Development and application of a dynamic transmission model of health systems’ preparedness and response to COVID-19 in twenty-six Latin American and Caribbean countries
- Autores
- Santoro, Adrián Gabriel; López Osornio, Alejandro; Williams, Iván; Wachs, Martín; Cejas, Cintia; Havela, Maisa; Bardach, Ariel Esteban; López, Analía; Augustovski, Federico Ariel; Pichón Riviere, Andrés; Rubinstein, Adolfo Luis
- Año de publicación
- 2022
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- The global impact of COVID-19 has challenged health systems across the world. This situation highlighted the need to develop policies based on scientific evidence to prepare the health systems and mitigate the pandemic. In this scenario, governments were urged to predict the impact of the measures they were implementing, how they related to the population’s behavior, and the capacity of health systems to respond to the pandemic. The overarching aim of this research was to develop a customizable and open-source tool to predict the impact of the expansion of COVID-19 on the level of preparedness of the health systems of different Latin American and the Caribbean countries, with two main objectives. Firstly, to estimate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and the preparedness and response capacity of health systems in those countries, based on different scenarios and public policies implemented to control, mitigate, or suppress the spread of the epidemic. Secondly, to facilitate policy makers’ decisions by allowing the model to adjust its parameters according to the specific pandemic trajectory and policy context. How many infections and deaths are estimated per day?; When are the peaks of cases and deaths expected, according to the different scenarios?; Which occupancy rate will ICU services have along the epidemiological curve?; When is the optimal time increase restrictions in order to prevent saturation of ICU beds?, are some of the key questions that the model can respond, and is publicly accessible through the following link: http://shinyapps.iecs.org.ar/modelo-covid19/. This open-access and open code tool is based on a SEIR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered). Using a deterministic epidemiological model, it allows to frame potential scenarios for long periods, providing valuable information on the dynamics of transmission and how it could impact on health systems through multiple customized configurations adapted to specific characteristics of each country.
Fil: Santoro, Adrián Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentina
Fil: López Osornio, Alejandro. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina
Fil: Williams, Iván. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina
Fil: Wachs, Martín. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina
Fil: Cejas, Cintia. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina
Fil: Havela, Maisa. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina
Fil: Bardach, Ariel Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentina
Fil: López, Analía. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina
Fil: Augustovski, Federico Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentina
Fil: Pichón Riviere, Andrés. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina
Fil: Rubinstein, Adolfo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentina - Materia
-
COVID-19
PANDEMICS
PUBLIC POLICY
HEALTH CARE POLICY
EPIDEMIOLOGY
INTENSIVE CARE UNITS
CARIBBEAN
PUBLIC AND OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/215334
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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Development and application of a dynamic transmission model of health systems’ preparedness and response to COVID-19 in twenty-six Latin American and Caribbean countriesSantoro, Adrián GabrielLópez Osornio, AlejandroWilliams, IvánWachs, MartínCejas, CintiaHavela, MaisaBardach, Ariel EstebanLópez, AnalíaAugustovski, Federico ArielPichón Riviere, AndrésRubinstein, Adolfo LuisCOVID-19PANDEMICSPUBLIC POLICYHEALTH CARE POLICYEPIDEMIOLOGYINTENSIVE CARE UNITSCARIBBEANPUBLIC AND OCCUPATIONAL HEALTHhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3The global impact of COVID-19 has challenged health systems across the world. This situation highlighted the need to develop policies based on scientific evidence to prepare the health systems and mitigate the pandemic. In this scenario, governments were urged to predict the impact of the measures they were implementing, how they related to the population’s behavior, and the capacity of health systems to respond to the pandemic. The overarching aim of this research was to develop a customizable and open-source tool to predict the impact of the expansion of COVID-19 on the level of preparedness of the health systems of different Latin American and the Caribbean countries, with two main objectives. Firstly, to estimate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and the preparedness and response capacity of health systems in those countries, based on different scenarios and public policies implemented to control, mitigate, or suppress the spread of the epidemic. Secondly, to facilitate policy makers’ decisions by allowing the model to adjust its parameters according to the specific pandemic trajectory and policy context. How many infections and deaths are estimated per day?; When are the peaks of cases and deaths expected, according to the different scenarios?; Which occupancy rate will ICU services have along the epidemiological curve?; When is the optimal time increase restrictions in order to prevent saturation of ICU beds?, are some of the key questions that the model can respond, and is publicly accessible through the following link: http://shinyapps.iecs.org.ar/modelo-covid19/. This open-access and open code tool is based on a SEIR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered). Using a deterministic epidemiological model, it allows to frame potential scenarios for long periods, providing valuable information on the dynamics of transmission and how it could impact on health systems through multiple customized configurations adapted to specific characteristics of each country.Fil: Santoro, Adrián Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: López Osornio, Alejandro. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Williams, Iván. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; ArgentinaFil: Wachs, Martín. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Cejas, Cintia. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Havela, Maisa. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Bardach, Ariel Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: López, Analía. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Augustovski, Federico Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Pichón Riviere, Andrés. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Rubinstein, Adolfo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaPublic Library of Science2022-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/215334Santoro, Adrián Gabriel; López Osornio, Alejandro; Williams, Iván; Wachs, Martín; Cejas, Cintia; et al.; Development and application of a dynamic transmission model of health systems’ preparedness and response to COVID-19 in twenty-six Latin American and Caribbean countries; Public Library of Science; PLOS Global Public Health; 2; 3; 3-2022; 1-132767-3375CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000186info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000186info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:38:52Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/215334instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:38:52.905CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Development and application of a dynamic transmission model of health systems’ preparedness and response to COVID-19 in twenty-six Latin American and Caribbean countries |
title |
Development and application of a dynamic transmission model of health systems’ preparedness and response to COVID-19 in twenty-six Latin American and Caribbean countries |
spellingShingle |
Development and application of a dynamic transmission model of health systems’ preparedness and response to COVID-19 in twenty-six Latin American and Caribbean countries Santoro, Adrián Gabriel COVID-19 PANDEMICS PUBLIC POLICY HEALTH CARE POLICY EPIDEMIOLOGY INTENSIVE CARE UNITS CARIBBEAN PUBLIC AND OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH |
title_short |
Development and application of a dynamic transmission model of health systems’ preparedness and response to COVID-19 in twenty-six Latin American and Caribbean countries |
title_full |
Development and application of a dynamic transmission model of health systems’ preparedness and response to COVID-19 in twenty-six Latin American and Caribbean countries |
title_fullStr |
Development and application of a dynamic transmission model of health systems’ preparedness and response to COVID-19 in twenty-six Latin American and Caribbean countries |
title_full_unstemmed |
Development and application of a dynamic transmission model of health systems’ preparedness and response to COVID-19 in twenty-six Latin American and Caribbean countries |
title_sort |
Development and application of a dynamic transmission model of health systems’ preparedness and response to COVID-19 in twenty-six Latin American and Caribbean countries |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Santoro, Adrián Gabriel López Osornio, Alejandro Williams, Iván Wachs, Martín Cejas, Cintia Havela, Maisa Bardach, Ariel Esteban López, Analía Augustovski, Federico Ariel Pichón Riviere, Andrés Rubinstein, Adolfo Luis |
author |
Santoro, Adrián Gabriel |
author_facet |
Santoro, Adrián Gabriel López Osornio, Alejandro Williams, Iván Wachs, Martín Cejas, Cintia Havela, Maisa Bardach, Ariel Esteban López, Analía Augustovski, Federico Ariel Pichón Riviere, Andrés Rubinstein, Adolfo Luis |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
López Osornio, Alejandro Williams, Iván Wachs, Martín Cejas, Cintia Havela, Maisa Bardach, Ariel Esteban López, Analía Augustovski, Federico Ariel Pichón Riviere, Andrés Rubinstein, Adolfo Luis |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 PANDEMICS PUBLIC POLICY HEALTH CARE POLICY EPIDEMIOLOGY INTENSIVE CARE UNITS CARIBBEAN PUBLIC AND OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH |
topic |
COVID-19 PANDEMICS PUBLIC POLICY HEALTH CARE POLICY EPIDEMIOLOGY INTENSIVE CARE UNITS CARIBBEAN PUBLIC AND OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
The global impact of COVID-19 has challenged health systems across the world. This situation highlighted the need to develop policies based on scientific evidence to prepare the health systems and mitigate the pandemic. In this scenario, governments were urged to predict the impact of the measures they were implementing, how they related to the population’s behavior, and the capacity of health systems to respond to the pandemic. The overarching aim of this research was to develop a customizable and open-source tool to predict the impact of the expansion of COVID-19 on the level of preparedness of the health systems of different Latin American and the Caribbean countries, with two main objectives. Firstly, to estimate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and the preparedness and response capacity of health systems in those countries, based on different scenarios and public policies implemented to control, mitigate, or suppress the spread of the epidemic. Secondly, to facilitate policy makers’ decisions by allowing the model to adjust its parameters according to the specific pandemic trajectory and policy context. How many infections and deaths are estimated per day?; When are the peaks of cases and deaths expected, according to the different scenarios?; Which occupancy rate will ICU services have along the epidemiological curve?; When is the optimal time increase restrictions in order to prevent saturation of ICU beds?, are some of the key questions that the model can respond, and is publicly accessible through the following link: http://shinyapps.iecs.org.ar/modelo-covid19/. This open-access and open code tool is based on a SEIR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered). Using a deterministic epidemiological model, it allows to frame potential scenarios for long periods, providing valuable information on the dynamics of transmission and how it could impact on health systems through multiple customized configurations adapted to specific characteristics of each country. Fil: Santoro, Adrián Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentina Fil: López Osornio, Alejandro. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina Fil: Williams, Iván. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina Fil: Wachs, Martín. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina Fil: Cejas, Cintia. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina Fil: Havela, Maisa. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina Fil: Bardach, Ariel Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentina Fil: López, Analía. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina Fil: Augustovski, Federico Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentina Fil: Pichón Riviere, Andrés. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina Fil: Rubinstein, Adolfo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentina |
description |
The global impact of COVID-19 has challenged health systems across the world. This situation highlighted the need to develop policies based on scientific evidence to prepare the health systems and mitigate the pandemic. In this scenario, governments were urged to predict the impact of the measures they were implementing, how they related to the population’s behavior, and the capacity of health systems to respond to the pandemic. The overarching aim of this research was to develop a customizable and open-source tool to predict the impact of the expansion of COVID-19 on the level of preparedness of the health systems of different Latin American and the Caribbean countries, with two main objectives. Firstly, to estimate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and the preparedness and response capacity of health systems in those countries, based on different scenarios and public policies implemented to control, mitigate, or suppress the spread of the epidemic. Secondly, to facilitate policy makers’ decisions by allowing the model to adjust its parameters according to the specific pandemic trajectory and policy context. How many infections and deaths are estimated per day?; When are the peaks of cases and deaths expected, according to the different scenarios?; Which occupancy rate will ICU services have along the epidemiological curve?; When is the optimal time increase restrictions in order to prevent saturation of ICU beds?, are some of the key questions that the model can respond, and is publicly accessible through the following link: http://shinyapps.iecs.org.ar/modelo-covid19/. This open-access and open code tool is based on a SEIR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered). Using a deterministic epidemiological model, it allows to frame potential scenarios for long periods, providing valuable information on the dynamics of transmission and how it could impact on health systems through multiple customized configurations adapted to specific characteristics of each country. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-03 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/215334 Santoro, Adrián Gabriel; López Osornio, Alejandro; Williams, Iván; Wachs, Martín; Cejas, Cintia; et al.; Development and application of a dynamic transmission model of health systems’ preparedness and response to COVID-19 in twenty-six Latin American and Caribbean countries; Public Library of Science; PLOS Global Public Health; 2; 3; 3-2022; 1-13 2767-3375 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/215334 |
identifier_str_mv |
Santoro, Adrián Gabriel; López Osornio, Alejandro; Williams, Iván; Wachs, Martín; Cejas, Cintia; et al.; Development and application of a dynamic transmission model of health systems’ preparedness and response to COVID-19 in twenty-six Latin American and Caribbean countries; Public Library of Science; PLOS Global Public Health; 2; 3; 3-2022; 1-13 2767-3375 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000186 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000186 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Public Library of Science |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Public Library of Science |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
reponame_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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1844613229054001152 |
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13.070432 |