Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the core crop region of the humid pampa, Argentina

Autores
Müller, Gabriela V.; Lovino, Miguel Angel; Sgroi, Leandro Carlos
Año de publicación
2021
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The core crop region of the Humid Pampa is one of the most productive agricultural lands around the world and depends highly on climate conditions. This study assesses climate variability, climate extremes, and observed and projected climate changes there, using 1911–2019 observations and CMIP5 model simulations. Since 1970, the annual mean temperature has risen by 1 °C and the mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures by 2 and 0.5 °C, respectively. The frequency of warm days and nights increased, and cold days and nights decreased. Heatwaves became longer and more intense, and cold waves decreased with less frost events. Annual precipitation increased by 10% from 1911, mainly in summer, and years with excess precipitation outnumbered those with a deficit. Both intense precipitation events and consecutive dry days grew, suggesting more annual precipitation falling on fewer days. Projections show a warming of 1 ºC by 2035, regardless of the scenario. From then on until 2100, mean temperature will increase by 2 and 3–3.5 °C in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Annual precipitation will grow 8 and 16% from current values by 2100 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. No major precipitation changes are projected in the RCP2.6 scenario.
Fil: Müller, Gabriela V.. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Lovino, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Sgroi, Leandro Carlos. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Materia
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE EXTREMES
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
FUTURE SCENARIOS
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
HUMID PAMPA
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/167501
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/167501
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the core crop region of the humid pampa, ArgentinaMüller, Gabriela V.Lovino, Miguel AngelSgroi, Leandro CarlosCLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE EXTREMESCLIMATE VARIABILITYFUTURE SCENARIOSGLOBAL CLIMATE MODELSHUMID PAMPAhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The core crop region of the Humid Pampa is one of the most productive agricultural lands around the world and depends highly on climate conditions. This study assesses climate variability, climate extremes, and observed and projected climate changes there, using 1911–2019 observations and CMIP5 model simulations. Since 1970, the annual mean temperature has risen by 1 °C and the mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures by 2 and 0.5 °C, respectively. The frequency of warm days and nights increased, and cold days and nights decreased. Heatwaves became longer and more intense, and cold waves decreased with less frost events. Annual precipitation increased by 10% from 1911, mainly in summer, and years with excess precipitation outnumbered those with a deficit. Both intense precipitation events and consecutive dry days grew, suggesting more annual precipitation falling on fewer days. Projections show a warming of 1 ºC by 2035, regardless of the scenario. From then on until 2100, mean temperature will increase by 2 and 3–3.5 °C in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Annual precipitation will grow 8 and 16% from current values by 2100 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. No major precipitation changes are projected in the RCP2.6 scenario.Fil: Müller, Gabriela V.. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; ArgentinaFil: Lovino, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; ArgentinaFil: Sgroi, Leandro Carlos. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; ArgentinaMDPI AG2021-02info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/167501Müller, Gabriela V.; Lovino, Miguel Angel; Sgroi, Leandro Carlos; Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the core crop region of the humid pampa, Argentina; MDPI AG; Climate; 9; 3; 2-2021; 1-252225-1154CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/3/40info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3390/cli9030040info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:46:14Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/167501instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:46:15.219CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the core crop region of the humid pampa, Argentina
title Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the core crop region of the humid pampa, Argentina
spellingShingle Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the core crop region of the humid pampa, Argentina
Müller, Gabriela V.
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE EXTREMES
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
FUTURE SCENARIOS
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
HUMID PAMPA
title_short Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the core crop region of the humid pampa, Argentina
title_full Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the core crop region of the humid pampa, Argentina
title_fullStr Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the core crop region of the humid pampa, Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the core crop region of the humid pampa, Argentina
title_sort Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the core crop region of the humid pampa, Argentina
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Müller, Gabriela V.
Lovino, Miguel Angel
Sgroi, Leandro Carlos
author Müller, Gabriela V.
author_facet Müller, Gabriela V.
Lovino, Miguel Angel
Sgroi, Leandro Carlos
author_role author
author2 Lovino, Miguel Angel
Sgroi, Leandro Carlos
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE EXTREMES
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
FUTURE SCENARIOS
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
HUMID PAMPA
topic CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE EXTREMES
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
FUTURE SCENARIOS
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
HUMID PAMPA
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The core crop region of the Humid Pampa is one of the most productive agricultural lands around the world and depends highly on climate conditions. This study assesses climate variability, climate extremes, and observed and projected climate changes there, using 1911–2019 observations and CMIP5 model simulations. Since 1970, the annual mean temperature has risen by 1 °C and the mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures by 2 and 0.5 °C, respectively. The frequency of warm days and nights increased, and cold days and nights decreased. Heatwaves became longer and more intense, and cold waves decreased with less frost events. Annual precipitation increased by 10% from 1911, mainly in summer, and years with excess precipitation outnumbered those with a deficit. Both intense precipitation events and consecutive dry days grew, suggesting more annual precipitation falling on fewer days. Projections show a warming of 1 ºC by 2035, regardless of the scenario. From then on until 2100, mean temperature will increase by 2 and 3–3.5 °C in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Annual precipitation will grow 8 and 16% from current values by 2100 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. No major precipitation changes are projected in the RCP2.6 scenario.
Fil: Müller, Gabriela V.. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Lovino, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Sgroi, Leandro Carlos. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
description The core crop region of the Humid Pampa is one of the most productive agricultural lands around the world and depends highly on climate conditions. This study assesses climate variability, climate extremes, and observed and projected climate changes there, using 1911–2019 observations and CMIP5 model simulations. Since 1970, the annual mean temperature has risen by 1 °C and the mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures by 2 and 0.5 °C, respectively. The frequency of warm days and nights increased, and cold days and nights decreased. Heatwaves became longer and more intense, and cold waves decreased with less frost events. Annual precipitation increased by 10% from 1911, mainly in summer, and years with excess precipitation outnumbered those with a deficit. Both intense precipitation events and consecutive dry days grew, suggesting more annual precipitation falling on fewer days. Projections show a warming of 1 ºC by 2035, regardless of the scenario. From then on until 2100, mean temperature will increase by 2 and 3–3.5 °C in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Annual precipitation will grow 8 and 16% from current values by 2100 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. No major precipitation changes are projected in the RCP2.6 scenario.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-02
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/167501
Müller, Gabriela V.; Lovino, Miguel Angel; Sgroi, Leandro Carlos; Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the core crop region of the humid pampa, Argentina; MDPI AG; Climate; 9; 3; 2-2021; 1-25
2225-1154
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/167501
identifier_str_mv Müller, Gabriela V.; Lovino, Miguel Angel; Sgroi, Leandro Carlos; Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the core crop region of the humid pampa, Argentina; MDPI AG; Climate; 9; 3; 2-2021; 1-25
2225-1154
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/3/40
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3390/cli9030040
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI AG
publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI AG
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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