Early-warning signals of individual tree mortality based on annual radial growth

• Autores: Cailleret, Maxime; Dakos, Vasilis; Jansen, Steven; Robert, Elisabeth M. R.; Aakala, Tuomas; Amoroso, Mariano Martin; Antos, Joe A.; Bigler, Christof; Bugmann, Harald; Caccianaga, Marco; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Cherubini, Paolo; Coyea, Marie R.; Cufar, Katarina; Das, Adrian J.; Davi, Hendrik; Gea Izquierdo, Guillermo; Gillner, Sten; Haavik, Laurel J.; Hartmann, Henrik; Heres, Ana Maria; Hultine, Kevin R.; Janda, Pavel; Kane, Jeffrey M.; Kharuk, Viachelsav I.; Kitzberger, Thomas; Klein, Tamir; Levanic, Tom; Linares, Juan Carlos; Lombardi, Fabio; Mäkinen, Harri; Mészáros, Ilona; Metsaranta, Juha M.; Oberhuber, Walter; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Petritan, Any Mary; Rohner, Brigitte; Sangüesa Barreda, Gabriel; Smith, Jeremy M.; Stan, Amanda B.; Stojanovic, Dejan B.; Suarez, Maria Laura; Svoboda, Miroslav; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Villalba, Ricardo; Westwood, Alana R.; Wyckoff, Peter H.; Martínez Vilalta, Jordi
• Año de publicación: 2019
• Idioma: inglés
• Tipo de recurso: artículo
• Materia: BIOTIC AGENTS; DROUGHT; FOREST; GROWTH; RESILIENCE INDICATORS; RING-WIDTH; TREE MORTALITY; VARIANCE
• Institución: Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas

Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last ∼20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.
Fil: Cailleret, Maxime. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; Suiza. Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich; Suiza
Fil: Dakos, Vasilis. Université Montpellier II; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia
Fil: Jansen, Steven. Universitat Ulm; Alemania
Fil: Robert, Elisabeth M. R.. Royal Museum For Central Africa; Bélgica. Vrije Unviversiteit Brussel; Bélgica. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. Centre de Recerca Ecológica I Aplicacions Forestals; España
Fil: Aakala, Tuomas. University of Helsinski; Finlandia
Fil: Amoroso, Mariano Martin. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro. Sede Andina. Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Fil: Antos, Joe A.. University of Victoria; Canadá
Fil: Bigler, Christof. Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich; Suiza
Fil: Bugmann, Harald. Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich; Suiza
Fil: Caccianaga, Marco. Università degli Studi di Milano; Italia
Fil: Camarero, Jesus Julio. Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología; España. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas; España
Fil: Cherubini, Paolo. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; Suiza
Fil: Coyea, Marie R.. Laval University; Canadá
Fil: Cufar, Katarina. University Of Ljubljana; Eslovenia
Fil: Das, Adrian J.. United States Geological Survey; Estados Unidos
Fil: Davi, Hendrik. Unité de Recherche des Forets Méditerranéennes; Francia
Fil: Gea Izquierdo, Guillermo. Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria. Centro de Investigación Forestal; España
Fil: Gillner, Sten. Institute of Forest Botany and Forest Zoology; Alemania
Fil: Haavik, Laurel J.. USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Protection; Estados Unidos. University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences; Estados Unidos
Fil: Hartmann, Henrik. Max Planck Institute Of Biochemistry.; Alemania
Fil: Heres, Ana Maria. Universitatea Transilvania Din Brasov; Rumania. Basque Centre For Climate Change; España
Fil: Hultine, Kevin R.. Desert Botanical Garden. Conservation and Collections. Department of Research; Estados Unidos
Fil: Janda, Pavel. Czech University of Life Sciences; República Checa
Fil: Kane, Jeffrey M.. Humboldt State University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Kharuk, Viachelsav I.. Siberian Federal University; Rusia
Fil: Kitzberger, Thomas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; Argentina
Fil: Klein, Tamir. Weizmann Institute of Science; Israel
Fil: Levanic, Tom. Slovenian Forestry Institute; Eslovenia
Fil: Linares, Juan Carlos. Universidad Pablo de Olavide; España
Fil: Lombardi, Fabio. Universita Della Calabria.; Italia
Fil: Mäkinen, Harri. Natural Resources Institute Finland; Finlandia
Fil: Mészáros, Ilona. Debreceni Egyetem Természettudományi És Technológiai Kar; Hungría
Fil: Metsaranta, Juha M.. Northern Forestry Centre; Canadá
Fil: Oberhuber, Walter. Universidad de Innsbruck; Austria
Fil: Papadopoulos, Andreas. Technological Educational Institute of Stereas Elladas; Grecia
Fil: Petritan, Any Mary. Eidgenössische Forschungsanstalt Fur Wald, Schnee Und Landschaft Eth-bereichs; Alemania
Fil: Rohner, Brigitte. Eidgenössische Forschungsanstalt Fur Wald, Schnee Und Landschaft Eth-bereichs; Alemania
Fil: Sangüesa Barreda, Gabriel. Universidad de Valladolid; España
Fil: Smith, Jeremy M.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos
Fil: Stan, Amanda B.. Northern Arizona University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Stojanovic, Dejan B.. University Of Novi Sad; Serbia
Fil: Suarez, Maria Laura. Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria Bariloche; Argentina
Fil: Svoboda, Miroslav. Czech University Of Life Sciences Prague; República Checa
Fil: Trotsiuk, Volodymyr. Czech University of Life Sciences Prague; República Checa. Eidgenössische Forschungsanstalt Fur Wald, Schnee Und Landschaft Eth bereichs; Alemania. Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich; Alemania
Fil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Cientifícas y Tecnológicas; Argentina
Fil: Westwood, Alana R.. University of Alberta; Canadá
Fil: Wyckoff, Peter H.. University Of Minnesota System; Estados Unidos
Fil: Martínez Vilalta, Jordi. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; España. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. Centre de Recerca Ecológica I Aplicacions Forestals; España