Cyclical components of local rainfall data
- Autores
- Mentz, Raul Pedro; D'Urso, M.A.; Jarma, Nora Monica; Mentz, G.B.
- Año de publicación
- 2000
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- This paper reports on the use of a comparatively simple statistical methodology to study local short time series rainfall data. The objective is to help in agricultural planning, by disminishing the risk associated with some uncertainties affecting this business activity. The analysis starts by assming a model of unobservable components, trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular, that is well known in many areas of application. When series are in the realm of business and economics, the statistical methods popularized by the US Census Bureau and US National Bureau of Economic Research are used for seasonal and cyclical estimation, respectively. The flexibility of these methods makes them good candiates to be applied in the meteorological context, and this is done in this paper for a selection of monthly rainfall time series. Use of the results to help in analysing and forecasting cyclical components is emphasized. The results are interesting. An agricultural entrepreneur, or a group of them located in a single ggeografical region, will profit by systematically collecting information (monthly in our work) about rainfall, and adopting the scheme of analysis described in this paper.
Fil: Mentz, Raul Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto Superior de Estudios Sociales. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto Superior de Estudios Sociales; Argentina
Fil: D'Urso, M.A.. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina
Fil: Jarma, Nora Monica. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán; Argentina
Fil: Mentz, G.B.. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina - Materia
-
RAINFALL IN ARGENTINA
UNOBSERVABLE COMPONENTS
X-12-ARIMA SEASONAL PROCEDURE
DATING CYCLICAL TURNING POINTS - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/136086
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Cyclical components of local rainfall dataMentz, Raul PedroD'Urso, M.A.Jarma, Nora MonicaMentz, G.B.RAINFALL IN ARGENTINAUNOBSERVABLE COMPONENTSX-12-ARIMA SEASONAL PROCEDUREDATING CYCLICAL TURNING POINTShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1This paper reports on the use of a comparatively simple statistical methodology to study local short time series rainfall data. The objective is to help in agricultural planning, by disminishing the risk associated with some uncertainties affecting this business activity. The analysis starts by assming a model of unobservable components, trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular, that is well known in many areas of application. When series are in the realm of business and economics, the statistical methods popularized by the US Census Bureau and US National Bureau of Economic Research are used for seasonal and cyclical estimation, respectively. The flexibility of these methods makes them good candiates to be applied in the meteorological context, and this is done in this paper for a selection of monthly rainfall time series. Use of the results to help in analysing and forecasting cyclical components is emphasized. The results are interesting. An agricultural entrepreneur, or a group of them located in a single ggeografical region, will profit by systematically collecting information (monthly in our work) about rainfall, and adopting the scheme of analysis described in this paper.Fil: Mentz, Raul Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto Superior de Estudios Sociales. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto Superior de Estudios Sociales; ArgentinaFil: D'Urso, M.A.. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; ArgentinaFil: Jarma, Nora Monica. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán; ArgentinaFil: Mentz, G.B.. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; ArgentinaJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd2000-02info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/136086Mentz, Raul Pedro; D'Urso, M.A.; Jarma, Nora Monica; Mentz, G.B.; Cyclical components of local rainfall data; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 20; 2; 2-2000; 211-2280899-8418CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/%28SICI%291097-0088%28200002%2920%3A2%3C211%3A%3AAID-JOC462%3E3.0.CO%3B2-Pinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(200002)20:2%3C211::AID-JOC462%3E3.0.CO;2-Pinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:52:54Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/136086instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:52:54.446CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Cyclical components of local rainfall data |
title |
Cyclical components of local rainfall data |
spellingShingle |
Cyclical components of local rainfall data Mentz, Raul Pedro RAINFALL IN ARGENTINA UNOBSERVABLE COMPONENTS X-12-ARIMA SEASONAL PROCEDURE DATING CYCLICAL TURNING POINTS |
title_short |
Cyclical components of local rainfall data |
title_full |
Cyclical components of local rainfall data |
title_fullStr |
Cyclical components of local rainfall data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Cyclical components of local rainfall data |
title_sort |
Cyclical components of local rainfall data |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Mentz, Raul Pedro D'Urso, M.A. Jarma, Nora Monica Mentz, G.B. |
author |
Mentz, Raul Pedro |
author_facet |
Mentz, Raul Pedro D'Urso, M.A. Jarma, Nora Monica Mentz, G.B. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
D'Urso, M.A. Jarma, Nora Monica Mentz, G.B. |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
RAINFALL IN ARGENTINA UNOBSERVABLE COMPONENTS X-12-ARIMA SEASONAL PROCEDURE DATING CYCLICAL TURNING POINTS |
topic |
RAINFALL IN ARGENTINA UNOBSERVABLE COMPONENTS X-12-ARIMA SEASONAL PROCEDURE DATING CYCLICAL TURNING POINTS |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.1 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
This paper reports on the use of a comparatively simple statistical methodology to study local short time series rainfall data. The objective is to help in agricultural planning, by disminishing the risk associated with some uncertainties affecting this business activity. The analysis starts by assming a model of unobservable components, trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular, that is well known in many areas of application. When series are in the realm of business and economics, the statistical methods popularized by the US Census Bureau and US National Bureau of Economic Research are used for seasonal and cyclical estimation, respectively. The flexibility of these methods makes them good candiates to be applied in the meteorological context, and this is done in this paper for a selection of monthly rainfall time series. Use of the results to help in analysing and forecasting cyclical components is emphasized. The results are interesting. An agricultural entrepreneur, or a group of them located in a single ggeografical region, will profit by systematically collecting information (monthly in our work) about rainfall, and adopting the scheme of analysis described in this paper. Fil: Mentz, Raul Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto Superior de Estudios Sociales. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto Superior de Estudios Sociales; Argentina Fil: D'Urso, M.A.. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina Fil: Jarma, Nora Monica. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán; Argentina Fil: Mentz, G.B.. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina |
description |
This paper reports on the use of a comparatively simple statistical methodology to study local short time series rainfall data. The objective is to help in agricultural planning, by disminishing the risk associated with some uncertainties affecting this business activity. The analysis starts by assming a model of unobservable components, trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular, that is well known in many areas of application. When series are in the realm of business and economics, the statistical methods popularized by the US Census Bureau and US National Bureau of Economic Research are used for seasonal and cyclical estimation, respectively. The flexibility of these methods makes them good candiates to be applied in the meteorological context, and this is done in this paper for a selection of monthly rainfall time series. Use of the results to help in analysing and forecasting cyclical components is emphasized. The results are interesting. An agricultural entrepreneur, or a group of them located in a single ggeografical region, will profit by systematically collecting information (monthly in our work) about rainfall, and adopting the scheme of analysis described in this paper. |
publishDate |
2000 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2000-02 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/136086 Mentz, Raul Pedro; D'Urso, M.A.; Jarma, Nora Monica; Mentz, G.B.; Cyclical components of local rainfall data; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 20; 2; 2-2000; 211-228 0899-8418 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/136086 |
identifier_str_mv |
Mentz, Raul Pedro; D'Urso, M.A.; Jarma, Nora Monica; Mentz, G.B.; Cyclical components of local rainfall data; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 20; 2; 2-2000; 211-228 0899-8418 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/%28SICI%291097-0088%28200002%2920%3A2%3C211%3A%3AAID-JOC462%3E3.0.CO%3B2-P info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(200002)20:2%3C211::AID-JOC462%3E3.0.CO;2-P |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
John Wiley & Sons Ltd |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
John Wiley & Sons Ltd |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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13.070432 |