Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina

Autores
López, María Soledad; Gomez, Andrea Alejandra; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Walker, Elisabet; Robert, Michael A.; Estallo, Elizabet Lilia
Año de publicación
2023
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
BACKGROUND: Climate change is an important driver of the increased spread of dengue from tropical and subtropical regions to temperate areas around the world. Climate variables such as temperature and precipitation influence the dengue vector’s biology, physiology, abundance, and life cycle. Thus, an analysis is needed of changes in climate change and their possible relationships with dengue incidence and the growing occurrence of epidemics recorded in recent decades. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the increasing incidence of dengue driven by climate change at the southern limits of dengue virus transmission in South America. METHODS: We analyzed the evolution of climatological, epidemiological, and biological variables by comparing a period of time without the presence of dengue cases (1976–1997) to a more recent period of time in which dengue cases and important outbreaks occurred (1998–2020). In our analysis, we consider climate variables associated with temperature and precipitation, epidemiological variables such as the number of reported dengue cases and incidence of dengue, and biological variables such as the optimal temperature ranges for transmission of dengue vector. RESULTS: The presence of dengue cases and epidemic outbreaks are observed to be consistent with positive trends in temperature and anomalies from long-term means. Dengue cases do not seem to be associated with precipitation trends and anomalies. The number of days with optimal temperatures for dengue transmission increased from the period without dengue cases to the period with occurrences of dengue cases. The number of months with optimal transmission temperatures also increased between periods but to a lesser extent. CONCLUSIONS: The higher incidence of dengue virus and its expansion to different regions of Argentina seem to be associated with temperature increases in the country during the past two decades. The active surveillance of both the vector and associated arboviruses, together with continued meteorological data collection, will facilitate the assessment and prediction of future epidemics that use trends in the accelerated changes in climate. Such surveillance should go hand in hand with efforts to improve the understanding of the mechanisms driving the geographic expansion of dengue and other arboviruses beyond the current limits. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11616.
Fil: López, María Soledad. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Gomez, Andrea Alejandra. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Walker, Elisabet. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Robert, Michael A.. Virginia Polytechnic Institute; Estados Unidos
Fil: Estallo, Elizabet Lilia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones Entomológicas de Córdoba; Argentina
Materia
CLIMATE CHANGE
DENGUE
CLIMATIC ANOMALIES
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/225080
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in ArgentinaLópez, María SoledadGomez, Andrea AlejandraMuller, Gabriela VivianaWalker, ElisabetRobert, Michael A.Estallo, Elizabet LiliaCLIMATE CHANGEDENGUECLIMATIC ANOMALIEShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1BACKGROUND: Climate change is an important driver of the increased spread of dengue from tropical and subtropical regions to temperate areas around the world. Climate variables such as temperature and precipitation influence the dengue vector’s biology, physiology, abundance, and life cycle. Thus, an analysis is needed of changes in climate change and their possible relationships with dengue incidence and the growing occurrence of epidemics recorded in recent decades. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the increasing incidence of dengue driven by climate change at the southern limits of dengue virus transmission in South America. METHODS: We analyzed the evolution of climatological, epidemiological, and biological variables by comparing a period of time without the presence of dengue cases (1976–1997) to a more recent period of time in which dengue cases and important outbreaks occurred (1998–2020). In our analysis, we consider climate variables associated with temperature and precipitation, epidemiological variables such as the number of reported dengue cases and incidence of dengue, and biological variables such as the optimal temperature ranges for transmission of dengue vector. RESULTS: The presence of dengue cases and epidemic outbreaks are observed to be consistent with positive trends in temperature and anomalies from long-term means. Dengue cases do not seem to be associated with precipitation trends and anomalies. The number of days with optimal temperatures for dengue transmission increased from the period without dengue cases to the period with occurrences of dengue cases. The number of months with optimal transmission temperatures also increased between periods but to a lesser extent. CONCLUSIONS: The higher incidence of dengue virus and its expansion to different regions of Argentina seem to be associated with temperature increases in the country during the past two decades. The active surveillance of both the vector and associated arboviruses, together with continued meteorological data collection, will facilitate the assessment and prediction of future epidemics that use trends in the accelerated changes in climate. Such surveillance should go hand in hand with efforts to improve the understanding of the mechanisms driving the geographic expansion of dengue and other arboviruses beyond the current limits. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11616.Fil: López, María Soledad. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; ArgentinaFil: Gomez, Andrea Alejandra. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; ArgentinaFil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; ArgentinaFil: Walker, Elisabet. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; ArgentinaFil: Robert, Michael A.. Virginia Polytechnic Institute; Estados UnidosFil: Estallo, Elizabet Lilia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones Entomológicas de Córdoba; ArgentinaU.S. Department of Health and Human Sciences. Public Health and Science2023-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/225080López, María Soledad; Gomez, Andrea Alejandra; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Walker, Elisabet; Robert, Michael A.; et al.; Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina; U.S. Department of Health and Human Sciences. Public Health and Science; Environmental Health Perspectives; 131; 5; 5-2023; 1-90091-6765CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/EHP11616info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1289/EHP11616info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T15:15:33Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/225080instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 15:15:33.537CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina
title Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina
spellingShingle Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina
López, María Soledad
CLIMATE CHANGE
DENGUE
CLIMATIC ANOMALIES
title_short Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina
title_full Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina
title_fullStr Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina
title_sort Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv López, María Soledad
Gomez, Andrea Alejandra
Muller, Gabriela Viviana
Walker, Elisabet
Robert, Michael A.
Estallo, Elizabet Lilia
author López, María Soledad
author_facet López, María Soledad
Gomez, Andrea Alejandra
Muller, Gabriela Viviana
Walker, Elisabet
Robert, Michael A.
Estallo, Elizabet Lilia
author_role author
author2 Gomez, Andrea Alejandra
Muller, Gabriela Viviana
Walker, Elisabet
Robert, Michael A.
Estallo, Elizabet Lilia
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CLIMATE CHANGE
DENGUE
CLIMATIC ANOMALIES
topic CLIMATE CHANGE
DENGUE
CLIMATIC ANOMALIES
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv BACKGROUND: Climate change is an important driver of the increased spread of dengue from tropical and subtropical regions to temperate areas around the world. Climate variables such as temperature and precipitation influence the dengue vector’s biology, physiology, abundance, and life cycle. Thus, an analysis is needed of changes in climate change and their possible relationships with dengue incidence and the growing occurrence of epidemics recorded in recent decades. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the increasing incidence of dengue driven by climate change at the southern limits of dengue virus transmission in South America. METHODS: We analyzed the evolution of climatological, epidemiological, and biological variables by comparing a period of time without the presence of dengue cases (1976–1997) to a more recent period of time in which dengue cases and important outbreaks occurred (1998–2020). In our analysis, we consider climate variables associated with temperature and precipitation, epidemiological variables such as the number of reported dengue cases and incidence of dengue, and biological variables such as the optimal temperature ranges for transmission of dengue vector. RESULTS: The presence of dengue cases and epidemic outbreaks are observed to be consistent with positive trends in temperature and anomalies from long-term means. Dengue cases do not seem to be associated with precipitation trends and anomalies. The number of days with optimal temperatures for dengue transmission increased from the period without dengue cases to the period with occurrences of dengue cases. The number of months with optimal transmission temperatures also increased between periods but to a lesser extent. CONCLUSIONS: The higher incidence of dengue virus and its expansion to different regions of Argentina seem to be associated with temperature increases in the country during the past two decades. The active surveillance of both the vector and associated arboviruses, together with continued meteorological data collection, will facilitate the assessment and prediction of future epidemics that use trends in the accelerated changes in climate. Such surveillance should go hand in hand with efforts to improve the understanding of the mechanisms driving the geographic expansion of dengue and other arboviruses beyond the current limits. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11616.
Fil: López, María Soledad. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Gomez, Andrea Alejandra. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Walker, Elisabet. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Robert, Michael A.. Virginia Polytechnic Institute; Estados Unidos
Fil: Estallo, Elizabet Lilia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones Entomológicas de Córdoba; Argentina
description BACKGROUND: Climate change is an important driver of the increased spread of dengue from tropical and subtropical regions to temperate areas around the world. Climate variables such as temperature and precipitation influence the dengue vector’s biology, physiology, abundance, and life cycle. Thus, an analysis is needed of changes in climate change and their possible relationships with dengue incidence and the growing occurrence of epidemics recorded in recent decades. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the increasing incidence of dengue driven by climate change at the southern limits of dengue virus transmission in South America. METHODS: We analyzed the evolution of climatological, epidemiological, and biological variables by comparing a period of time without the presence of dengue cases (1976–1997) to a more recent period of time in which dengue cases and important outbreaks occurred (1998–2020). In our analysis, we consider climate variables associated with temperature and precipitation, epidemiological variables such as the number of reported dengue cases and incidence of dengue, and biological variables such as the optimal temperature ranges for transmission of dengue vector. RESULTS: The presence of dengue cases and epidemic outbreaks are observed to be consistent with positive trends in temperature and anomalies from long-term means. Dengue cases do not seem to be associated with precipitation trends and anomalies. The number of days with optimal temperatures for dengue transmission increased from the period without dengue cases to the period with occurrences of dengue cases. The number of months with optimal transmission temperatures also increased between periods but to a lesser extent. CONCLUSIONS: The higher incidence of dengue virus and its expansion to different regions of Argentina seem to be associated with temperature increases in the country during the past two decades. The active surveillance of both the vector and associated arboviruses, together with continued meteorological data collection, will facilitate the assessment and prediction of future epidemics that use trends in the accelerated changes in climate. Such surveillance should go hand in hand with efforts to improve the understanding of the mechanisms driving the geographic expansion of dengue and other arboviruses beyond the current limits. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11616.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-05
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/225080
López, María Soledad; Gomez, Andrea Alejandra; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Walker, Elisabet; Robert, Michael A.; et al.; Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina; U.S. Department of Health and Human Sciences. Public Health and Science; Environmental Health Perspectives; 131; 5; 5-2023; 1-9
0091-6765
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/225080
identifier_str_mv López, María Soledad; Gomez, Andrea Alejandra; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Walker, Elisabet; Robert, Michael A.; et al.; Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina; U.S. Department of Health and Human Sciences. Public Health and Science; Environmental Health Perspectives; 131; 5; 5-2023; 1-9
0091-6765
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/EHP11616
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1289/EHP11616
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv U.S. Department of Health and Human Sciences. Public Health and Science
publisher.none.fl_str_mv U.S. Department of Health and Human Sciences. Public Health and Science
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
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repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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