Influence of Anthropogenically-Forced Global Warming and Natural Climate Variability in the Rainfall Changes Observed Over the South American Altiplano

Autores
Vera, Carolina Susana; Díaz, Leandro Baltasar; Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
Año de publicación
2019
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Changes in the summer rainfall and 200-hPa zonal winds (U200) in the South American Altiplano are studied from 1902 to 2018 using three different reanalysis datasets and simulations from 14 climate models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). No significant trend in rainfall was identified from GPCC reanalysis data over that period. On the other hand, regional U200 trends estimated from 20C and ERA20C reanalyses and from CMIP5 Historical simulations are significant and positive over the 1902-2005 period. However, the trends seem to be dependent on the reanalysis dataset and period considered. While no significant U200 trend is detected in simulations forced only by external natural sources, the mean trend is positive and significant in simulations forced only by the increment of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, a signal associated with the anthropogenic forcing of climate change has been detected in U200 trends in the Altiplano, but it is weak as compared with the internal climate variability. Singular value decomposition analyses based on both reanalyzed and simulated data were performed to describe the co-variability between rainfall in the Altiplano, regional U200 and global sea surface temperature (SST). The analysis confirms that negative rainfall anomalies in the Altiplano, associated with positive U200 anomalies, are related with positive SST anomalies mainly in the tropical Pacific-Indian Oceans. Simulations can reproduce observed relationships and confirm that natural variability explains the observed year-to-year variability. Simulations also confirm that anthropogenic forcing is a necessary condition to explain the positive trends detected in the co-variability between tropical SST and regional U200 anomalies. However, the large influence exerted by the South American Monsoon over the region can also affect sign and magnitude of the changes in the Altiplano. No significant relationship was found from CMIP5 simulations between poleward displacements of the global Hadley cell and regional U200 changes. Instead, South American Hadley cell displacements are significantly correlated with regional U200 changes. The latter might be an additional evidence of the combined influence of both tropical surface ocean and South America Monsoon on the circulation changes in the Altiplano in the global warming context.
Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Materia
ALTIPLANO
ANDES
CLIMATE CHANGE
CMIP5
RAINFALL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
WIND
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/121254
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/121254
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Influence of Anthropogenically-Forced Global Warming and Natural Climate Variability in the Rainfall Changes Observed Over the South American AltiplanoVera, Carolina SusanaDíaz, Leandro BaltasarSaurral, Ramiro IgnacioALTIPLANOANDESCLIMATE CHANGECMIP5RAINFALLSEA SURFACE TEMPERATUREWINDhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Changes in the summer rainfall and 200-hPa zonal winds (U200) in the South American Altiplano are studied from 1902 to 2018 using three different reanalysis datasets and simulations from 14 climate models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). No significant trend in rainfall was identified from GPCC reanalysis data over that period. On the other hand, regional U200 trends estimated from 20C and ERA20C reanalyses and from CMIP5 Historical simulations are significant and positive over the 1902-2005 period. However, the trends seem to be dependent on the reanalysis dataset and period considered. While no significant U200 trend is detected in simulations forced only by external natural sources, the mean trend is positive and significant in simulations forced only by the increment of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, a signal associated with the anthropogenic forcing of climate change has been detected in U200 trends in the Altiplano, but it is weak as compared with the internal climate variability. Singular value decomposition analyses based on both reanalyzed and simulated data were performed to describe the co-variability between rainfall in the Altiplano, regional U200 and global sea surface temperature (SST). The analysis confirms that negative rainfall anomalies in the Altiplano, associated with positive U200 anomalies, are related with positive SST anomalies mainly in the tropical Pacific-Indian Oceans. Simulations can reproduce observed relationships and confirm that natural variability explains the observed year-to-year variability. Simulations also confirm that anthropogenic forcing is a necessary condition to explain the positive trends detected in the co-variability between tropical SST and regional U200 anomalies. However, the large influence exerted by the South American Monsoon over the region can also affect sign and magnitude of the changes in the Altiplano. No significant relationship was found from CMIP5 simulations between poleward displacements of the global Hadley cell and regional U200 changes. Instead, South American Hadley cell displacements are significantly correlated with regional U200 changes. The latter might be an additional evidence of the combined influence of both tropical surface ocean and South America Monsoon on the circulation changes in the Altiplano in the global warming context.Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFrontiers Media S.A.2019-06info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/121254Vera, Carolina Susana; Díaz, Leandro Baltasar; Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Influence of Anthropogenically-Forced Global Warming and Natural Climate Variability in the Rainfall Changes Observed Over the South American Altiplano; Frontiers Media S.A.; Frontiers in Environmental Science; 7; 6-2019; 1-142296-665XCONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00087/fullinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00087info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T11:06:43Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/121254instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 11:06:43.51CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Influence of Anthropogenically-Forced Global Warming and Natural Climate Variability in the Rainfall Changes Observed Over the South American Altiplano
title Influence of Anthropogenically-Forced Global Warming and Natural Climate Variability in the Rainfall Changes Observed Over the South American Altiplano
spellingShingle Influence of Anthropogenically-Forced Global Warming and Natural Climate Variability in the Rainfall Changes Observed Over the South American Altiplano
Vera, Carolina Susana
ALTIPLANO
ANDES
CLIMATE CHANGE
CMIP5
RAINFALL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
WIND
title_short Influence of Anthropogenically-Forced Global Warming and Natural Climate Variability in the Rainfall Changes Observed Over the South American Altiplano
title_full Influence of Anthropogenically-Forced Global Warming and Natural Climate Variability in the Rainfall Changes Observed Over the South American Altiplano
title_fullStr Influence of Anthropogenically-Forced Global Warming and Natural Climate Variability in the Rainfall Changes Observed Over the South American Altiplano
title_full_unstemmed Influence of Anthropogenically-Forced Global Warming and Natural Climate Variability in the Rainfall Changes Observed Over the South American Altiplano
title_sort Influence of Anthropogenically-Forced Global Warming and Natural Climate Variability in the Rainfall Changes Observed Over the South American Altiplano
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Vera, Carolina Susana
Díaz, Leandro Baltasar
Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
author Vera, Carolina Susana
author_facet Vera, Carolina Susana
Díaz, Leandro Baltasar
Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
author_role author
author2 Díaz, Leandro Baltasar
Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv ALTIPLANO
ANDES
CLIMATE CHANGE
CMIP5
RAINFALL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
WIND
topic ALTIPLANO
ANDES
CLIMATE CHANGE
CMIP5
RAINFALL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
WIND
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Changes in the summer rainfall and 200-hPa zonal winds (U200) in the South American Altiplano are studied from 1902 to 2018 using three different reanalysis datasets and simulations from 14 climate models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). No significant trend in rainfall was identified from GPCC reanalysis data over that period. On the other hand, regional U200 trends estimated from 20C and ERA20C reanalyses and from CMIP5 Historical simulations are significant and positive over the 1902-2005 period. However, the trends seem to be dependent on the reanalysis dataset and period considered. While no significant U200 trend is detected in simulations forced only by external natural sources, the mean trend is positive and significant in simulations forced only by the increment of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, a signal associated with the anthropogenic forcing of climate change has been detected in U200 trends in the Altiplano, but it is weak as compared with the internal climate variability. Singular value decomposition analyses based on both reanalyzed and simulated data were performed to describe the co-variability between rainfall in the Altiplano, regional U200 and global sea surface temperature (SST). The analysis confirms that negative rainfall anomalies in the Altiplano, associated with positive U200 anomalies, are related with positive SST anomalies mainly in the tropical Pacific-Indian Oceans. Simulations can reproduce observed relationships and confirm that natural variability explains the observed year-to-year variability. Simulations also confirm that anthropogenic forcing is a necessary condition to explain the positive trends detected in the co-variability between tropical SST and regional U200 anomalies. However, the large influence exerted by the South American Monsoon over the region can also affect sign and magnitude of the changes in the Altiplano. No significant relationship was found from CMIP5 simulations between poleward displacements of the global Hadley cell and regional U200 changes. Instead, South American Hadley cell displacements are significantly correlated with regional U200 changes. The latter might be an additional evidence of the combined influence of both tropical surface ocean and South America Monsoon on the circulation changes in the Altiplano in the global warming context.
Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
description Changes in the summer rainfall and 200-hPa zonal winds (U200) in the South American Altiplano are studied from 1902 to 2018 using three different reanalysis datasets and simulations from 14 climate models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). No significant trend in rainfall was identified from GPCC reanalysis data over that period. On the other hand, regional U200 trends estimated from 20C and ERA20C reanalyses and from CMIP5 Historical simulations are significant and positive over the 1902-2005 period. However, the trends seem to be dependent on the reanalysis dataset and period considered. While no significant U200 trend is detected in simulations forced only by external natural sources, the mean trend is positive and significant in simulations forced only by the increment of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, a signal associated with the anthropogenic forcing of climate change has been detected in U200 trends in the Altiplano, but it is weak as compared with the internal climate variability. Singular value decomposition analyses based on both reanalyzed and simulated data were performed to describe the co-variability between rainfall in the Altiplano, regional U200 and global sea surface temperature (SST). The analysis confirms that negative rainfall anomalies in the Altiplano, associated with positive U200 anomalies, are related with positive SST anomalies mainly in the tropical Pacific-Indian Oceans. Simulations can reproduce observed relationships and confirm that natural variability explains the observed year-to-year variability. Simulations also confirm that anthropogenic forcing is a necessary condition to explain the positive trends detected in the co-variability between tropical SST and regional U200 anomalies. However, the large influence exerted by the South American Monsoon over the region can also affect sign and magnitude of the changes in the Altiplano. No significant relationship was found from CMIP5 simulations between poleward displacements of the global Hadley cell and regional U200 changes. Instead, South American Hadley cell displacements are significantly correlated with regional U200 changes. The latter might be an additional evidence of the combined influence of both tropical surface ocean and South America Monsoon on the circulation changes in the Altiplano in the global warming context.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019-06
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/121254
Vera, Carolina Susana; Díaz, Leandro Baltasar; Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Influence of Anthropogenically-Forced Global Warming and Natural Climate Variability in the Rainfall Changes Observed Over the South American Altiplano; Frontiers Media S.A.; Frontiers in Environmental Science; 7; 6-2019; 1-14
2296-665X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/121254
identifier_str_mv Vera, Carolina Susana; Díaz, Leandro Baltasar; Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Influence of Anthropogenically-Forced Global Warming and Natural Climate Variability in the Rainfall Changes Observed Over the South American Altiplano; Frontiers Media S.A.; Frontiers in Environmental Science; 7; 6-2019; 1-14
2296-665X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00087/full
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00087
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Frontiers Media S.A.
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Frontiers Media S.A.
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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