Impact of climate change on the streamflow in northern Patagonia

Autores
Rivera, Juan Antonio; Robo, Malaëka; Bianchi, Emilio; Mulleady, Cristobal
Año de publicación
2024
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Streamflow simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b) were analyzed to evaluate futurechanges in surface water resources over northern Patagonia, a region that contributes significantly to the total hydropower production ofArgentina. Ten global hydrological models (GHMs), forced by four general circulation models, effectively capture the winter streamflow maxi-mum in the Negro river basin. However, most of them face challenges in simulating the late-spring pulse due to a misrepresentation oftemperature over the higher elevations of the Andes. We quantified the future streamflow evolution using a multi-model ensemble froma subset of the best-performing GHMs under the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 emission scenarios for two temporal horizons. According to themulti-model ensemble, there is a projected decrease in the annual streamflow of the analyzed rivers, which is more important consideringthe RCP6.0 scenario during the late 21st century, reaching up to 40% relative to the 1979–2005 reference period. This reduction is attributedto the projected precipitation decline in the headwaters of the Negro river basin in response to changes in the surface pressure patterns.These results have implications for regional water authorities for the development of adaptation plans considering future demandprojections.
Fil: Rivera, Juan Antonio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Robo, Malaëka. Ecole Nationale de la Meteorologie; Francia
Fil: Bianchi, Emilio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro; Argentina
Fil: Mulleady, Cristobal. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica; Argentina
Materia
CLIMATE CHANGE
FUTURE PROJECTIONS
GLOBAL HYDROLOGICAL MODELS
PATAGONIA
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/233134
Acceder
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network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Impact of climate change on the streamflow in northern PatagoniaRivera, Juan AntonioRobo, MalaëkaBianchi, EmilioMulleady, CristobalCLIMATE CHANGEFUTURE PROJECTIONSGLOBAL HYDROLOGICAL MODELSPATAGONIAhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Streamflow simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b) were analyzed to evaluate futurechanges in surface water resources over northern Patagonia, a region that contributes significantly to the total hydropower production ofArgentina. Ten global hydrological models (GHMs), forced by four general circulation models, effectively capture the winter streamflow maxi-mum in the Negro river basin. However, most of them face challenges in simulating the late-spring pulse due to a misrepresentation oftemperature over the higher elevations of the Andes. We quantified the future streamflow evolution using a multi-model ensemble froma subset of the best-performing GHMs under the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 emission scenarios for two temporal horizons. According to themulti-model ensemble, there is a projected decrease in the annual streamflow of the analyzed rivers, which is more important consideringthe RCP6.0 scenario during the late 21st century, reaching up to 40% relative to the 1979–2005 reference period. This reduction is attributedto the projected precipitation decline in the headwaters of the Negro river basin in response to changes in the surface pressure patterns.These results have implications for regional water authorities for the development of adaptation plans considering future demandprojections.Fil: Rivera, Juan Antonio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Robo, Malaëka. Ecole Nationale de la Meteorologie; FranciaFil: Bianchi, Emilio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro; ArgentinaFil: Mulleady, Cristobal. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica; ArgentinaIWA Publishing2024-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/233134Rivera, Juan Antonio; Robo, Malaëka; Bianchi, Emilio; Mulleady, Cristobal; Impact of climate change on the streamflow in northern Patagonia; IWA Publishing; Journal of Water and Climate Change; 4-2024; 1-182040-22442408-9354CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://iwaponline.com/jwcc/article/doi/10.2166/wcc.2024.492/101501/Impact-of-climate-change-on-the-streamflow-ininfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.2166/wcc.2024.492info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T14:27:22Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/233134instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 14:27:23.13CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Impact of climate change on the streamflow in northern Patagonia
title Impact of climate change on the streamflow in northern Patagonia
spellingShingle Impact of climate change on the streamflow in northern Patagonia
Rivera, Juan Antonio
CLIMATE CHANGE
FUTURE PROJECTIONS
GLOBAL HYDROLOGICAL MODELS
PATAGONIA
title_short Impact of climate change on the streamflow in northern Patagonia
title_full Impact of climate change on the streamflow in northern Patagonia
title_fullStr Impact of climate change on the streamflow in northern Patagonia
title_full_unstemmed Impact of climate change on the streamflow in northern Patagonia
title_sort Impact of climate change on the streamflow in northern Patagonia
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Rivera, Juan Antonio
Robo, Malaëka
Bianchi, Emilio
Mulleady, Cristobal
author Rivera, Juan Antonio
author_facet Rivera, Juan Antonio
Robo, Malaëka
Bianchi, Emilio
Mulleady, Cristobal
author_role author
author2 Robo, Malaëka
Bianchi, Emilio
Mulleady, Cristobal
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CLIMATE CHANGE
FUTURE PROJECTIONS
GLOBAL HYDROLOGICAL MODELS
PATAGONIA
topic CLIMATE CHANGE
FUTURE PROJECTIONS
GLOBAL HYDROLOGICAL MODELS
PATAGONIA
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Streamflow simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b) were analyzed to evaluate futurechanges in surface water resources over northern Patagonia, a region that contributes significantly to the total hydropower production ofArgentina. Ten global hydrological models (GHMs), forced by four general circulation models, effectively capture the winter streamflow maxi-mum in the Negro river basin. However, most of them face challenges in simulating the late-spring pulse due to a misrepresentation oftemperature over the higher elevations of the Andes. We quantified the future streamflow evolution using a multi-model ensemble froma subset of the best-performing GHMs under the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 emission scenarios for two temporal horizons. According to themulti-model ensemble, there is a projected decrease in the annual streamflow of the analyzed rivers, which is more important consideringthe RCP6.0 scenario during the late 21st century, reaching up to 40% relative to the 1979–2005 reference period. This reduction is attributedto the projected precipitation decline in the headwaters of the Negro river basin in response to changes in the surface pressure patterns.These results have implications for regional water authorities for the development of adaptation plans considering future demandprojections.
Fil: Rivera, Juan Antonio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Robo, Malaëka. Ecole Nationale de la Meteorologie; Francia
Fil: Bianchi, Emilio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro; Argentina
Fil: Mulleady, Cristobal. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica; Argentina
description Streamflow simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b) were analyzed to evaluate futurechanges in surface water resources over northern Patagonia, a region that contributes significantly to the total hydropower production ofArgentina. Ten global hydrological models (GHMs), forced by four general circulation models, effectively capture the winter streamflow maxi-mum in the Negro river basin. However, most of them face challenges in simulating the late-spring pulse due to a misrepresentation oftemperature over the higher elevations of the Andes. We quantified the future streamflow evolution using a multi-model ensemble froma subset of the best-performing GHMs under the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 emission scenarios for two temporal horizons. According to themulti-model ensemble, there is a projected decrease in the annual streamflow of the analyzed rivers, which is more important consideringthe RCP6.0 scenario during the late 21st century, reaching up to 40% relative to the 1979–2005 reference period. This reduction is attributedto the projected precipitation decline in the headwaters of the Negro river basin in response to changes in the surface pressure patterns.These results have implications for regional water authorities for the development of adaptation plans considering future demandprojections.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024-04
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/233134
Rivera, Juan Antonio; Robo, Malaëka; Bianchi, Emilio; Mulleady, Cristobal; Impact of climate change on the streamflow in northern Patagonia; IWA Publishing; Journal of Water and Climate Change; 4-2024; 1-18
2040-2244
2408-9354
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/233134
identifier_str_mv Rivera, Juan Antonio; Robo, Malaëka; Bianchi, Emilio; Mulleady, Cristobal; Impact of climate change on the streamflow in northern Patagonia; IWA Publishing; Journal of Water and Climate Change; 4-2024; 1-18
2040-2244
2408-9354
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://iwaponline.com/jwcc/article/doi/10.2166/wcc.2024.492/101501/Impact-of-climate-change-on-the-streamflow-in
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.2166/wcc.2024.492
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv IWA Publishing
publisher.none.fl_str_mv IWA Publishing
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.22299

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