Spatial and temporal forecasting of large earthquakes in a spring-block model of a fault

Autores
Aragón, Luis Enrique; Jagla, Eduardo Alberto
Año de publicación
2013
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
We study a recently proposed statistical physics model of earthquake dynamics that includes stress relaxation in the plates as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to reproduce many realistic features of seismic phenomena, such as: the Gutenberg?Richter law for the event size distribution, the Omori law for aftershocks and an overall velocity-weakening dependence of the average friction force. Here, we analyse the dynamics of the model in detail, in order to investigate to what extent the occurrence of large events in the model can be anticipated. We systematically find that large events occur in fault patches where strain accumulation has exceeded some threshold value. The spatial extent of these patches (which correlate with the magnitude of forthcoming events) can be calculated if the strain state of the system is supposed to be known. In addition, we find that some large events are preceded by well-defined precursor activity. This allows, in a fraction of cases, to complement the forecast of magnitude and spatial location, with a sensible prediction of time of occurrence. Although our work is exclusively limited to the numerical model analysed, we argue that it gives new breath to earthquake forecast techniques that combine the historical analysis of seismic activity with a search of appropriate precursor activity.
Fil: Aragón, Luis Enrique. Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica. Centro Atomico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Area de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Fil: Jagla, Eduardo Alberto. Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica. Centro Atomico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Area de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Materia
Time-series analysis
Earthquake dynamics
Earthquake interaction, forecasting and prediction
Computational seismology
Spatial analysis
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/8942
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/8942
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Spatial and temporal forecasting of large earthquakes in a spring-block model of a faultAragón, Luis EnriqueJagla, Eduardo AlbertoTime-series analysisEarthquake dynamicsEarthquake interaction, forecasting and predictionComputational seismologySpatial analysishttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1We study a recently proposed statistical physics model of earthquake dynamics that includes stress relaxation in the plates as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to reproduce many realistic features of seismic phenomena, such as: the Gutenberg?Richter law for the event size distribution, the Omori law for aftershocks and an overall velocity-weakening dependence of the average friction force. Here, we analyse the dynamics of the model in detail, in order to investigate to what extent the occurrence of large events in the model can be anticipated. We systematically find that large events occur in fault patches where strain accumulation has exceeded some threshold value. The spatial extent of these patches (which correlate with the magnitude of forthcoming events) can be calculated if the strain state of the system is supposed to be known. In addition, we find that some large events are preceded by well-defined precursor activity. This allows, in a fraction of cases, to complement the forecast of magnitude and spatial location, with a sensible prediction of time of occurrence. Although our work is exclusively limited to the numerical model analysed, we argue that it gives new breath to earthquake forecast techniques that combine the historical analysis of seismic activity with a search of appropriate precursor activity.Fil: Aragón, Luis Enrique. Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica. Centro Atomico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Area de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Patagonia Norte; ArgentinaFil: Jagla, Eduardo Alberto. Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica. Centro Atomico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Area de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Patagonia Norte; ArgentinaOxford University Press2013-10info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/8942Aragón, Luis Enrique; Jagla, Eduardo Alberto; Spatial and temporal forecasting of large earthquakes in a spring-block model of a fault; Oxford University Press; Geophysical Journal International; 195; 10-2013; 17631-176390956-540X1365-246Xenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://gji.oxfordjournals.org/content/195/3/1763info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/ 10.1093/gji/ggt330info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:13:02Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/8942instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:13:02.693CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Spatial and temporal forecasting of large earthquakes in a spring-block model of a fault
title Spatial and temporal forecasting of large earthquakes in a spring-block model of a fault
spellingShingle Spatial and temporal forecasting of large earthquakes in a spring-block model of a fault
Aragón, Luis Enrique
Time-series analysis
Earthquake dynamics
Earthquake interaction, forecasting and prediction
Computational seismology
Spatial analysis
title_short Spatial and temporal forecasting of large earthquakes in a spring-block model of a fault
title_full Spatial and temporal forecasting of large earthquakes in a spring-block model of a fault
title_fullStr Spatial and temporal forecasting of large earthquakes in a spring-block model of a fault
title_full_unstemmed Spatial and temporal forecasting of large earthquakes in a spring-block model of a fault
title_sort Spatial and temporal forecasting of large earthquakes in a spring-block model of a fault
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Aragón, Luis Enrique
Jagla, Eduardo Alberto
author Aragón, Luis Enrique
author_facet Aragón, Luis Enrique
Jagla, Eduardo Alberto
author_role author
author2 Jagla, Eduardo Alberto
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Time-series analysis
Earthquake dynamics
Earthquake interaction, forecasting and prediction
Computational seismology
Spatial analysis
topic Time-series analysis
Earthquake dynamics
Earthquake interaction, forecasting and prediction
Computational seismology
Spatial analysis
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv We study a recently proposed statistical physics model of earthquake dynamics that includes stress relaxation in the plates as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to reproduce many realistic features of seismic phenomena, such as: the Gutenberg?Richter law for the event size distribution, the Omori law for aftershocks and an overall velocity-weakening dependence of the average friction force. Here, we analyse the dynamics of the model in detail, in order to investigate to what extent the occurrence of large events in the model can be anticipated. We systematically find that large events occur in fault patches where strain accumulation has exceeded some threshold value. The spatial extent of these patches (which correlate with the magnitude of forthcoming events) can be calculated if the strain state of the system is supposed to be known. In addition, we find that some large events are preceded by well-defined precursor activity. This allows, in a fraction of cases, to complement the forecast of magnitude and spatial location, with a sensible prediction of time of occurrence. Although our work is exclusively limited to the numerical model analysed, we argue that it gives new breath to earthquake forecast techniques that combine the historical analysis of seismic activity with a search of appropriate precursor activity.
Fil: Aragón, Luis Enrique. Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica. Centro Atomico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Area de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Fil: Jagla, Eduardo Alberto. Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica. Centro Atomico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Area de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Patagonia Norte; Argentina
description We study a recently proposed statistical physics model of earthquake dynamics that includes stress relaxation in the plates as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to reproduce many realistic features of seismic phenomena, such as: the Gutenberg?Richter law for the event size distribution, the Omori law for aftershocks and an overall velocity-weakening dependence of the average friction force. Here, we analyse the dynamics of the model in detail, in order to investigate to what extent the occurrence of large events in the model can be anticipated. We systematically find that large events occur in fault patches where strain accumulation has exceeded some threshold value. The spatial extent of these patches (which correlate with the magnitude of forthcoming events) can be calculated if the strain state of the system is supposed to be known. In addition, we find that some large events are preceded by well-defined precursor activity. This allows, in a fraction of cases, to complement the forecast of magnitude and spatial location, with a sensible prediction of time of occurrence. Although our work is exclusively limited to the numerical model analysed, we argue that it gives new breath to earthquake forecast techniques that combine the historical analysis of seismic activity with a search of appropriate precursor activity.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013-10
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/8942
Aragón, Luis Enrique; Jagla, Eduardo Alberto; Spatial and temporal forecasting of large earthquakes in a spring-block model of a fault; Oxford University Press; Geophysical Journal International; 195; 10-2013; 17631-17639
0956-540X
1365-246X
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/8942
identifier_str_mv Aragón, Luis Enrique; Jagla, Eduardo Alberto; Spatial and temporal forecasting of large earthquakes in a spring-block model of a fault; Oxford University Press; Geophysical Journal International; 195; 10-2013; 17631-17639
0956-540X
1365-246X
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://gji.oxfordjournals.org/content/195/3/1763
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/ 10.1093/gji/ggt330
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Oxford University Press
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Oxford University Press
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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