Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world

Autores
Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bisselink, Berny; Dottori, Francesco; Naumann, Gustavo; de Roo, Ad; Salamon, Peter; Wyser, Klaus; Feyen, Luc
Año de publicación
2017
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Rising global temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the linkage between atmospheric warming and the occurrence of natural hazards. While the Paris Agreement has set the ambitious target to limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels, scientists are urged to explore scenarios for different warming thresholds and quantify ranges of socioeconomic impact. In this work, we present a framework to estimate the economic damage and population affected by river floods at global scale. It is based on a modeling cascade involving hydrological, hydraulic and socioeconomic impact simulations, and makes use of state-of-the-art global layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability at 1-km grid resolution. An ensemble of seven high-resolution global climate projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 is used to derive streamflow simulations in the present and in the future climate. Those were analyzed to assess the frequency and magnitude of river floods and their impacts under scenarios corresponding to 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C global warming. Results indicate a clear positive correlation between atmospheric warming and future flood risk at global scale. At 4°C global warming, countries representing more than 70% of the global population and global gross domestic product will face increases in flood risk in excess of 500%. Changes in flood risk are unevenly distributed, with the largest increases in Asia, U.S., and Europe. In contrast, changes are statistically not significant in most countries in Africa and Oceania for all considered warming levels.
Fil: Alfieri, Lorenzo. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Bisselink, Berny. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Dottori, Francesco. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: de Roo, Ad. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Salamon, Peter. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Wyser, Klaus. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute; Suecia
Fil: Feyen, Luc. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Materia
CLIMATE CHANGE
FLOOD FREQUENCY
FLOOD RISK
MODEL AGREEMENT
RCP 8.5
SPECIFIC WARMING LEVELS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/59702
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer worldAlfieri, LorenzoBisselink, BernyDottori, FrancescoNaumann, Gustavode Roo, AdSalamon, PeterWyser, KlausFeyen, LucCLIMATE CHANGEFLOOD FREQUENCYFLOOD RISKMODEL AGREEMENTRCP 8.5SPECIFIC WARMING LEVELShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Rising global temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the linkage between atmospheric warming and the occurrence of natural hazards. While the Paris Agreement has set the ambitious target to limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels, scientists are urged to explore scenarios for different warming thresholds and quantify ranges of socioeconomic impact. In this work, we present a framework to estimate the economic damage and population affected by river floods at global scale. It is based on a modeling cascade involving hydrological, hydraulic and socioeconomic impact simulations, and makes use of state-of-the-art global layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability at 1-km grid resolution. An ensemble of seven high-resolution global climate projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 is used to derive streamflow simulations in the present and in the future climate. Those were analyzed to assess the frequency and magnitude of river floods and their impacts under scenarios corresponding to 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C global warming. Results indicate a clear positive correlation between atmospheric warming and future flood risk at global scale. At 4°C global warming, countries representing more than 70% of the global population and global gross domestic product will face increases in flood risk in excess of 500%. Changes in flood risk are unevenly distributed, with the largest increases in Asia, U.S., and Europe. In contrast, changes are statistically not significant in most countries in Africa and Oceania for all considered warming levels.Fil: Alfieri, Lorenzo. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Bisselink, Berny. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Dottori, Francesco. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Naumann, Gustavo. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: de Roo, Ad. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Salamon, Peter. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Wyser, Klaus. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute; SueciaFil: Feyen, Luc. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaJohn Wiley & Sons Inc2017-02info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/59702Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bisselink, Berny; Dottori, Francesco; Naumann, Gustavo; de Roo, Ad; et al.; Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world; John Wiley & Sons Inc; Earth's Future; 5; 2; 2-2017; 171-1822328-4277CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/2016EF000485info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2016EF000485info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:44:13Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/59702instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:44:13.937CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world
title Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world
spellingShingle Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world
Alfieri, Lorenzo
CLIMATE CHANGE
FLOOD FREQUENCY
FLOOD RISK
MODEL AGREEMENT
RCP 8.5
SPECIFIC WARMING LEVELS
title_short Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world
title_full Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world
title_fullStr Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world
title_full_unstemmed Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world
title_sort Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Alfieri, Lorenzo
Bisselink, Berny
Dottori, Francesco
Naumann, Gustavo
de Roo, Ad
Salamon, Peter
Wyser, Klaus
Feyen, Luc
author Alfieri, Lorenzo
author_facet Alfieri, Lorenzo
Bisselink, Berny
Dottori, Francesco
Naumann, Gustavo
de Roo, Ad
Salamon, Peter
Wyser, Klaus
Feyen, Luc
author_role author
author2 Bisselink, Berny
Dottori, Francesco
Naumann, Gustavo
de Roo, Ad
Salamon, Peter
Wyser, Klaus
Feyen, Luc
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CLIMATE CHANGE
FLOOD FREQUENCY
FLOOD RISK
MODEL AGREEMENT
RCP 8.5
SPECIFIC WARMING LEVELS
topic CLIMATE CHANGE
FLOOD FREQUENCY
FLOOD RISK
MODEL AGREEMENT
RCP 8.5
SPECIFIC WARMING LEVELS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Rising global temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the linkage between atmospheric warming and the occurrence of natural hazards. While the Paris Agreement has set the ambitious target to limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels, scientists are urged to explore scenarios for different warming thresholds and quantify ranges of socioeconomic impact. In this work, we present a framework to estimate the economic damage and population affected by river floods at global scale. It is based on a modeling cascade involving hydrological, hydraulic and socioeconomic impact simulations, and makes use of state-of-the-art global layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability at 1-km grid resolution. An ensemble of seven high-resolution global climate projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 is used to derive streamflow simulations in the present and in the future climate. Those were analyzed to assess the frequency and magnitude of river floods and their impacts under scenarios corresponding to 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C global warming. Results indicate a clear positive correlation between atmospheric warming and future flood risk at global scale. At 4°C global warming, countries representing more than 70% of the global population and global gross domestic product will face increases in flood risk in excess of 500%. Changes in flood risk are unevenly distributed, with the largest increases in Asia, U.S., and Europe. In contrast, changes are statistically not significant in most countries in Africa and Oceania for all considered warming levels.
Fil: Alfieri, Lorenzo. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Bisselink, Berny. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Dottori, Francesco. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: de Roo, Ad. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Salamon, Peter. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Wyser, Klaus. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute; Suecia
Fil: Feyen, Luc. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia
description Rising global temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the linkage between atmospheric warming and the occurrence of natural hazards. While the Paris Agreement has set the ambitious target to limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels, scientists are urged to explore scenarios for different warming thresholds and quantify ranges of socioeconomic impact. In this work, we present a framework to estimate the economic damage and population affected by river floods at global scale. It is based on a modeling cascade involving hydrological, hydraulic and socioeconomic impact simulations, and makes use of state-of-the-art global layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability at 1-km grid resolution. An ensemble of seven high-resolution global climate projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 is used to derive streamflow simulations in the present and in the future climate. Those were analyzed to assess the frequency and magnitude of river floods and their impacts under scenarios corresponding to 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C global warming. Results indicate a clear positive correlation between atmospheric warming and future flood risk at global scale. At 4°C global warming, countries representing more than 70% of the global population and global gross domestic product will face increases in flood risk in excess of 500%. Changes in flood risk are unevenly distributed, with the largest increases in Asia, U.S., and Europe. In contrast, changes are statistically not significant in most countries in Africa and Oceania for all considered warming levels.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017-02
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/59702
Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bisselink, Berny; Dottori, Francesco; Naumann, Gustavo; de Roo, Ad; et al.; Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world; John Wiley & Sons Inc; Earth's Future; 5; 2; 2-2017; 171-182
2328-4277
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/59702
identifier_str_mv Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bisselink, Berny; Dottori, Francesco; Naumann, Gustavo; de Roo, Ad; et al.; Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world; John Wiley & Sons Inc; Earth's Future; 5; 2; 2-2017; 171-182
2328-4277
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/2016EF000485
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2016EF000485
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Inc
publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Inc
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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