crop yields depends on the duration, spatial extent, and intensity of the drought after its intensification.
Fil: Lovino, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Masaro, Lumila. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Müller, Omar Vicente. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Berbery, Ernesto H.. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Materia
Agricultural flash droughts
Crops
Soil moisture
Land–atmosphere interactions
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/282588
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Agricultural flash droughts and their impact on crop yields in southeastern South AmericaLovino, Miguel AngelPierrestegui, Maria JosefinaMasaro, LumilaMüller, Omar VicenteMuller, Gabriela VivianaBerbery, Ernesto H.Agricultural flash droughtsCropsSoil moistureLand–atmosphere interactionshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1This study investigates the characteristics of agricultural flash droughts (AFDs) and their impacts on critical growth periods of soybean and corn in southeastern South America (SESA). Using ERA5 data from 1960 to 2022, we examine AFD frequency, duration, intensity, trends, seasonality, life cycle, and the influence of land–atmosphere interactions. Historical crop data, spanning different time periods across SESA countries, are analyzed to assess how the spatiotemporal evolution and varying life cycles of AFDs affect crop yields. The highest AFD frequencies (3–8 events per decade) occur in the central portion of SESA. These rapidly intensifying events often evolve into seasonal droughts lasting 1.5–3 months. Although area-averaged AFD frequency shows no significant change in central SESA, positive trends are noticeable in southern Brazil and Uruguay. Towards the north of SESA, AFDs are less frequent, with 1–3 episodes per decade, although the frequency has significantly increased since 1970. AFDs tend to last over 3 months and reach higher intensity. Land–atmosphere feedback mechanisms are reflected in high positive vapor pressure deficit and temperature anomalies that exacerbate soil moisture deficits despite a relatively stable precipitation deficit, accelerating AFD intensification periods. AFDs typically impact smaller areas, while slow-evolving droughts affect larger regions. However, AFDs´ timing during the critical growth periods of the crops can lead to substantial yield losses. In central SESA, AFDs mainly occur between November and January, affecting both crops during their flowering and grain filling in December and January. In northern SESA, AFDs occur later, from February to April, primarily impacting second-season corn. The overall impact on crop yields depends on the duration, spatial extent, and intensity of the drought after its intensification.Fil: Lovino, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; ArgentinaFil: Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; ArgentinaFil: Masaro, Lumila. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; ArgentinaFil: Müller, Omar Vicente. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; ArgentinaFil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; ArgentinaFil: Berbery, Ernesto H.. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; ArgentinaIOP Publishing2025-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/282588Lovino, Miguel Angel; Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina; Masaro, Lumila; Müller, Omar Vicente; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; et al.; Agricultural flash droughts and their impact on crop yields in southeastern South America; IOP Publishing; Environmental Research Letters; 20; 5; 4-2025; 1-151748-9326CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adcd88info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/adcd88info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2026-03-31T14:57:21Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/282588instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982026-03-31 14:57:22.292CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Agricultural flash droughts and their impact on crop yields in southeastern South America
title Agricultural flash droughts and their impact on crop yields in southeastern South America
spellingShingle Agricultural flash droughts and their impact on crop yields in southeastern South America
Lovino, Miguel Angel
Agricultural flash droughts
Crops
Soil moisture
Land–atmosphere interactions
title_short Agricultural flash droughts and their impact on crop yields in southeastern South America
title_full Agricultural flash droughts and their impact on crop yields in southeastern South America
title_fullStr Agricultural flash droughts and their impact on crop yields in southeastern South America
title_full_unstemmed Agricultural flash droughts and their impact on crop yields in southeastern South America
title_sort Agricultural flash droughts and their impact on crop yields in southeastern South America
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Lovino, Miguel Angel
Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina
Masaro, Lumila
Müller, Omar Vicente
Muller, Gabriela Viviana
Berbery, Ernesto H.
author Lovino, Miguel Angel
author_facet Lovino, Miguel Angel
Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina
Masaro, Lumila
Müller, Omar Vicente
Muller, Gabriela Viviana
Berbery, Ernesto H.
author_role author
author2 Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina
Masaro, Lumila
Müller, Omar Vicente
Muller, Gabriela Viviana
Berbery, Ernesto H.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Agricultural flash droughts
Crops
Soil moisture
Land–atmosphere interactions
topic Agricultural flash droughts
Crops
Soil moisture
Land–atmosphere interactions
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv This study investigates the characteristics of agricultural flash droughts (AFDs) and their impacts on critical growth periods of soybean and corn in southeastern South America (SESA). Using ERA5 data from 1960 to 2022, we examine AFD frequency, duration, intensity, trends, seasonality, life cycle, and the influence of land–atmosphere interactions. Historical crop data, spanning different time periods across SESA countries, are analyzed to assess how the spatiotemporal evolution and varying life cycles of AFDs affect crop yields. The highest AFD frequencies (3–8 events per decade) occur in the central portion of SESA. These rapidly intensifying events often evolve into seasonal droughts lasting 1.5–3 months. Although area-averaged AFD frequency shows no significant change in central SESA, positive trends are noticeable in southern Brazil and Uruguay. Towards the north of SESA, AFDs are less frequent, with 1–3 episodes per decade, although the frequency has significantly increased since 1970. AFDs tend to last over 3 months and reach higher intensity. Land–atmosphere feedback mechanisms are reflected in high positive vapor pressure deficit and temperature anomalies that exacerbate soil moisture deficits despite a relatively stable precipitation deficit, accelerating AFD intensification periods. AFDs typically impact smaller areas, while slow-evolving droughts affect larger regions. However, AFDs´ timing during the critical growth periods of the crops can lead to substantial yield losses. In central SESA, AFDs mainly occur between November and January, affecting both crops during their flowering and grain filling in December and January. In northern SESA, AFDs occur later, from February to April, primarily impacting second-season corn. The overall impact on crop yields depends on the duration, spatial extent, and intensity of the drought after its intensification.
Fil: Lovino, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Masaro, Lumila. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Müller, Omar Vicente. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Berbery, Ernesto H.. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
description This study investigates the characteristics of agricultural flash droughts (AFDs) and their impacts on critical growth periods of soybean and corn in southeastern South America (SESA). Using ERA5 data from 1960 to 2022, we examine AFD frequency, duration, intensity, trends, seasonality, life cycle, and the influence of land–atmosphere interactions. Historical crop data, spanning different time periods across SESA countries, are analyzed to assess how the spatiotemporal evolution and varying life cycles of AFDs affect crop yields. The highest AFD frequencies (3–8 events per decade) occur in the central portion of SESA. These rapidly intensifying events often evolve into seasonal droughts lasting 1.5–3 months. Although area-averaged AFD frequency shows no significant change in central SESA, positive trends are noticeable in southern Brazil and Uruguay. Towards the north of SESA, AFDs are less frequent, with 1–3 episodes per decade, although the frequency has significantly increased since 1970. AFDs tend to last over 3 months and reach higher intensity. Land–atmosphere feedback mechanisms are reflected in high positive vapor pressure deficit and temperature anomalies that exacerbate soil moisture deficits despite a relatively stable precipitation deficit, accelerating AFD intensification periods. AFDs typically impact smaller areas, while slow-evolving droughts affect larger regions. However, AFDs´ timing during the critical growth periods of the crops can lead to substantial yield losses. In central SESA, AFDs mainly occur between November and January, affecting both crops during their flowering and grain filling in December and January. In northern SESA, AFDs occur later, from February to April, primarily impacting second-season corn. The overall impact on crop yields depends on the duration, spatial extent, and intensity of the drought after its intensification.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025-04
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/282588
Lovino, Miguel Angel; Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina; Masaro, Lumila; Müller, Omar Vicente; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; et al.; Agricultural flash droughts and their impact on crop yields in southeastern South America; IOP Publishing; Environmental Research Letters; 20; 5; 4-2025; 1-15
1748-9326
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/282588
identifier_str_mv Lovino, Miguel Angel; Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina; Masaro, Lumila; Müller, Omar Vicente; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; et al.; Agricultural flash droughts and their impact on crop yields in southeastern South America; IOP Publishing; Environmental Research Letters; 20; 5; 4-2025; 1-15
1748-9326
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adcd88
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/adcd88
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv IOP Publishing
publisher.none.fl_str_mv IOP Publishing
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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