Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos
- Autores
- Stollenwerk, Nico; Spaziani, Stefano; Mar, Javier; Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren; Knopoff, Damián Alejandro; Cusimano, Nicole; Anam, Vizda; Shrivastava, Akhil; Aguiar, Maíra
- Año de publicación
- 2022
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- We investigate models to describe respiratory diseases with fast mutating virus pathogens such that after some years the aquired resistance is lost and hosts can be infected with new variants of the pathogen. Such models were initially suggested for respiartory diseases like influenza, showing complex dynamics in reasonable parameter regions when comparing to historic empirical influenza like illness data, e.g., from Ille de France. The seasonal forcing typical for respiratory diseases gives rise to the different rich dynamical scenarios with even small parameter changes. Especially the seasonality of the infection leads for small values already to period doubling bifurcations into chaos, besides additional coexisting attractors. Such models could in the future also play a role in understanding the presently experienced COVID-19 pandemic, under emerging new variants and with only limited vaccine efficacies against newly upcoming variants. From first period doubling bifurcations, we can eventually infer at which close by parameter regions complex dynamics including deterministic chaos can arise.
Fil: Stollenwerk, Nico. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Spaziani, Stefano. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Mar, Javier. Biodonostia Health Research Institute; España
Fil: Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Knopoff, Damián Alejandro. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Centro de Investigación y Estudios de Matemática. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Centro de Investigación y Estudios de Matemática; Argentina
Fil: Cusimano, Nicole. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Anam, Vizda. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Shrivastava, Akhil. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Aguiar, Maíra. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España - Materia
-
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS
SEASONALITY
CHAOS
BIFURCATION THEORY - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/203394
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Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaosStollenwerk, NicoSpaziani, StefanoMar, JavierArrizabalaga, Irati EguigurenKnopoff, Damián AlejandroCusimano, NicoleAnam, VizdaShrivastava, AkhilAguiar, MaíraEPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELSSEASONALITYCHAOSBIFURCATION THEORYhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1We investigate models to describe respiratory diseases with fast mutating virus pathogens such that after some years the aquired resistance is lost and hosts can be infected with new variants of the pathogen. Such models were initially suggested for respiartory diseases like influenza, showing complex dynamics in reasonable parameter regions when comparing to historic empirical influenza like illness data, e.g., from Ille de France. The seasonal forcing typical for respiratory diseases gives rise to the different rich dynamical scenarios with even small parameter changes. Especially the seasonality of the infection leads for small values already to period doubling bifurcations into chaos, besides additional coexisting attractors. Such models could in the future also play a role in understanding the presently experienced COVID-19 pandemic, under emerging new variants and with only limited vaccine efficacies against newly upcoming variants. From first period doubling bifurcations, we can eventually infer at which close by parameter regions complex dynamics including deterministic chaos can arise.Fil: Stollenwerk, Nico. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; EspañaFil: Spaziani, Stefano. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; EspañaFil: Mar, Javier. Biodonostia Health Research Institute; EspañaFil: Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; EspañaFil: Knopoff, Damián Alejandro. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Centro de Investigación y Estudios de Matemática. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Centro de Investigación y Estudios de Matemática; ArgentinaFil: Cusimano, Nicole. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; EspañaFil: Anam, Vizda. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; EspañaFil: Shrivastava, Akhil. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; EspañaFil: Aguiar, Maíra. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; EspañaHindawi Publishing Corporation2022-03-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/203394Stollenwerk, Nico; Spaziani, Stefano; Mar, Javier; Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren; Knopoff, Damián Alejandro; et al.; Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos; Hindawi Publishing Corporation; Computational and Mathematical Methods; 3556043; 3-3-2022; 1-122577-7408CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.hindawi.com/journals/cmm/2022/3556043/info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1155/2022/3556043info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T12:01:02Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/203394instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 12:01:03.041CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos |
title |
Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos |
spellingShingle |
Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos Stollenwerk, Nico EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS SEASONALITY CHAOS BIFURCATION THEORY |
title_short |
Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos |
title_full |
Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos |
title_fullStr |
Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos |
title_sort |
Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Stollenwerk, Nico Spaziani, Stefano Mar, Javier Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren Knopoff, Damián Alejandro Cusimano, Nicole Anam, Vizda Shrivastava, Akhil Aguiar, Maíra |
author |
Stollenwerk, Nico |
author_facet |
Stollenwerk, Nico Spaziani, Stefano Mar, Javier Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren Knopoff, Damián Alejandro Cusimano, Nicole Anam, Vizda Shrivastava, Akhil Aguiar, Maíra |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Spaziani, Stefano Mar, Javier Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren Knopoff, Damián Alejandro Cusimano, Nicole Anam, Vizda Shrivastava, Akhil Aguiar, Maíra |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS SEASONALITY CHAOS BIFURCATION THEORY |
topic |
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS SEASONALITY CHAOS BIFURCATION THEORY |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.1 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
We investigate models to describe respiratory diseases with fast mutating virus pathogens such that after some years the aquired resistance is lost and hosts can be infected with new variants of the pathogen. Such models were initially suggested for respiartory diseases like influenza, showing complex dynamics in reasonable parameter regions when comparing to historic empirical influenza like illness data, e.g., from Ille de France. The seasonal forcing typical for respiratory diseases gives rise to the different rich dynamical scenarios with even small parameter changes. Especially the seasonality of the infection leads for small values already to period doubling bifurcations into chaos, besides additional coexisting attractors. Such models could in the future also play a role in understanding the presently experienced COVID-19 pandemic, under emerging new variants and with only limited vaccine efficacies against newly upcoming variants. From first period doubling bifurcations, we can eventually infer at which close by parameter regions complex dynamics including deterministic chaos can arise. Fil: Stollenwerk, Nico. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España Fil: Spaziani, Stefano. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España Fil: Mar, Javier. Biodonostia Health Research Institute; España Fil: Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España Fil: Knopoff, Damián Alejandro. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Centro de Investigación y Estudios de Matemática. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Centro de Investigación y Estudios de Matemática; Argentina Fil: Cusimano, Nicole. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España Fil: Anam, Vizda. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España Fil: Shrivastava, Akhil. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España Fil: Aguiar, Maíra. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España |
description |
We investigate models to describe respiratory diseases with fast mutating virus pathogens such that after some years the aquired resistance is lost and hosts can be infected with new variants of the pathogen. Such models were initially suggested for respiartory diseases like influenza, showing complex dynamics in reasonable parameter regions when comparing to historic empirical influenza like illness data, e.g., from Ille de France. The seasonal forcing typical for respiratory diseases gives rise to the different rich dynamical scenarios with even small parameter changes. Especially the seasonality of the infection leads for small values already to period doubling bifurcations into chaos, besides additional coexisting attractors. Such models could in the future also play a role in understanding the presently experienced COVID-19 pandemic, under emerging new variants and with only limited vaccine efficacies against newly upcoming variants. From first period doubling bifurcations, we can eventually infer at which close by parameter regions complex dynamics including deterministic chaos can arise. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-03-03 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/203394 Stollenwerk, Nico; Spaziani, Stefano; Mar, Javier; Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren; Knopoff, Damián Alejandro; et al.; Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos; Hindawi Publishing Corporation; Computational and Mathematical Methods; 3556043; 3-3-2022; 1-12 2577-7408 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/203394 |
identifier_str_mv |
Stollenwerk, Nico; Spaziani, Stefano; Mar, Javier; Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren; Knopoff, Damián Alejandro; et al.; Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos; Hindawi Publishing Corporation; Computational and Mathematical Methods; 3556043; 3-3-2022; 1-12 2577-7408 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.hindawi.com/journals/cmm/2022/3556043/ info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1155/2022/3556043 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Hindawi Publishing Corporation |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Hindawi Publishing Corporation |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
reponame_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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1846782340293984256 |
score |
12.982451 |