Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos

Autores
Stollenwerk, Nico; Spaziani, Stefano; Mar, Javier; Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren; Knopoff, Damián Alejandro; Cusimano, Nicole; Anam, Vizda; Shrivastava, Akhil; Aguiar, Maíra
Año de publicación
2022
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
We investigate models to describe respiratory diseases with fast mutating virus pathogens such that after some years the aquired resistance is lost and hosts can be infected with new variants of the pathogen. Such models were initially suggested for respiartory diseases like influenza, showing complex dynamics in reasonable parameter regions when comparing to historic empirical influenza like illness data, e.g., from Ille de France. The seasonal forcing typical for respiratory diseases gives rise to the different rich dynamical scenarios with even small parameter changes. Especially the seasonality of the infection leads for small values already to period doubling bifurcations into chaos, besides additional coexisting attractors. Such models could in the future also play a role in understanding the presently experienced COVID-19 pandemic, under emerging new variants and with only limited vaccine efficacies against newly upcoming variants. From first period doubling bifurcations, we can eventually infer at which close by parameter regions complex dynamics including deterministic chaos can arise.
Fil: Stollenwerk, Nico. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Spaziani, Stefano. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Mar, Javier. Biodonostia Health Research Institute; España
Fil: Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Knopoff, Damián Alejandro. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Centro de Investigación y Estudios de Matemática. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Centro de Investigación y Estudios de Matemática; Argentina
Fil: Cusimano, Nicole. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Anam, Vizda. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Shrivastava, Akhil. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Aguiar, Maíra. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Materia
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS
SEASONALITY
CHAOS
BIFURCATION THEORY
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/203394

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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaosStollenwerk, NicoSpaziani, StefanoMar, JavierArrizabalaga, Irati EguigurenKnopoff, Damián AlejandroCusimano, NicoleAnam, VizdaShrivastava, AkhilAguiar, MaíraEPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELSSEASONALITYCHAOSBIFURCATION THEORYhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1We investigate models to describe respiratory diseases with fast mutating virus pathogens such that after some years the aquired resistance is lost and hosts can be infected with new variants of the pathogen. Such models were initially suggested for respiartory diseases like influenza, showing complex dynamics in reasonable parameter regions when comparing to historic empirical influenza like illness data, e.g., from Ille de France. The seasonal forcing typical for respiratory diseases gives rise to the different rich dynamical scenarios with even small parameter changes. Especially the seasonality of the infection leads for small values already to period doubling bifurcations into chaos, besides additional coexisting attractors. Such models could in the future also play a role in understanding the presently experienced COVID-19 pandemic, under emerging new variants and with only limited vaccine efficacies against newly upcoming variants. From first period doubling bifurcations, we can eventually infer at which close by parameter regions complex dynamics including deterministic chaos can arise.Fil: Stollenwerk, Nico. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; EspañaFil: Spaziani, Stefano. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; EspañaFil: Mar, Javier. Biodonostia Health Research Institute; EspañaFil: Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; EspañaFil: Knopoff, Damián Alejandro. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Centro de Investigación y Estudios de Matemática. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Centro de Investigación y Estudios de Matemática; ArgentinaFil: Cusimano, Nicole. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; EspañaFil: Anam, Vizda. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; EspañaFil: Shrivastava, Akhil. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; EspañaFil: Aguiar, Maíra. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; EspañaHindawi Publishing Corporation2022-03-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/203394Stollenwerk, Nico; Spaziani, Stefano; Mar, Javier; Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren; Knopoff, Damián Alejandro; et al.; Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos; Hindawi Publishing Corporation; Computational and Mathematical Methods; 3556043; 3-3-2022; 1-122577-7408CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.hindawi.com/journals/cmm/2022/3556043/info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1155/2022/3556043info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T12:01:02Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/203394instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 12:01:03.041CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos
title Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos
spellingShingle Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos
Stollenwerk, Nico
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS
SEASONALITY
CHAOS
BIFURCATION THEORY
title_short Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos
title_full Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos
title_fullStr Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos
title_full_unstemmed Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos
title_sort Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Stollenwerk, Nico
Spaziani, Stefano
Mar, Javier
Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren
Knopoff, Damián Alejandro
Cusimano, Nicole
Anam, Vizda
Shrivastava, Akhil
Aguiar, Maíra
author Stollenwerk, Nico
author_facet Stollenwerk, Nico
Spaziani, Stefano
Mar, Javier
Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren
Knopoff, Damián Alejandro
Cusimano, Nicole
Anam, Vizda
Shrivastava, Akhil
Aguiar, Maíra
author_role author
author2 Spaziani, Stefano
Mar, Javier
Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren
Knopoff, Damián Alejandro
Cusimano, Nicole
Anam, Vizda
Shrivastava, Akhil
Aguiar, Maíra
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS
SEASONALITY
CHAOS
BIFURCATION THEORY
topic EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS
SEASONALITY
CHAOS
BIFURCATION THEORY
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.1
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv We investigate models to describe respiratory diseases with fast mutating virus pathogens such that after some years the aquired resistance is lost and hosts can be infected with new variants of the pathogen. Such models were initially suggested for respiartory diseases like influenza, showing complex dynamics in reasonable parameter regions when comparing to historic empirical influenza like illness data, e.g., from Ille de France. The seasonal forcing typical for respiratory diseases gives rise to the different rich dynamical scenarios with even small parameter changes. Especially the seasonality of the infection leads for small values already to period doubling bifurcations into chaos, besides additional coexisting attractors. Such models could in the future also play a role in understanding the presently experienced COVID-19 pandemic, under emerging new variants and with only limited vaccine efficacies against newly upcoming variants. From first period doubling bifurcations, we can eventually infer at which close by parameter regions complex dynamics including deterministic chaos can arise.
Fil: Stollenwerk, Nico. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Spaziani, Stefano. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Mar, Javier. Biodonostia Health Research Institute; España
Fil: Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Knopoff, Damián Alejandro. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Centro de Investigación y Estudios de Matemática. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Centro de Investigación y Estudios de Matemática; Argentina
Fil: Cusimano, Nicole. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Anam, Vizda. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Shrivastava, Akhil. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
Fil: Aguiar, Maíra. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
description We investigate models to describe respiratory diseases with fast mutating virus pathogens such that after some years the aquired resistance is lost and hosts can be infected with new variants of the pathogen. Such models were initially suggested for respiartory diseases like influenza, showing complex dynamics in reasonable parameter regions when comparing to historic empirical influenza like illness data, e.g., from Ille de France. The seasonal forcing typical for respiratory diseases gives rise to the different rich dynamical scenarios with even small parameter changes. Especially the seasonality of the infection leads for small values already to period doubling bifurcations into chaos, besides additional coexisting attractors. Such models could in the future also play a role in understanding the presently experienced COVID-19 pandemic, under emerging new variants and with only limited vaccine efficacies against newly upcoming variants. From first period doubling bifurcations, we can eventually infer at which close by parameter regions complex dynamics including deterministic chaos can arise.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-03-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/203394
Stollenwerk, Nico; Spaziani, Stefano; Mar, Javier; Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren; Knopoff, Damián Alejandro; et al.; Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos; Hindawi Publishing Corporation; Computational and Mathematical Methods; 3556043; 3-3-2022; 1-12
2577-7408
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/203394
identifier_str_mv Stollenwerk, Nico; Spaziani, Stefano; Mar, Javier; Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren; Knopoff, Damián Alejandro; et al.; Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos; Hindawi Publishing Corporation; Computational and Mathematical Methods; 3556043; 3-3-2022; 1-12
2577-7408
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.hindawi.com/journals/cmm/2022/3556043/
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1155/2022/3556043
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Hindawi Publishing Corporation
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Hindawi Publishing Corporation
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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