Flow‐Dependence of Ensemble Spread of Subseasonal Forecasts Explored via North Atlantic‐European Weather Regimes

Autores
Spaeth, J.; Rupp, P.; Osman, Marisol; Grams, C. M.; Birner, T.
Año de publicación
2024
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Atmospheric prediction at 2–6 weeks lead time (so-called subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales) entails large forecast uncertainty. Here we investigate the flow-dependence of this uncertainty during Boreal winter. We categorize the large-scale flow using North Atlantic-European weather regimes. First, we show that forecast uncertainty of near-surface geopotential height (Z1000) and temperature (T2m) are strongly sensitive to the prevailing regime. Specifically, forecast uncertainty of Z1000 reduces over northern Europe following Greenland Blocking (enhanced predictability) due to a southward shifting eddy-driven jet. However, due to strong temperature gradients and variable flow patterns, Greenland blocking is linked to increased forecast uncertainty of T2m over Europe (reduced predictability). Second, we show that forecast uncertainty of weather regimes is modulated via the stratospheric polar vortex. Weak polar vortex states tend to reduce regime-uncertainty, for example, due to more frequent predicted occurrence of Greenland blocking. These regime changes are associated with increased T2m uncertainty over Europe.
Fil: Spaeth, J.. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; Alemania
Fil: Rupp, P.. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; Alemania
Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Karlsruher Institut für Technologie; Alemania
Fil: Grams, C. M.. Karlsruher Institut für Technologie; Alemania. Meteoswiss; Suiza
Fil: Birner, T.. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; Alemania. Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt; Alemania
Materia
PREDICTABILITY
POLAR VORTEX
ENSEMBLE SPREAD
WEATHER REGIMES
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/261258
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Flow‐Dependence of Ensemble Spread of Subseasonal Forecasts Explored via North Atlantic‐European Weather RegimesSpaeth, J.Rupp, P.Osman, MarisolGrams, C. M.Birner, T.PREDICTABILITYPOLAR VORTEXENSEMBLE SPREADWEATHER REGIMEShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Atmospheric prediction at 2–6 weeks lead time (so-called subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales) entails large forecast uncertainty. Here we investigate the flow-dependence of this uncertainty during Boreal winter. We categorize the large-scale flow using North Atlantic-European weather regimes. First, we show that forecast uncertainty of near-surface geopotential height (Z1000) and temperature (T2m) are strongly sensitive to the prevailing regime. Specifically, forecast uncertainty of Z1000 reduces over northern Europe following Greenland Blocking (enhanced predictability) due to a southward shifting eddy-driven jet. However, due to strong temperature gradients and variable flow patterns, Greenland blocking is linked to increased forecast uncertainty of T2m over Europe (reduced predictability). Second, we show that forecast uncertainty of weather regimes is modulated via the stratospheric polar vortex. Weak polar vortex states tend to reduce regime-uncertainty, for example, due to more frequent predicted occurrence of Greenland blocking. These regime changes are associated with increased T2m uncertainty over Europe.Fil: Spaeth, J.. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; AlemaniaFil: Rupp, P.. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; AlemaniaFil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Karlsruher Institut für Technologie; AlemaniaFil: Grams, C. M.. Karlsruher Institut für Technologie; Alemania. Meteoswiss; SuizaFil: Birner, T.. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; Alemania. Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt; AlemaniaAmerican Geophysical Union2024-07info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/261258Spaeth, J.; Rupp, P.; Osman, Marisol; Grams, C. M.; Birner, T.; Flow‐Dependence of Ensemble Spread of Subseasonal Forecasts Explored via North Atlantic‐European Weather Regimes; American Geophysical Union; Geophysical Research Letters; 51; 14; 7-2024; 1-90094-8276CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL109733info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2024GL109733info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T09:58:58Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/261258instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 09:58:59.303CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Flow‐Dependence of Ensemble Spread of Subseasonal Forecasts Explored via North Atlantic‐European Weather Regimes
title Flow‐Dependence of Ensemble Spread of Subseasonal Forecasts Explored via North Atlantic‐European Weather Regimes
spellingShingle Flow‐Dependence of Ensemble Spread of Subseasonal Forecasts Explored via North Atlantic‐European Weather Regimes
Spaeth, J.
PREDICTABILITY
POLAR VORTEX
ENSEMBLE SPREAD
WEATHER REGIMES
title_short Flow‐Dependence of Ensemble Spread of Subseasonal Forecasts Explored via North Atlantic‐European Weather Regimes
title_full Flow‐Dependence of Ensemble Spread of Subseasonal Forecasts Explored via North Atlantic‐European Weather Regimes
title_fullStr Flow‐Dependence of Ensemble Spread of Subseasonal Forecasts Explored via North Atlantic‐European Weather Regimes
title_full_unstemmed Flow‐Dependence of Ensemble Spread of Subseasonal Forecasts Explored via North Atlantic‐European Weather Regimes
title_sort Flow‐Dependence of Ensemble Spread of Subseasonal Forecasts Explored via North Atlantic‐European Weather Regimes
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Spaeth, J.
Rupp, P.
Osman, Marisol
Grams, C. M.
Birner, T.
author Spaeth, J.
author_facet Spaeth, J.
Rupp, P.
Osman, Marisol
Grams, C. M.
Birner, T.
author_role author
author2 Rupp, P.
Osman, Marisol
Grams, C. M.
Birner, T.
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv PREDICTABILITY
POLAR VORTEX
ENSEMBLE SPREAD
WEATHER REGIMES
topic PREDICTABILITY
POLAR VORTEX
ENSEMBLE SPREAD
WEATHER REGIMES
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Atmospheric prediction at 2–6 weeks lead time (so-called subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales) entails large forecast uncertainty. Here we investigate the flow-dependence of this uncertainty during Boreal winter. We categorize the large-scale flow using North Atlantic-European weather regimes. First, we show that forecast uncertainty of near-surface geopotential height (Z1000) and temperature (T2m) are strongly sensitive to the prevailing regime. Specifically, forecast uncertainty of Z1000 reduces over northern Europe following Greenland Blocking (enhanced predictability) due to a southward shifting eddy-driven jet. However, due to strong temperature gradients and variable flow patterns, Greenland blocking is linked to increased forecast uncertainty of T2m over Europe (reduced predictability). Second, we show that forecast uncertainty of weather regimes is modulated via the stratospheric polar vortex. Weak polar vortex states tend to reduce regime-uncertainty, for example, due to more frequent predicted occurrence of Greenland blocking. These regime changes are associated with increased T2m uncertainty over Europe.
Fil: Spaeth, J.. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; Alemania
Fil: Rupp, P.. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; Alemania
Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Karlsruher Institut für Technologie; Alemania
Fil: Grams, C. M.. Karlsruher Institut für Technologie; Alemania. Meteoswiss; Suiza
Fil: Birner, T.. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; Alemania. Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt; Alemania
description Atmospheric prediction at 2–6 weeks lead time (so-called subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales) entails large forecast uncertainty. Here we investigate the flow-dependence of this uncertainty during Boreal winter. We categorize the large-scale flow using North Atlantic-European weather regimes. First, we show that forecast uncertainty of near-surface geopotential height (Z1000) and temperature (T2m) are strongly sensitive to the prevailing regime. Specifically, forecast uncertainty of Z1000 reduces over northern Europe following Greenland Blocking (enhanced predictability) due to a southward shifting eddy-driven jet. However, due to strong temperature gradients and variable flow patterns, Greenland blocking is linked to increased forecast uncertainty of T2m over Europe (reduced predictability). Second, we show that forecast uncertainty of weather regimes is modulated via the stratospheric polar vortex. Weak polar vortex states tend to reduce regime-uncertainty, for example, due to more frequent predicted occurrence of Greenland blocking. These regime changes are associated with increased T2m uncertainty over Europe.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024-07
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/261258
Spaeth, J.; Rupp, P.; Osman, Marisol; Grams, C. M.; Birner, T.; Flow‐Dependence of Ensemble Spread of Subseasonal Forecasts Explored via North Atlantic‐European Weather Regimes; American Geophysical Union; Geophysical Research Letters; 51; 14; 7-2024; 1-9
0094-8276
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/261258
identifier_str_mv Spaeth, J.; Rupp, P.; Osman, Marisol; Grams, C. M.; Birner, T.; Flow‐Dependence of Ensemble Spread of Subseasonal Forecasts Explored via North Atlantic‐European Weather Regimes; American Geophysical Union; Geophysical Research Letters; 51; 14; 7-2024; 1-9
0094-8276
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL109733
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2024GL109733
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Geophysical Union
publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Geophysical Union
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.13397

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