Stability of expectations and severity of crises

Autores
Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo; Guzmán, Martín; Howitt, Peter
Año de publicación
2015
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
documento de conferencia
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
We show that the severity of banking and debt crises is negatively related to the volatility of GDP growth expectations. Series of expectations are built by using a stochastic-gain learning algorithm whose predictions match survey data on output growth expectations well. We construct several measures of severity of crises that capture output growth losses associated with crises. Our empirical analysis addresses Hyman Minsky’s theoretical conjecture (part of his so-called Financial Instability Hypothesis) that macroeconomic stability is conducive to high leverage, which in turn makes a crisis more severe once it happens.
Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
Materia
Ciencias Económicas
Expectations
Volatility
Financial crises
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Repositorio
SEDICI (UNLP)
Institución
Universidad Nacional de La Plata
OAI Identificador
oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/170380
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/170380
network_acronym_str SEDICI
repository_id_str 1329
network_name_str SEDICI (UNLP)
spelling Stability of expectations and severity of crisesGluzmann, Pablo AlfredoGuzmán, MartínHowitt, PeterCiencias EconómicasExpectationsVolatilityFinancial crisesWe show that the severity of banking and debt crises is negatively related to the volatility of GDP growth expectations. Series of expectations are built by using a stochastic-gain learning algorithm whose predictions match survey data on output growth expectations well. We construct several measures of severity of crises that capture output growth losses associated with crises. Our empirical analysis addresses Hyman Minsky’s theoretical conjecture (part of his so-called Financial Instability Hypothesis) that macroeconomic stability is conducive to high leverage, which in turn makes a crisis more severe once it happens.Facultad de Ciencias Económicas2015-11info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObjectinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionObjeto de conferenciahttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_5794info:ar-repo/semantics/documentoDeConferenciaapplication/pdfhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/170380enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/isbn/978-987-28590-3-9info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://bd.aaep.org.ar/anales/works/works2015/Gluzmann_AAEP2015.pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1852-0022info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)instname:Universidad Nacional de La Platainstacron:UNLP2025-09-03T11:15:15Zoai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/170380Institucionalhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/oai/snrdalira@sedici.unlp.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:13292025-09-03 11:15:15.458SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Platafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Stability of expectations and severity of crises
title Stability of expectations and severity of crises
spellingShingle Stability of expectations and severity of crises
Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo
Ciencias Económicas
Expectations
Volatility
Financial crises
title_short Stability of expectations and severity of crises
title_full Stability of expectations and severity of crises
title_fullStr Stability of expectations and severity of crises
title_full_unstemmed Stability of expectations and severity of crises
title_sort Stability of expectations and severity of crises
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo
Guzmán, Martín
Howitt, Peter
author Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo
author_facet Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo
Guzmán, Martín
Howitt, Peter
author_role author
author2 Guzmán, Martín
Howitt, Peter
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Ciencias Económicas
Expectations
Volatility
Financial crises
topic Ciencias Económicas
Expectations
Volatility
Financial crises
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv We show that the severity of banking and debt crises is negatively related to the volatility of GDP growth expectations. Series of expectations are built by using a stochastic-gain learning algorithm whose predictions match survey data on output growth expectations well. We construct several measures of severity of crises that capture output growth losses associated with crises. Our empirical analysis addresses Hyman Minsky’s theoretical conjecture (part of his so-called Financial Instability Hypothesis) that macroeconomic stability is conducive to high leverage, which in turn makes a crisis more severe once it happens.
Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
description We show that the severity of banking and debt crises is negatively related to the volatility of GDP growth expectations. Series of expectations are built by using a stochastic-gain learning algorithm whose predictions match survey data on output growth expectations well. We construct several measures of severity of crises that capture output growth losses associated with crises. Our empirical analysis addresses Hyman Minsky’s theoretical conjecture (part of his so-called Financial Instability Hypothesis) that macroeconomic stability is conducive to high leverage, which in turn makes a crisis more severe once it happens.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-11
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Objeto de conferencia
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_5794
info:ar-repo/semantics/documentoDeConferencia
format conferenceObject
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/170380
url http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/170380
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/isbn/978-987-28590-3-9
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://bd.aaep.org.ar/anales/works/works2015/Gluzmann_AAEP2015.pdf
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1852-0022
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)
instname:Universidad Nacional de La Plata
instacron:UNLP
reponame_str SEDICI (UNLP)
collection SEDICI (UNLP)
instname_str Universidad Nacional de La Plata
instacron_str UNLP
institution UNLP
repository.name.fl_str_mv SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Plata
repository.mail.fl_str_mv alira@sedici.unlp.edu.ar
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score 13.13397

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