Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models

Autores
Osman, Marisol; Vera, Carolina Susana; Doblas Reyes, F.J.
Año de publicación
2016
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
An assessment of the predictability and prediction skill of the tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere was done. The analysis is based on seasonal forecasts of geopotential heights at 200, 500 and 850 hPa, for austral summer and winter from 11 models participating in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. It is found that predictability (signal-to-variance ratio) and prediction skill (anomaly correlation) in the tropics is higher than in the extratropics and is also higher in summer than in winter. Both predictability and skill are higher at high than at low altitudes. Modest values of predictability and skill are found at polar latitudes in the Bellinghausen-Amundsen Seas. The analysis of the changes in predictability and prediction skill in ENSO events reveals that both are slightly higher in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years than in all years, while the spatial patterns of maxima and minima remain unchanged. Changes in signal-to-noise ratio observed are mainly due to signal changes rather than changes in noise. Composites of geopotential heights anomalies for El Niño and La Niña years are in agreement with observations.
Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Doblas Reyes, F.J.. Institucio Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats; España. Institut Català de Ciències del Clima; España. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; España
Materia
El NiÑO Southern Oscillation
Geopotential Heights
Seasonal Predictability
Southern Hemisphere
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/58816
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP modelsOsman, MarisolVera, Carolina SusanaDoblas Reyes, F.J.El NiÑO Southern OscillationGeopotential HeightsSeasonal PredictabilitySouthern Hemispherehttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1An assessment of the predictability and prediction skill of the tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere was done. The analysis is based on seasonal forecasts of geopotential heights at 200, 500 and 850 hPa, for austral summer and winter from 11 models participating in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. It is found that predictability (signal-to-variance ratio) and prediction skill (anomaly correlation) in the tropics is higher than in the extratropics and is also higher in summer than in winter. Both predictability and skill are higher at high than at low altitudes. Modest values of predictability and skill are found at polar latitudes in the Bellinghausen-Amundsen Seas. The analysis of the changes in predictability and prediction skill in ENSO events reveals that both are slightly higher in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years than in all years, while the spatial patterns of maxima and minima remain unchanged. Changes in signal-to-noise ratio observed are mainly due to signal changes rather than changes in noise. Composites of geopotential heights anomalies for El Niño and La Niña years are in agreement with observations.Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Doblas Reyes, F.J.. Institucio Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats; España. Institut Català de Ciències del Clima; España. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; EspañaSpringer2016-06info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/58816Osman, Marisol; Vera, Carolina Susana; Doblas Reyes, F.J.; Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 46; 7-8; 6-2016; 2423-24340930-7575CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-015-2710-2info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2710-2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:44:02Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/58816instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:44:02.793CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models
title Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models
spellingShingle Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models
Osman, Marisol
El NiÑO Southern Oscillation
Geopotential Heights
Seasonal Predictability
Southern Hemisphere
title_short Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models
title_full Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models
title_fullStr Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models
title_full_unstemmed Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models
title_sort Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Osman, Marisol
Vera, Carolina Susana
Doblas Reyes, F.J.
author Osman, Marisol
author_facet Osman, Marisol
Vera, Carolina Susana
Doblas Reyes, F.J.
author_role author
author2 Vera, Carolina Susana
Doblas Reyes, F.J.
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv El NiÑO Southern Oscillation
Geopotential Heights
Seasonal Predictability
Southern Hemisphere
topic El NiÑO Southern Oscillation
Geopotential Heights
Seasonal Predictability
Southern Hemisphere
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv An assessment of the predictability and prediction skill of the tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere was done. The analysis is based on seasonal forecasts of geopotential heights at 200, 500 and 850 hPa, for austral summer and winter from 11 models participating in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. It is found that predictability (signal-to-variance ratio) and prediction skill (anomaly correlation) in the tropics is higher than in the extratropics and is also higher in summer than in winter. Both predictability and skill are higher at high than at low altitudes. Modest values of predictability and skill are found at polar latitudes in the Bellinghausen-Amundsen Seas. The analysis of the changes in predictability and prediction skill in ENSO events reveals that both are slightly higher in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years than in all years, while the spatial patterns of maxima and minima remain unchanged. Changes in signal-to-noise ratio observed are mainly due to signal changes rather than changes in noise. Composites of geopotential heights anomalies for El Niño and La Niña years are in agreement with observations.
Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Doblas Reyes, F.J.. Institucio Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats; España. Institut Català de Ciències del Clima; España. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; España
description An assessment of the predictability and prediction skill of the tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere was done. The analysis is based on seasonal forecasts of geopotential heights at 200, 500 and 850 hPa, for austral summer and winter from 11 models participating in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. It is found that predictability (signal-to-variance ratio) and prediction skill (anomaly correlation) in the tropics is higher than in the extratropics and is also higher in summer than in winter. Both predictability and skill are higher at high than at low altitudes. Modest values of predictability and skill are found at polar latitudes in the Bellinghausen-Amundsen Seas. The analysis of the changes in predictability and prediction skill in ENSO events reveals that both are slightly higher in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years than in all years, while the spatial patterns of maxima and minima remain unchanged. Changes in signal-to-noise ratio observed are mainly due to signal changes rather than changes in noise. Composites of geopotential heights anomalies for El Niño and La Niña years are in agreement with observations.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016-06
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/58816
Osman, Marisol; Vera, Carolina Susana; Doblas Reyes, F.J.; Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 46; 7-8; 6-2016; 2423-2434
0930-7575
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/58816
identifier_str_mv Osman, Marisol; Vera, Carolina Susana; Doblas Reyes, F.J.; Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 46; 7-8; 6-2016; 2423-2434
0930-7575
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-015-2710-2
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2710-2
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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