Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment

• Autores: Essl, Franz; Lenzner, Bernd; Bacher, Sven; Bailey, Sarah; Capinha, Cesar; Daehler, Curtis; Dullinger, Stefan; Genovesi, Piero; Hui, Cang; Hulme, Philip E.; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Kühn, Ingolf; Leung, Brian; Liebhold, Andrew; Liu, Chunlong; MacIsaac, Hugh J.; Meyerson, Laura A.; Nuñez, Martin Andres; Pauchard, Aníbal; Pyšek, Petr; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Richardson, David M.; Roy, Helen Elizabeth; Ruiz, Gregory M.; Russell, James C.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Sax, Dov F.; Scalera, Riccardo; Seebens, Hanno; Springborn, Michael; Turbelin, Anna; van Kleunen, Mark; von Holle, Betsy; Winter, Marten; Zenni, Rafael D.; Mattsson, Brady J.; Roura Pascual, Nuria
• Año de publicación: 2020
• Idioma: inglés
• Tipo de recurso: artículo
• Materia: BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS; EXPERT SURVEY; GLOBALIZATION; IMPACTS; MANAGEMENT; POLICY; SCENARIOS; UNCERTAINTIES
• Institución: Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%?30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions?transport, climate change and socio-economic change?were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Fil: Essl, Franz. Universidad de Viena; Austria. Stellenbosch University;
Fil: Lenzner, Bernd. Universidad de Viena; Austria
Fil: Bacher, Sven. University of Fribourg; Suiza
Fil: Bailey, Sarah. Great Lakes Laboratory For Fisheries An Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries And Oceans Canada; Canadá
Fil: Capinha, Cesar. Universidade Nova de Lisboa; Portugal
Fil: Daehler, Curtis. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos
Fil: Dullinger, Stefan. Universidad de Viena; Austria
Fil: Genovesi, Piero. Institute for Environmental Protection and Research; Italia. Stellenbosch University; . Iucn Ssc Invasive Species Specialist Group; Italia
Fil: Hui, Cang. Stellenbosch University; . African Institute for Mathematical Sciences; Sudáfrica. International Initiative for Theoretical Ecology; Reino Unido
Fil: Hulme, Philip E.. Lincoln University.; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: Jeschke, Jonathan M.. Leibniz - Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries; Alemania. Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research; Alemania. Freie Universität Berlin; Alemania
Fil: Katsanevakis, Stelios. University of the Aegean; Grecia
Fil: Kühn, Ingolf. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research; Alemania. German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research; Alemania. Martin Luther University Halle; Alemania
Fil: Leung, Brian. Université Mcgill; Canadá
Fil: Liebhold, Andrew. US Forest Service Northern Research Station; Estados Unidos. Czech University of Life Sciences; República Checa
Fil: Liu, Chunlong. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China. Leibniz - Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries; Alemania. Freie Universität Berlin; Alemania
Fil: MacIsaac, Hugh J.. Great Lakes Institute For Environmental Research; Canadá
Fil: Meyerson, Laura A.. The University of Rhode Island; Estados Unidos
Fil: Nuñez, Martin Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones En Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Subsede San Martín de Los Andes-inibioma | Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universitario Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones En Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Subsede San Martín de Los Andes-inibioma.; Argentina
Fil: Pauchard, Aníbal. Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad; Chile. Universidad de Concepción; Chile
Fil: Pyšek, Petr. Charles University; República Checa. Czech Academy of Sciences;
Fil: Rabitsch, Wolfgang. Environment Agency Austria; Austria
Fil: Richardson, David M.. Stellenbosch University;
Fil: Roy, Helen Elizabeth. UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology; Reino Unido
Fil: Ruiz, Gregory M.. Smithsonian Environmental Research Center;
Fil: Russell, James C.. University of Auckland; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: Sanders, Nathan J.. University of Vermont; Estados Unidos
Fil: Sax, Dov F.. University Brown; Estados Unidos
Fil: Scalera, Riccardo. Iucn Ssc Invasive Species Specialist Group; Italia
Fil: Seebens, Hanno. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre; Alemania
Fil: Springborn, Michael. University of California at Davis; Estados Unidos
Fil: Turbelin, Anna. Universite Paris-saclay; Francia. King's College London; Reino Unido
Fil: van Kleunen, Mark. Universität Konstanz; Alemania. Taizhou University; China
Fil: von Holle, Betsy. National Science Foundation; Estados Unidos
Fil: Winter, Marten. German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research; Alemania
Fil: Zenni, Rafael D.. Universidad Federal de Lavras; Brasil
Fil: Mattsson, Brady J.. Universitat Fur Bodenkultur Wien; Austria
Fil: Roura Pascual, Nuria. Universidad de Girona; España