Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations

Autores
Lares Harbin Latorre, Marcelo; Funes, Jose Gabriel; Gramajo, Luciana Veronica
Año de publicación
2020
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts between civilizations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution of intelligent life. We simply assume a network of causally connected nodes. These nodes refer somehow to intelligent agents with the capacity of receiving and emitting electromagnetic signals. Here we present a three-parametric statistical Monte Carlo model of the network in a simplified sketch of the Galaxy. Our goal, using Monte Carlo simulations, is to explore the parameter space and analyse the probabilities of causal contacts. We find that the odds to make a contact over decades of monitoring are low for most models, except for those of a galaxy densely populated with long-standing civilizations. We also find that the probability of causal contacts increases with the lifetime of civilizations more significantly than with the number of active civilizations. We show that the maximum probability of making a contact occurs when a civilization discovers the required communication technology.
Fil: Lares Harbin Latorre, Marcelo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Observatorio Astronómico de Córdoba; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina
Fil: Funes, Jose Gabriel. Universidad Católica de Córdoba. Área de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina
Fil: Gramajo, Luciana Veronica. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Observatorio Astronómico de Córdoba; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina
Materia
Computer simulations
SETI
Statistics
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/131421
Acceder
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repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizationsLares Harbin Latorre, MarceloFunes, Jose GabrielGramajo, Luciana VeronicaComputer simulationsSETIStatisticshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts between civilizations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution of intelligent life. We simply assume a network of causally connected nodes. These nodes refer somehow to intelligent agents with the capacity of receiving and emitting electromagnetic signals. Here we present a three-parametric statistical Monte Carlo model of the network in a simplified sketch of the Galaxy. Our goal, using Monte Carlo simulations, is to explore the parameter space and analyse the probabilities of causal contacts. We find that the odds to make a contact over decades of monitoring are low for most models, except for those of a galaxy densely populated with long-standing civilizations. We also find that the probability of causal contacts increases with the lifetime of civilizations more significantly than with the number of active civilizations. We show that the maximum probability of making a contact occurs when a civilization discovers the required communication technology.Fil: Lares Harbin Latorre, Marcelo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Observatorio Astronómico de Córdoba; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; ArgentinaFil: Funes, Jose Gabriel. Universidad Católica de Córdoba. Área de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; ArgentinaFil: Gramajo, Luciana Veronica. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Observatorio Astronómico de Córdoba; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; ArgentinaCambridge University Press2020-08info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/131421Lares Harbin Latorre, Marcelo; Funes, Jose Gabriel; Gramajo, Luciana Veronica; Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations; Cambridge University Press; International Journal Of Astrobiology; 19; 5; 8-2020; 1-131473-5504CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-journal-of-astrobiology/article/abs/monte-carlo-estimation-of-the-probability-of-causal-contacts-between-communicating-civilizations/E5CDEC05285A00DBA41E0A80C0F5FA03info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/S147355042000018Xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.03597info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T14:28:38Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/131421instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 14:28:38.336CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations
title Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations
spellingShingle Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations
Lares Harbin Latorre, Marcelo
Computer simulations
SETI
Statistics
title_short Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations
title_full Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations
title_fullStr Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations
title_full_unstemmed Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations
title_sort Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Lares Harbin Latorre, Marcelo
Funes, Jose Gabriel
Gramajo, Luciana Veronica
author Lares Harbin Latorre, Marcelo
author_facet Lares Harbin Latorre, Marcelo
Funes, Jose Gabriel
Gramajo, Luciana Veronica
author_role author
author2 Funes, Jose Gabriel
Gramajo, Luciana Veronica
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Computer simulations
SETI
Statistics
topic Computer simulations
SETI
Statistics
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts between civilizations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution of intelligent life. We simply assume a network of causally connected nodes. These nodes refer somehow to intelligent agents with the capacity of receiving and emitting electromagnetic signals. Here we present a three-parametric statistical Monte Carlo model of the network in a simplified sketch of the Galaxy. Our goal, using Monte Carlo simulations, is to explore the parameter space and analyse the probabilities of causal contacts. We find that the odds to make a contact over decades of monitoring are low for most models, except for those of a galaxy densely populated with long-standing civilizations. We also find that the probability of causal contacts increases with the lifetime of civilizations more significantly than with the number of active civilizations. We show that the maximum probability of making a contact occurs when a civilization discovers the required communication technology.
Fil: Lares Harbin Latorre, Marcelo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Observatorio Astronómico de Córdoba; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina
Fil: Funes, Jose Gabriel. Universidad Católica de Córdoba. Área de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina
Fil: Gramajo, Luciana Veronica. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Observatorio Astronómico de Córdoba; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina
description In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts between civilizations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution of intelligent life. We simply assume a network of causally connected nodes. These nodes refer somehow to intelligent agents with the capacity of receiving and emitting electromagnetic signals. Here we present a three-parametric statistical Monte Carlo model of the network in a simplified sketch of the Galaxy. Our goal, using Monte Carlo simulations, is to explore the parameter space and analyse the probabilities of causal contacts. We find that the odds to make a contact over decades of monitoring are low for most models, except for those of a galaxy densely populated with long-standing civilizations. We also find that the probability of causal contacts increases with the lifetime of civilizations more significantly than with the number of active civilizations. We show that the maximum probability of making a contact occurs when a civilization discovers the required communication technology.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-08
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/131421
Lares Harbin Latorre, Marcelo; Funes, Jose Gabriel; Gramajo, Luciana Veronica; Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations; Cambridge University Press; International Journal Of Astrobiology; 19; 5; 8-2020; 1-13
1473-5504
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/131421
identifier_str_mv Lares Harbin Latorre, Marcelo; Funes, Jose Gabriel; Gramajo, Luciana Veronica; Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations; Cambridge University Press; International Journal Of Astrobiology; 19; 5; 8-2020; 1-13
1473-5504
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-journal-of-astrobiology/article/abs/monte-carlo-estimation-of-the-probability-of-causal-contacts-between-communicating-civilizations/E5CDEC05285A00DBA41E0A80C0F5FA03
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/S147355042000018X
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.03597
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Cambridge University Press
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Cambridge University Press
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.22299

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