Marriage as Insurance: Household Responses to Immigration Policy Uncertainty

Autores
Bonavida Foschiatti, Cristian Nicolás
Año de publicación
2026
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
documento de trabajo
Estado
versión enviada
Descripción
This paper examines whether marriage serves as a strategic response to immigration policy uncertainty. We study transitions into marriage among cohabiting binational couples—defined as unions between a U.S. citizen and a noncitizen partner—following the shift in immigration policy expectations during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign and the subsequent tightening of enforcement in 2017. Using ACS data from 2008 to 2019 and a difference-in-differences design, we compare marriage transitions among binational couples to those of homogeneous citizen couples. Immigration policy uncertainty increased marriage rates among binational couples by approximately 1.5–1.8 percentage points, or about 8-10 percent relative to pre-treatment levels. Event-study estimates show no differential pre-trends and indicate that the response began in 2016, prior to the formal reinstatement of Secure Communities. The effect is concentrated among likely unauthorized immigrants and individuals from targeted nationalities. The findings suggest that marriage functioned as a form of legal and economic insurance in response to heightened deportation risk.
Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales
Materia
Ciencias Económicas
Marriage
Immigration Policy
Household Formation
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Repositorio
SEDICI (UNLP)
Institución
Universidad Nacional de La Plata
OAI Identificador
oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/192157
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/192157
network_acronym_str SEDICI
repository_id_str 1329
network_name_str SEDICI (UNLP)
spelling Marriage as Insurance: Household Responses to Immigration Policy UncertaintyBonavida Foschiatti, Cristian NicolásCiencias EconómicasMarriageImmigration PolicyHousehold FormationThis paper examines whether marriage serves as a strategic response to immigration policy uncertainty. We study transitions into marriage among cohabiting binational couples—defined as unions between a U.S. citizen and a noncitizen partner—following the shift in immigration policy expectations during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign and the subsequent tightening of enforcement in 2017. Using ACS data from 2008 to 2019 and a difference-in-differences design, we compare marriage transitions among binational couples to those of homogeneous citizen couples. Immigration policy uncertainty increased marriage rates among binational couples by approximately 1.5–1.8 percentage points, or about 8-10 percent relative to pre-treatment levels. Event-study estimates show no differential pre-trends and indicate that the response began in 2016, prior to the formal reinstatement of Secure Communities. The effect is concentrated among likely unauthorized immigrants and individuals from targeted nationalities. The findings suggest that marriage functioned as a form of legal and economic insurance in response to heightened deportation risk.Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales2026-03info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionDocumento de trabajohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042info:ar-repo/semantics/documentoDeTrabajoapplication/pdfhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/192157enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1853-0168info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)instname:Universidad Nacional de La Platainstacron:UNLP2026-03-26T09:21:47Zoai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/192157Institucionalhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/oai/snrdalira@sedici.unlp.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:13292026-03-26 09:21:48.141SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Platafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Marriage as Insurance: Household Responses to Immigration Policy Uncertainty
title Marriage as Insurance: Household Responses to Immigration Policy Uncertainty
spellingShingle Marriage as Insurance: Household Responses to Immigration Policy Uncertainty
Bonavida Foschiatti, Cristian Nicolás
Ciencias Económicas
Marriage
Immigration Policy
Household Formation
title_short Marriage as Insurance: Household Responses to Immigration Policy Uncertainty
title_full Marriage as Insurance: Household Responses to Immigration Policy Uncertainty
title_fullStr Marriage as Insurance: Household Responses to Immigration Policy Uncertainty
title_full_unstemmed Marriage as Insurance: Household Responses to Immigration Policy Uncertainty
title_sort Marriage as Insurance: Household Responses to Immigration Policy Uncertainty
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Bonavida Foschiatti, Cristian Nicolás
author Bonavida Foschiatti, Cristian Nicolás
author_facet Bonavida Foschiatti, Cristian Nicolás
author_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Ciencias Económicas
Marriage
Immigration Policy
Household Formation
topic Ciencias Económicas
Marriage
Immigration Policy
Household Formation
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv This paper examines whether marriage serves as a strategic response to immigration policy uncertainty. We study transitions into marriage among cohabiting binational couples—defined as unions between a U.S. citizen and a noncitizen partner—following the shift in immigration policy expectations during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign and the subsequent tightening of enforcement in 2017. Using ACS data from 2008 to 2019 and a difference-in-differences design, we compare marriage transitions among binational couples to those of homogeneous citizen couples. Immigration policy uncertainty increased marriage rates among binational couples by approximately 1.5–1.8 percentage points, or about 8-10 percent relative to pre-treatment levels. Event-study estimates show no differential pre-trends and indicate that the response began in 2016, prior to the formal reinstatement of Secure Communities. The effect is concentrated among likely unauthorized immigrants and individuals from targeted nationalities. The findings suggest that marriage functioned as a form of legal and economic insurance in response to heightened deportation risk.
Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales
description This paper examines whether marriage serves as a strategic response to immigration policy uncertainty. We study transitions into marriage among cohabiting binational couples—defined as unions between a U.S. citizen and a noncitizen partner—following the shift in immigration policy expectations during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign and the subsequent tightening of enforcement in 2017. Using ACS data from 2008 to 2019 and a difference-in-differences design, we compare marriage transitions among binational couples to those of homogeneous citizen couples. Immigration policy uncertainty increased marriage rates among binational couples by approximately 1.5–1.8 percentage points, or about 8-10 percent relative to pre-treatment levels. Event-study estimates show no differential pre-trends and indicate that the response began in 2016, prior to the formal reinstatement of Secure Communities. The effect is concentrated among likely unauthorized immigrants and individuals from targeted nationalities. The findings suggest that marriage functioned as a form of legal and economic insurance in response to heightened deportation risk.
publishDate 2026
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2026-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion
Documento de trabajo
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042
info:ar-repo/semantics/documentoDeTrabajo
format workingPaper
status_str submittedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/192157
url http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/192157
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1853-0168
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)
instname:Universidad Nacional de La Plata
instacron:UNLP
reponame_str SEDICI (UNLP)
collection SEDICI (UNLP)
instname_str Universidad Nacional de La Plata
instacron_str UNLP
institution UNLP
repository.name.fl_str_mv SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Plata
repository.mail.fl_str_mv alira@sedici.unlp.edu.ar
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