Cyclical components of local rainfall data

Autores
Mentz, Raul Pedro; D'Urso, M.A.; Jarma, Nora Monica; Mentz, G.B.
Año de publicación
2000
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
This paper reports on the use of a comparatively simple statistical methodology to study local short time series rainfall data. The objective is to help in agricultural planning, by disminishing the risk associated with some uncertainties affecting this business activity. The analysis starts by assming a model of unobservable components, trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular, that is well known in many areas of application. When series are in the realm of business and economics, the statistical methods popularized by the US Census Bureau and US National Bureau of Economic Research are used for seasonal and cyclical estimation, respectively. The flexibility of these methods makes them good candiates to be applied in the meteorological context, and this is done in this paper for a selection of monthly rainfall time series. Use of the results to help in analysing and forecasting cyclical components is emphasized. The results are interesting. An agricultural entrepreneur, or a group of them located in a single ggeografical region, will profit by systematically collecting information (monthly in our work) about rainfall, and adopting the scheme of analysis described in this paper.
Fil: Mentz, Raul Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto Superior de Estudios Sociales. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto Superior de Estudios Sociales; Argentina
Fil: D'Urso, M.A.. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina
Fil: Jarma, Nora Monica. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán; Argentina
Fil: Mentz, G.B.. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina
Materia
RAINFALL IN ARGENTINA
UNOBSERVABLE COMPONENTS
X-12-ARIMA SEASONAL PROCEDURE
DATING CYCLICAL TURNING POINTS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/136086
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/136086
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Cyclical components of local rainfall dataMentz, Raul PedroD'Urso, M.A.Jarma, Nora MonicaMentz, G.B.RAINFALL IN ARGENTINAUNOBSERVABLE COMPONENTSX-12-ARIMA SEASONAL PROCEDUREDATING CYCLICAL TURNING POINTShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1This paper reports on the use of a comparatively simple statistical methodology to study local short time series rainfall data. The objective is to help in agricultural planning, by disminishing the risk associated with some uncertainties affecting this business activity. The analysis starts by assming a model of unobservable components, trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular, that is well known in many areas of application. When series are in the realm of business and economics, the statistical methods popularized by the US Census Bureau and US National Bureau of Economic Research are used for seasonal and cyclical estimation, respectively. The flexibility of these methods makes them good candiates to be applied in the meteorological context, and this is done in this paper for a selection of monthly rainfall time series. Use of the results to help in analysing and forecasting cyclical components is emphasized. The results are interesting. An agricultural entrepreneur, or a group of them located in a single ggeografical region, will profit by systematically collecting information (monthly in our work) about rainfall, and adopting the scheme of analysis described in this paper.Fil: Mentz, Raul Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto Superior de Estudios Sociales. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto Superior de Estudios Sociales; ArgentinaFil: D'Urso, M.A.. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; ArgentinaFil: Jarma, Nora Monica. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán; ArgentinaFil: Mentz, G.B.. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; ArgentinaJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd2000-02info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/136086Mentz, Raul Pedro; D'Urso, M.A.; Jarma, Nora Monica; Mentz, G.B.; Cyclical components of local rainfall data; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 20; 2; 2-2000; 211-2280899-8418CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/%28SICI%291097-0088%28200002%2920%3A2%3C211%3A%3AAID-JOC462%3E3.0.CO%3B2-Pinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(200002)20:2%3C211::AID-JOC462%3E3.0.CO;2-Pinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T11:22:19Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/136086instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 11:22:19.335CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Cyclical components of local rainfall data
title Cyclical components of local rainfall data
spellingShingle Cyclical components of local rainfall data
Mentz, Raul Pedro
RAINFALL IN ARGENTINA
UNOBSERVABLE COMPONENTS
X-12-ARIMA SEASONAL PROCEDURE
DATING CYCLICAL TURNING POINTS
title_short Cyclical components of local rainfall data
title_full Cyclical components of local rainfall data
title_fullStr Cyclical components of local rainfall data
title_full_unstemmed Cyclical components of local rainfall data
title_sort Cyclical components of local rainfall data
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Mentz, Raul Pedro
D'Urso, M.A.
Jarma, Nora Monica
Mentz, G.B.
author Mentz, Raul Pedro
author_facet Mentz, Raul Pedro
D'Urso, M.A.
Jarma, Nora Monica
Mentz, G.B.
author_role author
author2 D'Urso, M.A.
Jarma, Nora Monica
Mentz, G.B.
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv RAINFALL IN ARGENTINA
UNOBSERVABLE COMPONENTS
X-12-ARIMA SEASONAL PROCEDURE
DATING CYCLICAL TURNING POINTS
topic RAINFALL IN ARGENTINA
UNOBSERVABLE COMPONENTS
X-12-ARIMA SEASONAL PROCEDURE
DATING CYCLICAL TURNING POINTS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.1
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv This paper reports on the use of a comparatively simple statistical methodology to study local short time series rainfall data. The objective is to help in agricultural planning, by disminishing the risk associated with some uncertainties affecting this business activity. The analysis starts by assming a model of unobservable components, trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular, that is well known in many areas of application. When series are in the realm of business and economics, the statistical methods popularized by the US Census Bureau and US National Bureau of Economic Research are used for seasonal and cyclical estimation, respectively. The flexibility of these methods makes them good candiates to be applied in the meteorological context, and this is done in this paper for a selection of monthly rainfall time series. Use of the results to help in analysing and forecasting cyclical components is emphasized. The results are interesting. An agricultural entrepreneur, or a group of them located in a single ggeografical region, will profit by systematically collecting information (monthly in our work) about rainfall, and adopting the scheme of analysis described in this paper.
Fil: Mentz, Raul Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto Superior de Estudios Sociales. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto Superior de Estudios Sociales; Argentina
Fil: D'Urso, M.A.. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina
Fil: Jarma, Nora Monica. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán; Argentina
Fil: Mentz, G.B.. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina
description This paper reports on the use of a comparatively simple statistical methodology to study local short time series rainfall data. The objective is to help in agricultural planning, by disminishing the risk associated with some uncertainties affecting this business activity. The analysis starts by assming a model of unobservable components, trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular, that is well known in many areas of application. When series are in the realm of business and economics, the statistical methods popularized by the US Census Bureau and US National Bureau of Economic Research are used for seasonal and cyclical estimation, respectively. The flexibility of these methods makes them good candiates to be applied in the meteorological context, and this is done in this paper for a selection of monthly rainfall time series. Use of the results to help in analysing and forecasting cyclical components is emphasized. The results are interesting. An agricultural entrepreneur, or a group of them located in a single ggeografical region, will profit by systematically collecting information (monthly in our work) about rainfall, and adopting the scheme of analysis described in this paper.
publishDate 2000
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2000-02
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/136086
Mentz, Raul Pedro; D'Urso, M.A.; Jarma, Nora Monica; Mentz, G.B.; Cyclical components of local rainfall data; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 20; 2; 2-2000; 211-228
0899-8418
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/136086
identifier_str_mv Mentz, Raul Pedro; D'Urso, M.A.; Jarma, Nora Monica; Mentz, G.B.; Cyclical components of local rainfall data; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 20; 2; 2-2000; 211-228
0899-8418
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/%28SICI%291097-0088%28200002%2920%3A2%3C211%3A%3AAID-JOC462%3E3.0.CO%3B2-P
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(200002)20:2%3C211::AID-JOC462%3E3.0.CO;2-P
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Ltd
publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Ltd
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 12.982451

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