Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitation

Autores
Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A.; Barreto, Naurinete J. C.; Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián; Osman, Marisol; Coelho, Caio A. S.
Año de publicación
2021
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Precipitation predictions in the sub-seasonal timescale are very important for several sectors such as agriculture and energy in regions of South America that are very much affected by precipitation extremes, both excess and lack of rain. The aim of the present study is to investigate the ability of two S2S project models (ECMWF and NCEP) to detect the Southern Hemisphere teleconnections in model hindcasts and the associated anomalous precipitation over South America. The period of analyses is 1999–2010 for the austral summer season (December–January–February). Both models represented adequately the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) pattern in predictions up to 4 weeks ahead and the Pacific South America (PSA) pattern up to 3 weeks. Atmospheric variables of observed extreme cases of SAM were well predicted by the two models, 2 and 3 weeks in advance. The models predicted well atmospheric variables in observed extreme cases of PSA, 2 weeks in advance and with less intensity in the third week. Precipitation anomaly signals associated with these modes were well predicted 2 weeks in advance, although with different intensities. The good ability of the models hindcast in predicting teleconnection patterns and precipitation anomalies over South America provides more confidence to use predictions at sub-seasonal timescale.
Fil: Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Barreto, Naurinete J. C.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Coelho, Caio A. S.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Materia
PRECIPITATION ANOMALY
PSA
S2S
SAM
SOUTH AMERICA
SUB-SEASONAL PREDICTIONS
TELECONNECTIONS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/163530
Acceder
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network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitationCavalcanti, Iracema F. A.Barreto, Naurinete J. C.Alvarez, Mariano SebastiánOsman, MarisolCoelho, Caio A. S.PRECIPITATION ANOMALYPSAS2SSAMSOUTH AMERICASUB-SEASONAL PREDICTIONSTELECONNECTIONShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Precipitation predictions in the sub-seasonal timescale are very important for several sectors such as agriculture and energy in regions of South America that are very much affected by precipitation extremes, both excess and lack of rain. The aim of the present study is to investigate the ability of two S2S project models (ECMWF and NCEP) to detect the Southern Hemisphere teleconnections in model hindcasts and the associated anomalous precipitation over South America. The period of analyses is 1999–2010 for the austral summer season (December–January–February). Both models represented adequately the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) pattern in predictions up to 4 weeks ahead and the Pacific South America (PSA) pattern up to 3 weeks. Atmospheric variables of observed extreme cases of SAM were well predicted by the two models, 2 and 3 weeks in advance. The models predicted well atmospheric variables in observed extreme cases of PSA, 2 weeks in advance and with less intensity in the third week. Precipitation anomaly signals associated with these modes were well predicted 2 weeks in advance, although with different intensities. The good ability of the models hindcast in predicting teleconnection patterns and precipitation anomalies over South America provides more confidence to use predictions at sub-seasonal timescale.Fil: Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Barreto, Naurinete J. C.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Coelho, Caio A. S.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilJohn Wiley & Sons Inc.2021-07info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/163530Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A.; Barreto, Naurinete J. C.; Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián; Osman, Marisol; Coelho, Caio A. S.; Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitation; John Wiley & Sons Inc.; Meteorological Applications; 28; 4; 7-2021; 1-181350-4827CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.2011info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/met.2011info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T15:37:48Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/163530instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 15:37:48.629CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitation
title Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitation
spellingShingle Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitation
Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A.
PRECIPITATION ANOMALY
PSA
S2S
SAM
SOUTH AMERICA
SUB-SEASONAL PREDICTIONS
TELECONNECTIONS
title_short Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitation
title_full Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitation
title_fullStr Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitation
title_full_unstemmed Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitation
title_sort Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitation
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A.
Barreto, Naurinete J. C.
Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián
Osman, Marisol
Coelho, Caio A. S.
author Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A.
author_facet Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A.
Barreto, Naurinete J. C.
Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián
Osman, Marisol
Coelho, Caio A. S.
author_role author
author2 Barreto, Naurinete J. C.
Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián
Osman, Marisol
Coelho, Caio A. S.
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv PRECIPITATION ANOMALY
PSA
S2S
SAM
SOUTH AMERICA
SUB-SEASONAL PREDICTIONS
TELECONNECTIONS
topic PRECIPITATION ANOMALY
PSA
S2S
SAM
SOUTH AMERICA
SUB-SEASONAL PREDICTIONS
TELECONNECTIONS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Precipitation predictions in the sub-seasonal timescale are very important for several sectors such as agriculture and energy in regions of South America that are very much affected by precipitation extremes, both excess and lack of rain. The aim of the present study is to investigate the ability of two S2S project models (ECMWF and NCEP) to detect the Southern Hemisphere teleconnections in model hindcasts and the associated anomalous precipitation over South America. The period of analyses is 1999–2010 for the austral summer season (December–January–February). Both models represented adequately the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) pattern in predictions up to 4 weeks ahead and the Pacific South America (PSA) pattern up to 3 weeks. Atmospheric variables of observed extreme cases of SAM were well predicted by the two models, 2 and 3 weeks in advance. The models predicted well atmospheric variables in observed extreme cases of PSA, 2 weeks in advance and with less intensity in the third week. Precipitation anomaly signals associated with these modes were well predicted 2 weeks in advance, although with different intensities. The good ability of the models hindcast in predicting teleconnection patterns and precipitation anomalies over South America provides more confidence to use predictions at sub-seasonal timescale.
Fil: Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Barreto, Naurinete J. C.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Coelho, Caio A. S.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
description Precipitation predictions in the sub-seasonal timescale are very important for several sectors such as agriculture and energy in regions of South America that are very much affected by precipitation extremes, both excess and lack of rain. The aim of the present study is to investigate the ability of two S2S project models (ECMWF and NCEP) to detect the Southern Hemisphere teleconnections in model hindcasts and the associated anomalous precipitation over South America. The period of analyses is 1999–2010 for the austral summer season (December–January–February). Both models represented adequately the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) pattern in predictions up to 4 weeks ahead and the Pacific South America (PSA) pattern up to 3 weeks. Atmospheric variables of observed extreme cases of SAM were well predicted by the two models, 2 and 3 weeks in advance. The models predicted well atmospheric variables in observed extreme cases of PSA, 2 weeks in advance and with less intensity in the third week. Precipitation anomaly signals associated with these modes were well predicted 2 weeks in advance, although with different intensities. The good ability of the models hindcast in predicting teleconnection patterns and precipitation anomalies over South America provides more confidence to use predictions at sub-seasonal timescale.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-07
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/163530
Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A.; Barreto, Naurinete J. C.; Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián; Osman, Marisol; Coelho, Caio A. S.; Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitation; John Wiley & Sons Inc.; Meteorological Applications; 28; 4; 7-2021; 1-18
1350-4827
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/163530
identifier_str_mv Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A.; Barreto, Naurinete J. C.; Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián; Osman, Marisol; Coelho, Caio A. S.; Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitation; John Wiley & Sons Inc.; Meteorological Applications; 28; 4; 7-2021; 1-18
1350-4827
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.2011
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/met.2011
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Inc.
publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Inc.
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.22299

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